August 4, 2023 5:59pm

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Pre-Open Indications: 3 Hits and 2 Miss

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Week in review 

If I have learned one thing as a former research analyst in a venture and public fund, operating executive, x-military officer and x-FBI, an adjunct (MBA) business school professor now a journalist; my life and your portfolio are largely tied to our knowledge of price movements and questioning pricing targets.

 

The Dow closed DOWN -150.27 points (-0.43%), the S&P closed DOWN -23.86 points (-0.53%) while the Nasdaq closed DOWN -50.48 points (-0.36%)

 

Henry’omics:

We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies …

Indexes fizzled on Friday, reversing earlier gains, as traders parsed the latest U.S. jobs data post a batch of cell and gene therapy sector earnings.

All the major indexes reversed earlier gains during afternoon trading, and finished the week with losses.

The Nasdaq dived -2.9% and the S&P -2.3%, as the Dow edged down 1.1%.

After being lower on the day, the Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) rose to trade 17.10 — a volatility additive.  

Economic Data Docket: The July jobs report was a focal point in the stock market today. Nonfarm payrolls came in at 187,000, just below the 200,000 consensuses. June payroll growth was revised slightly lower to 185,000 from an initially reported 209,000. The Federal Reserve wants to see some softness in the labor market to help bring inflation down. But wages rose more than expected, up 0.4% month over month and 4.4% year over year.

·         Hours worked is a factor in productivity, which unexpectedly shot up 3.7% in Q2 as the length of the average work week declined.

 

Friday (8/4) … RegMed Investors’ (RMi) pre-open: “jobs data” … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/13064

RegMed Investors (RMi) Research Note: Q2/23 net losses earnings, cash positions and runway outcomes. LPS (loss-per-share) releases will present challenges to share pricing with outcomes included … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/13058

 

Pre-Open Indications: 3 Hits < Agenus (AGEN +$0.01), Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA +$0.52), Mesoblast (MESO -$2.35)> and 2 Miss < Blueprint Medicine (BPMC), CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP -$0.39)>

 

RegMed/Stem/Cell and Gene Therapy’s 35 covered equities’ Advance/Decline (A/D) lines: what happened – differences …

  • 8/4 - Friday’s advance/decline line opened positive at 16 up/ 15 down and 4 flats, flipped negative with 16 up/ 17 down and 2 flats at the mid-day, ending with a negative close of 12 incliners, 22 decliners and 1 flat
  • Thursday’s advance/decline line opened negative at 8 up/ 24 down and 3 flats, stayed negative with 16 up/ 17 down and 2 flats at the mid-day, ending with a negative close of 9 incliners, 20 decliners and 6 flats
  • Wednesday’s advance/decline line opened negative at 2 up/ 29 down and 4 flats, stayed negative with 5 up/ 26 down and 4 flats at the mid-day, ending with a negative close of 6 incliners, 27 decliners and 2 flats
  • 8/1 - Tuesday’s advance/decline line opened negative at 5 up/ 28 down and 2 flats, stayed negative with 7 up/ 26 down and 2 flats at the mid-day, ending with a negative close of 7 incliners, 27 decliners and 1 flat
  • 7/31 - Monday’s advance/decline line opened positive at 28 up/ 6 down and 1 flat, stayed positive with 19 up/ 14 down and 2 flats at the mid-day, ending with a positive close of 20 incliners, 15 decliners and 2 flats

 

Key Metrics:

The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:

  • Friday, the IBB was up +0.36% and the XBI was down -0.06%
  • Thursday, the IBB was down -0.37% and the XBI was down -1%
  • Wednesday, the IBB was down -0.54% and the XBI was down -1.46%
  • Tuesday, the IBB was down -0.97% and the XBI was down -1.17%
  • Monday, the IBB was down -0.55% and the XBI was up +0.62%

The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:

  • Friday was up +1.18 point or +7.41% at 17.10
  • Thursday was up +0.11 point or +0.68% at 16.20
  • Wednesday was up +2.09 point or +15.36% at 16.11
  • Tuesday was up +0.25 point or +1.83% at 13.88
  • Monday was up +0.31 point or +2.33% at 13.64

 

Closing Down (10 of 22):

  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY -$4.52 after Thursday’s +$3.09, Wednesday’s -$2.04, Tuesday’s -$6.35 and Monday’s -$3.89)
  • Ultragenyx (RARE -$3.63 after Thursday’s -$1.05 after Wednesday’s -$0.57),
  • Mesoblast (MESO -$2.35),
  • Blueprint Medicine (BPMC -$1.03 after Thursday’s -$3.42, Wednesday’s -$9.54, Tuesday’s -$1.86 and Monday’s +$2.88),
  • Voyager Therapeutics (+-$0.46 after Thursday’s +$0.31),
  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP -$0.39 after Thursday’s -$1.66, Wednesday’s -$3.40, Tuesday’s -$0.92 and Monday’s +$0.44),
  • uniQure NV (QURE -$0.24),
  • AxoGen (AXGN -$0.16 after Thursday’s +$0.18),
  • Compass Therapeutics (CMPX -$0.14 after Thursday’s +$0.04),

Flat (1):

