August 3, 2023 4:53pm

Consensus, revenue beats, misses and share pricing response

News: -- Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS -$0.99) entered a collaboration and license agreement with Novartis (NVS) for the discovery, development and commercialization of a novel medicine for patients with lipoprotein(a), or Lp(a)-driven cardiovascular disease (CVD). This builds on the companies' existing collaboration focused on the development and commercialization of pelacarsen, which NVS is currently evaluating in a P3 cardiovascular outcome study. The next generation compound will be a potential follow-on to pelacarsen.

Pre-Open Indications: 2 Hits and 1 Miss

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Never leave an investor uninformed! 

If I have learned one thing as a former research analyst in a venture and public fund, operating executive, x-military officer and x-FBI, an adjunct (MBA) business school professor now a journalist; my life and your portfolio are largely tied to our knowledge of price movements and questioning pricing targets.

 

The Dow closed DOWN -66.63 points (-0.19%), the S&P closed DOWN -11.50 points (-0.25%) while the Nasdaq closed DOWN -13.73 points (-0.10%)

 

Henry’omics:

We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies …

Indexes floated down as rising bond yields pressure stocks.

Good quote, “Momentum has been quietly eroding over the last few weeks and was the motivation for our correction hunch a few weeks back,” said Chris Verrone, Strategas head of technical and macro research in a Thursday note. “Experience reminds us that such episodes usually work in a three-step process… break, tepid rally, break again,” although the longer-term trend is up.” <CNBC> 

The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) rose to 17.42 on Thursday, its highest level since June 13 when it reached 17.59. The so-called fear gauge was also on track for its fourth straight day of gains — a sign that traders may be more risk averse now than they were a few weeks back.

Economic Data Docket: The services sector in the U.S. expanded at a slower than expected pace in July, according to a report Thursday from the Institute for Supply Management. The ISM Services PMI came in at a 52.7 reading, representing the percentage of companies reporting expansion for the month. That was slightly below the Dow Jones estimate for 53.3 and below June’s 53.9. Prices pointed higher for the month, with 56.8% of companies reporting increases. However, that was offset by a 2.4-point drop in employment, a 5.5-point decline in inventories and a 2.1-poiint decrease in business activity and production.

·         Separately, the Commerce Department reported that total orders from manufacturers increased 2.3% in June, slightly better than the 2.2% estimate.

·         A July purchasing managers index reading came in slightly below economists’ expectations. The seasonally adjusted S&P Global U.S. Services PMI Business Activity Index came in at 52.3. That’s a hair below the 52.4 reading forecasted by economists polled by Dow Jones.

 

Thursday (8/3) … RegMed Investors’ (RMi) pre-open: “chose; Rock, paper or scissors. A simultaneous, zero-sum game, like equities, just another random selection and exit method.” … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/13062

 

RegMed Investors (RMi) Research Note: Q2/23 net losses earnings, cash positions and runway outcomes. LPS (loss-per-share) releases will present challenges to share pricing with outcomes included … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/13058

 

Pre-Open Indications: 2 Hits < Agenus (AGEN +$0.00), Generation Bio (GBIO +$0.01)> and 1 Miss < Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA -$0.62)  

 

RegMed/Stem/Cell and Gene Therapy’s 35 covered equities’ Advance/Decline (A/D) lines: what happened – differences …

  • Thursday’s advance/decline line opened negative at 8 up/ 24 down and 3 flats, stayed negative with 16 up/ 17 down and 2 flats at the mid-day, ending with a negative close of 9 incliners, 20 decliners and 6 flats

 

Key Metrics:

The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:

  • Thursday, the IBB was down -0.37% and the XBI was down -1%

The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:

  • Thursday was up +0.11 point or +0.68% at 16.20

 

Closing Down (10 of 20):

  • Blueprint Medicine (BPMC -$3.42 after Wednesday’s -$9.54, Tuesday’s -$1.86 and Monday’s +$2.88),
  • Vericel (VCEL -$2.65 after Wednesday’s -$0.49, Tuesday’s -$0.80 and Monday’s -$1.86),
  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP -$1.66 after Wednesday’s -$3.40, Tuesday’s -$0.92 and Monday’s +$0.44),
  • Regenxbio (-$1.42),
  • Beam Therapeutics (BEAM -$1.05),
  • Ultragenyx (RARE -$1.05 after Wednesday’s -$0.57),
  • Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS -$0.99 after Wednesday’s -$0.80),
  • Sage Therapeutics (SAGE -$0.73 after Wednesday’s +$0.74, Tuesday’s +$1.32 and Monday’s -$0.28),
  • BioLife Solutions (BLFS -$0.62 after Wednesday’s +$0.06, Tuesday’s -$0.54 and Monday’s +$0.14),
  • Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA -$0.62 after Wednesday’s -$1.25, Tuesday’s -$1.37 and Monday’s +$0.03),

Flat (6):

  • Adverum Biotechnologies (ADVM),
  • Agenus (AGEN)
  • Bellicum Pharmaceuticals (BLCM),
  • bluebird bio (BLUE)
  • Harvard Apparatus RM (HNGN) – formerly BIostage (BSTG)
  • Mesoblast (MESO)

Closing Up (9 of 9):

  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY +$3.09 after Wednesday’s -$2.04, Tuesday’s -$6.35 and Monday’s -$3.89)
  • Voyager therapeutics (+$0.31),
  • AxoGen (AXGN +$0.18),
  • Editas Medicine (EDIT +$0.17 after Wednesday’s +$0.49),
  • Homology Medicine (FIXX +$0.17),
  • MiMedx (MDXG +$0.05),
  • Compass Therapeutics (CMPX +$0.04),
  • Cellectis SA (CLLS +$0.03),
  • Graphite BIO (GRPH +$0.015 after Wednesday’s +$0.045),

Generation Bio (GBIO +$0.01)

 

Q3/23 – August

  • Thursday closed negative with 9 incliners, 20 decliners and 6 flats
  • Wednesday closed negative with 6 incliners, 27 decliners and 2 flats
  • 8/1 - Tuesday closed negative with 7 incliners, 27 decliners and 1 flat

 

The BOTTOM LINE: I try to keep it simple … and short!

