August 8, 2023 4:53pm

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Pre-Open Indications: 2 Hit and 2 Miss (I’m sticking my forecast even with slippage!)

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The Dow closed DOWN -158.64 points (-0.45%), the S&P closed DOWN -19.06 points (-0.42%) while the Nasdaq closed DOWN -110.07 points (-0.79%)

 

Henry’omics:

We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies …

Stocks came under pressure Tuesday but recovered from steeper early after a warning about US bank health and surprisingly weak Chinese trade data sent shivers through markets.

As indexes dived while the cell and gene therapy sector continued plunging into its newest low after 5 down sessions as an August sell-off was reignited by a downgrade of the banking sector by credit rating agency Moody’s.

·         Banks fell broadly after Moody’s downgraded the credit rating on several regional banks, including M&T Bank and Pinnacle Financial, citing deposit risk, a potential recession and struggling commercial real estate portfolios. The credit agency also placed Bank of N.Y. Mellon and State Street on review for a downgrade.

·         Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan Chase traded around 2% and 1% lower, respectively, while the SPDR S&P Bank ETF (KBE) dropped more than 1.5%.

·         The SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF (KRE)also slid nearly 1.5%, as did M&T Bank. The regional bank ETF lost 28% in March amid the failure of Silicon Valley Bank. >CNBC>

The Cboe Volatility Index, better known as the VIX, hit a high of 18.09, the highest level since May 31st when it VIX traded as high as 18.40.

 

Tuesday (8/8) … RegMed Investors’ (RMi) pre-open: “earnings, earnings and more earnings. LPS (loss-per-share) reporting continues.” … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/13068

RegMed Investors (RMi) Research Note: Q2/23 net losses earnings, cash positions and runway outcomes. LPS (loss-per-share) releases will present challenges to share pricing with outcomes included … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/13058

 

Pre-Open Indications: 2 Hit < Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS +$0.43), CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP +$4.71) and 2 Miss < Blueprint Medicine (BPMC -$0.24), Ultragenyx (RARE -0.95)

 

RegMed/Stem/Cell and Gene Therapy’s 35 covered equities’ Advance/Decline (A/D) lines: what happened – differences …

Tuesday’s advance/decline line opened positive at 19 up/ 14 down and 4 flats, strayed negative with 16 up/ 17 down and 2 flats at the mid-day, ending with a positive close of 20 incliners, 15 decliners and 0 flat

 

Key Metrics:

The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:

  • Tuesday, the IBB was up +0.62% and the XBI was up +0.89%

The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:

  • Tuesday was up +0.26 point or +1.65% at 16.03

 

 

 

Closing Down (10 of 15):

  • AxoGen (AXGN -$1.61 after Monday’s-$0.16),
  • Ultragenyx (RARE -$0.95 after Monday’s -$1.53),
  • UniQure Nv (QURE -$0.34),
  • BioLife Solutions (BLFS -$0.25),
  • Blueprint Medicine (BPMC -$0.24 after Monday’s -$2.70),
  • MiMedx (MDXG -$0.12),
  • Agenus (AGEN -$0.11),
  • Caribou Bioscience (CRBU -$0.040,
  • Brainstorm Cell Therapeutics (BCLI -$0.04),
  • Mesoblast (MESO -$0.04),

 

Closing Up (10 of 20):

  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP +$4.71 after Monday’s -$2.62),
  • Sage Therapeutics (SAGE +$2.18 after Monday’s -$19.35),
  • Verve Therapeutics (VERV +$1.20 after Monday’s -$2.61),
  • Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA +$0.99),
  • Vericel (VCEL +$0.90),
  • Beam Therapeutics (BEAM +$0.71 after Monday’s -$1.58),
  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY +$0.55 after Monday’s -$1.29)
  • Editas Medicine (EDIT +$0.47 after Monday’s -$0.62),
  • Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS +$0.43 after Monday’s -$0.62),
  • Regenxbio (RGNX +$0.30)

 

Q3/23 – August

  • Tuesday closed positive with 20 incliners, 15 decliners and 0 flat

 

The BOTTOM LINE: I try to keep it simple … and short!