  • Harvard Apparatus RM (HNGN) – formerly BIostage (BSTG)

Closing Up (12 of 12):

  • Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA +$0.52 after Thursday’s -$0.62, Wednesday’s -$1.25, Tuesday’s -$1.37 and Monday’s $0.03),
  • BioLife Solutions (BLFS +$0.44 after Thursday’s -$0.62, Wednesday’s +$0.06, Tuesday’s -$0.54 and Monday’s +$0.14),
  • Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS +$ after Thursday’s -$0.99 after Wednesday’s -$0.80),
  • Regenxbio (RGNX +$0.32 after Thursday’s -$1.42),
  • Sage Therapeutics (SAGE +$0.09 after Thursday’s -$0.73, Wednesday’s +$0.74, Tuesday’s +$1.32 and Monday’s -$0.28),
  • Graphite BIO (GRPH +$0.08 after Thursday’s +$0.015 after Wednesday’s +$0.045),
  • bluebird bio (BLUE +$0.05),
  • Fate Therapeutics (FATE +$0.04),
  • Verve Therapeutics (VERV +$0.03),
  • Vericel (VCEL +$0.02),
  • Agenus (AGEN +$0.01),
  • Bellicum Pharmaceuticals (BLCM +$0.0065)

 

Q3/23 – August

  • Friday closed negative with 12 incliners, 22 decliners and 1 flat
  • Thursday closed negative with 9 incliners, 20 decliners and 6 flats
  • Wednesday closed negative with 6 incliners, 27 decliners and 2 flats
  • Tuesday closed negative with 7 incliners, 27 decliners and 1 flat

 

The BOTTOM LINE: I try to keep it simple … and short!

I follow the dictum, quoting Churchill that “short words are best, and the old words when short are best of all.”

The cell and gene therapy sector dived on Friday, while indexes were lower, after a government jobs report showed a slowing but still tight U.S. labor market.

The major averages are lower this week during what is a historically weak period for markets, according to the Stock Trader’s Almanac. “The first nine trading days of August are usually lackluster periods for stocks, particularly as traders go away on vacation. Since 1987, August has been the worst month for the Dow and the second-worst month for the S&P 500.”

An indicator, “Economic data over the last month has painted a more positive picture of the US economy than many thought more than halfway through 2023. Inflation is cooling while Americans continue to gain jobs at a healthy clip, and consumers have remained resilient.” <Yahoo Finance>

August tends to frighten many stock market investors and historians.

  • Data compiled by the Stock Trader’s Almanac shows the S&P 500 averages just a 0.1% gain in August. That makes it the third-worst month on average for the benchmark index. The Dow, meanwhile, averages a loss of 0.04% in August. 
  • The stock market is riding high after a strong performance in July, but August could be a difficult month for investors.
  • Cell and gene therapy sector performance continues to suggest the results of earning season.

 

Right up front, “I also hate to be so negative or contrarian but, this is a NO spin zone and truth is its product; I can always be WRONG but, I am mostly EARLY!”

 

The top three (3) performing in the session:

Friday: Intellia therapeutics (NTLA), BioLife Solutions (BLFS) and Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS)

Thursday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Voyager Therapeutics (VYGR) and AxoGen (AXGN)

Wednesday: Editas Medicine (EDIT), Sage Therapeutics (SAGE) – again and Vericel (VCEL)

Tuesday: Sage Therapeutics (SAGE), uniQure NV (QURE), and Caribou Biosciences (CRBU)

Monday: Blueprint Medicine (BPMC), Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS) and Verve Therapeutics (VERV)

 

While The worst three (3) in the session:

Friday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Ultragenyx (RARE) and Mesoblast (MESO)

Thursday: Blueprint Medicine (BPMC) – 2x again, Vericel (VCEL) and CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP) - again

Wednesday: Blueprint Medicine (BPMC) – again, Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) – again and CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP)

Tuesday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Beam Therapeutics (BEAM) and Blueprint Medicine (BPMC),

Monday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Vericel (VCEL) and Beam Therapeutics (BEAM)

 

RegMed Investors (RMi) Research Note: Q2/2023 earnings reporting date announcements …

https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/13044

 

I am definitely considered a contrarian depending on the session – one has to be a watcher of the ups and downs as well as measurer of sentiment. I am also a NO trust investor but, a validate and verify journalist/analyst.

The NO spin zone! U.S. public shareholders deserve accountability …

 

Harvard Apparatus Regenerative Technology (HRGN)  formerly Biostage (OTCQB: BSTG) … as of 7/20/23 -- so many issues!

·         Question: is HRGN just another Ponzi scheme (with their pump/promote buy and sell agenda) as shares are bought to replace those sold?

·         Accumulated deficit:  $85,901 M

·         Will HRGN ESCAPE the scandals when its “former” corporate name was used by a former chairman and CEO Green initiating scandal plagued utilization of an Italian surgeon and the $5 M it took to settle out the executive responsibility as it was SHIFTED to the company shareholders and Harvard Bio (HBIO)???

·         Can this management team be TRUSTED by ANY shareholder other then major holders’ Chinese off-shore investors.

 

My question that resounds, that should be asked is how many companies are at the end of sentiments …  leash?

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad, or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.

Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.