I follow the dictum, quoting Churchill that “short words are best, and the old words when short are best of all.”

The major averages are lower this week during what is a historically weak period for markets, according to the Stock Trader’s Almanac.

The first nine trading days of August are usually lackluster periods for stocks, particularly as traders go away on vacation. Since 1987, August has been the worst month for the Dow and the second-worst month for the S&P 500, the almanac said.

Aside from the downgrade, earnings remain top of mind for investors … yesterday, investors showed little sign of panic after Fitch on Tuesday evening cut the U.S. by one notch to AA+ from AAA, citing fiscal deterioration.

An indicator, “Economic data over the last month has painted a more positive picture of the US economy than many thought more than halfway through 2023. Inflation is cooling while Americans continue to gain jobs at a healthy clip, and consumers have remained resilient.” <Yahoo Finance>

 

Questionable, “The U.S. Treasury said on Monday it expected to borrow $1.007 trillion in the third quarter, the largest amount yet for that period. It also said it plans to "incrementally" increase the size of its auctions across the board in the third quarter and continue increases in future quarters.” <Reuters>

 

August tends to frighten many stock market investors and historians.

·         The stock market is riding high after a strong performance in July, but August could be a difficult month for investors.

·         Data compiled by the Stock Trader’s Almanac shows the S&P 500 averages just a 0.1% gain in August. That makes it the third-worst month on average for the benchmark index. The Dow, meanwhile, averages a loss of 0.04% in August. <CNBC>

 

Cell and gene therapy sector performance continues to suggest the results of earning season although uniQure NV (QURE) – the first to release net share consensus and revenue misses where this equity (QURE) actually rose after earnings release – Tuesday (+$0.25) and possibly WHERE “this” market wants to go despite fears of recession, inflation, aggressive monetary policy, and problems earlier this year.

 

Right up front, “I also hate to be so negative or contrarian but, this is a NO spin zone and truth is its product; I can always be WRONG but, I am mostly EARLY!”

 

The top three (3) performing in the session:

Thursday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Voyager Therapeutics (VYGR) and AxoGen (AXGN)

Wednesday: Editas Medicine (EDIT), Sage Therapeutics (SAGE) – again and Vericel (VCEL)

Tuesday: Sage Therapeutics (SAGE), uniQure NV (QURE), and Caribou Biosciences (CRBU)

Monday: Blueprint Medicine (BPMC), Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS) and Verve Therapeutics (VERV)

 

While The worst three (3) in the session:

Thursday: Blueprint Medicine (BPMC) – 2x again, Vericel (VCEL) and CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP) - again

Wednesday: Blueprint Medicine (BPMC) – again, Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) – again and CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP)

Tuesday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Beam Therapeutics (BEAM) and Blueprint Medicine (BPMC),

Monday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Vericel (VCEL) and Beam Therapeutics (BEAM)

 

RegMed Investors (RMi) Research Note: Q2/2023 earnings reporting date announcements …

https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/13044

 

Earnings:  8/3/23 - today’s releases

8/3 - Voyager Therapeutics (VYGR) had a Q2/23 net loss of -$22.2 M or -$0.51 per share with a $272.7 M cash position and a runway until 2026

·         EPS beat and revenue estimates

8/3 - Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) had a Q2/23 net loss of -$276 M or -$2.21 per share with a $206 B cash position and a solid runway

·         Missed EPS and revenue estimates

8/3 - Compass Therapeutics (CMPS) had a Q2/23 net loss of -$11.3 M or -$0.09 per share with a $169 M cash position and a 2026 runway

·         Beat Q2/22 EPS and no revenue

8/3 - Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA) had a Q2/23 net loss of -$123.7 M or -$1.40 per share with a $1.1 B cash position and a 2025 runway

·         Missed EPS and revenue estimates

Ultragenyx (RARE) had a Q2/23 net loss of -$159.8 M or -$2.75 per share with a $618.4 M cash position and a 2026 runway

•             Missed EPS and revenue increase

 

I am definitely considered a contrarian depending on the session – one has to be a watcher of the ups and downs as well as measurer of sentiment. I am also a NO trust investor but, a validate and verify journalist/analyst.

 

The NO spin zone! U.S. public shareholders deserve accountability …

 

Harvard Apparatus Regenerative Technology (HRGN)  formerly Biostage (OTCQB: BSTG) … as of 7/20/23 -- so many issues!

·         Question: is HRGN just another Ponzi scheme (with their pump/promote buy and sell agenda) as shares are bought to replace those sold?

·         Accumulated deficit:  $85,901 M

·         Will HRGN ESCAPE the scandals when its “former” corporate name was used by a former chairman and CEO Green initiating scandal plagued utilization of an Italian surgeon and the $5 M it took to settle out the executive responsibility as it was SHIFTED to the company shareholders and Harvard Bio (HBIO)???

·         Can this management team be TRUSTED by ANY shareholder other then major holders’ Chinese off-shore investors.

 

My question that resounds, that should be asked is how many companies are at the end of sentiments …  leash?

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad, or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.

Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.