I follow the dictum, quoting Churchill that “short words are best, and the old words when short are best of all.”

The sector froze after colling since 8/1 … as Q2/23 earnings LPS (loss-per-share) get released

 

August tends to frighten many stock market investors and historians.

  • Data compiled by the Stock Trader’s Almanac shows the S&P 500 averages just a 0.1% gain in August. That makes it the third-worst month on average for the benchmark index. The Dow, meanwhile, averages a loss of 0.04% in August. <CNBC>
  • The stock market is riding high after a strong performance in July, but August could be a difficult month for investors.
  • Cell and gene therapy sector performance continues to suggest the results of earning season.

 

Right up front, “I also hate to be so negative or contrarian but, this is a NO spin zone and truth is its product; I can always be WRONG but, I am mostly EARLY!”

 

The top three (3) performing in the session:

Tuesday: CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP), Sage Therapeutics (SAGE) and Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY)

Monday: Solid Biosciences (SLDB), Precigen (PGEN) and Bellicum Pharmaceuticals (BLCM)

 

While The worst three (3) in the session:

Tuesday: AxoGen (AXGN), Ultragenyx (RARE) and BioLife Solutions (BLFS)

Monday: Sage Therapeutics (SAGE) and Bellicum Pharmaceuticals (BLCM)

 

Sector Pain and Agonies: continues with SAGE rebounding +$2.18 or +13.01 to $18.93

A split FDA decision on a new depression medicine from Sage Therapeutics (SAGE –53.60%) and Biogen (BIIB +0.86%) blew holes in the strategies of both companies and raised questions about the future of their collaboration.

Late on Friday, the FDA approved a two-week course of the pill Zurzuvae as a treatment for postpartum depression, but not for major depressive disorder.

·         Zurzuvae is the first oral treatment, and the second medicine, ever approved specifically for postpartum depression.

·         The major depressive disorder indication, however, is far larger, and investors had expected roughly two-thirds of the drug’s sales to come from those prescriptions.

The rejection of the major depressive disorder indication appears to be a major setback for Sage and shares of the biotech were down 50% on Monday morning. The news is bad for Biogen (BIIB) as well, though it seems to have been largely anticipated by investors. <Barron’s)

 

RegMed Investors (RMi) Research Note: Q2/2023 earnings reporting date announcements … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/13044

 

Good News Post Earnings’: CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP)  having topped consensus estimate jumping +$4,76 or 9.85% as of after rising as much as 13% earlier in the day. CRISP reported Q2 revenue of $70 million. Credit Suisse's Richard Law reiterated a neutral rating for the gene-editing stock but increased his price target from $62 to $63.

 

I am definitely considered a contrarian depending on the session – one has to be a watcher of the ups and downs as well as measurer of sentiment. I am also a NO trust investor but, a validate and verify journalist/analyst.

 

The NO spin zone! U.S. public shareholders deserve accountability …

 

Harvard Apparatus Regenerative Technology (HRGN)  formerly Biostage (OTCQB: BSTG) … as of 7/20/23 -- so many issues!

·         Question: is HRGN just another Ponzi scheme (with their pump/promote buy and sell agenda) as shares are bought to replace those sold?

·         Accumulated deficit:  $85,901 M

·         Will HRGN ESCAPE the scandals when its “former” corporate name was used by a former chairman and CEO Green initiating scandal plagued utilization of an Italian surgeon and the $5 M it took to settle out the executive responsibility as it was SHIFTED to the company shareholders and Harvard Bio (HBIO)???

·         Can this management team be TRUSTED by ANY shareholder other then major holders’ Chinese off-shore investors.

 

My question that resounds, that should be asked is how many companies are at the end of sentiments …  leash?

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad, or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.

Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.