May 22, 2023 7:40am
Shares and pricing as debt ceiling on-going “talks’ grapple to the mat anticipating a default?
My interpretation of the morning’s numbers is written to be informative; it’s built on what happened or will happen behind the headline today, not tomorrow or yesterday.
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8:00 a.m. edition
Remember that overnight and pre-open actions in futures don't necessarily translate into actual trading in the coming day’s session. My interpretation of the morning’s numbers is written to be informative; it’s built on what will happen behind the headlines today, not tomorrow or yesterday
Dow futures are DOWN -0.04% or (14 points), S&P futures are DOWN -0.10% or (-4 point) and NASDAQ futures are DOWN -0.20% or (-27 points) early in the pre-open – so far
Stock futures were little changed on Monday morning as traders monitored the negotiations over the U.S. debt ceiling,
Europe markets were mixed
Asia-Pacific markets mostly rose.
Henry’omics:
We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies …
Friday, indexes traded down as the Dow closed DOWN -109.28 points (-0.33%), the S&P closed DOWN -6.07 points (-0.14%) while the Nasdaq closed DOWN -30.94 points (-0.24%).
All three major averages capped the week with gains: the Dow +0.38%, the S&P 500 +1.65%, and the Nasdaq gained 3.04%.
Economic Data Docket: The upcoming week has a relatively light slate of economic data: Fed minutes on Wednesday, a second reading for Q1/23 GDP on Thursday and the personal consumption expenditures gauge, the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, on Friday.
Friday (5/19) … RegMed Investors’ (RMi) closing bell: “follow the weekly bouncing and alternating share pricings as negotiators halt debt ceiling talks. The top debt ceiling negotiator (Garret Graves, R-La.) for House Speaker Kevin McCarthy said Friday it was time to “press pause” on talks as negotiations with the White House which came to an abrupt standstill. Negotiations have become “just unreasonable” and that it was unclear when talks would resume. Another Republican negotiator, Rep. Patrick McHenry of North Carolina, said, “There is a “serious gap” between the sides.” … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/12968
Ebb and flow:
Q2/23 – May – 6 negative and 9 positive closes
· April ended - 1 holiday, 8 positive close and 11 negative closes
Q1/23 –
· March – ended with 10 positive and 13 negative closes
· February – 1 holiday, 2 vacation, 7 negative and 8 positive closes
· January – 2 holidays, 11 positive and 9 negative closes
Companies in my headlights – It’s your decision; I provide ideas and context: INDICATIONS
Risky week as debt ceiling throws share pricing to the wind - a wind sox needed.
The BOTTOM LINE:
I follow the dictum, quoting Churchill that “short words are best, and the old words when short are best of all, as I try to keep it simple and short!
As in the title, “overall exposure should remain modest. Consider taking partial profits on big winners – if any. Definitely have a default game plan in place.”
On Friday, “GOP negotiators suspended debt-ceiling talks, saying President Biden's White House was being unreasonable. At around the same time, a report came out stating that Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen told bank execs that more bank mergers may be needed. That hit regional bank stocks Friday, though they rose strongly for the week.” <IBD>
Quoting again, “Debt-ceiling negotiations are a lose-lose for equity investors at this point, as a failure to strike a deal will lead to an immediate recession, while a deal will strain liquidity from markets as the US Treasury issues trillions in new bonds, which are newly born.” <Jose Torres, Interactive Brokers>
What changes, everything re debt ceiling and nothing as far as “sector divergence, weak breadth with many equities riding the roller-coaster makes adding exposure an issue.”
Not a lot of stocks are offering buying opportunities at the moment.
As I stated, I wouldn’t buy into ANY rally or weakness, I’d be selling. Remember, it's not the news that matters, it's the market reaction to the news.
I also hate to be so negative or contrarian but, this is a NO spin zone and truth is its product; I can always be WRONG but, I am mostly EARLY!
At ANY time, this week, be ready to take partial profits and exit losers.
Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.
All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.
Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.
Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions securities referred to in this publication.
