September 2, 2023 11:24am
As algos and electronic trading recognized/grabbed the disparities in share pricing; investors enjoyed the ride
Pre-open Indications: 4 Hits and 0 Miss
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Friday’s week in review including August’s ending on Thursday
If I have learned one thing as a former research analyst in a venture and public fund, multiple operating roles, x-military officer and x-FBI, an adjunct (MBA) business school professor now a journalist; my life and your portfolio are largely tied to our knowledge of price movements and questioning pricing targets.
The Dow closed UP +115.80 or +0.33%, the S&P closed UP +8.11 or +0.18% while the Nasdaq closed barely DOWN -3.15 points or -0.02%
We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies …
Indexes were mixed and benchmark Treasury yields rebounded after the much-anticipated U.S.
For the week approximations, the Nasdaq was up +3%, the S&P 500 was up +2% and the DOW +1%.
August employment report showed an uptick in unemployment and cooler-than-expected wage growth, cementing expectations that the Fed will let key interest rates stand at its September policy meeting.
Economic Data Docket: unemployment rate ticked higher to 3.8% in August, reaching its highest level in more than a year. Meanwhile, average hourly earnings increased less than expected.
· Jobs, however, grew at a faster-than-expected pace last month, with 187,000 being added.
· However, job numbers first reported for June and July were revised down by a combined 110,000.
· The ISM manufacturing index rose to 47.6 in August from 46.4, indicating a smaller-than-expected contraction for the sector. Economists expected the index to come in at 46.8; marking the ninth straight month of contraction after 30 months of expansion.
Friday (9/1) … RegMed Investors’ (RMi) Opening Bell: “patterns exist and then they don’t. Sentiment has been slipping as exits rose as August ended. My question, are we facing a prisoner’s dilemma- a situation wherein algorithms acting with electronic trading interests do not achieve any outcome for investors.” … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/13104
Pre-Open indications: 4 Hits < Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY +$3.35), BioLife Solutions (BLFS +$0.19), Mesoblast (MESO -$0.12), Vericel (VCEL +$1.05)> and 0 Miss
RegMed/Stem/Cell and Gene Therapy’s 35 covered equities’ Advance/Decline (A/D) lines: what happened – differences …
- Friday’s advance/decline line opened positive at 28 up/ 2 down and 5 flats, stayed positive with 27 up/ 8 down and 0 flat at the mid-day, ending with a positive close of 28 incliners, 6 decliners and 1 flat
- Thursday’s advance/decline line opened negative at 16 up/ 17 down and 2 flats, stayed negative with 13 up/ 21 down and 1 flat at the mid-day, ending with a negative close of 13 incliners, 21 decliners and 1 flat
- Wednesday’s advance/decline line opened negative at 14 up/ 19 down and 2 flats, stayed negative with 13 up/ 21 down and 1 flat at the mid-day, ending with a negative close of 12 incliners, 22 decliners and 1 flat
- Tuesday’s advance/decline line opened positive at 18 up/ 15 down and 2 flats, stayed positive with 28 up/ 6 down and 1 flat at the mid-day, ending with a positive close of 20 incliners, 14 decliners and 1 flat
- Monday’s advance/decline line opened positive at 25 up/ 9 down and 1 flat, stayed positive with 21 up/ 11 down and 2 flats at the mid-day, ending with a positive close of 24 incliners, 11 decliners and 0 flat
Ebb and flow:
Q3: September – 1 positive close
· August – 9 positive and 14 negative closes
Key Metrics: compare
The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:
- Friday, the IBB was up +1.01% and the XBI was up +2.42%
- Thursday, the IBB was down -0.88% and the XBI was down -0.64%
- Wednesday, the IBB was up +0.29% and the XBI was up +0.50%
- Tuesday, the IBB was up +1.07% and the XBI was up +0.48%
- Monday, the IBB was up +0.41% and the XBI was up +0.34%
The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:
- Friday was down -0.50 point or -3.68% at 13.07
- Thursday was down -0.40 point or -2.88% at 13.48
- Wednesday was down -0.58 point or -4.01% at 13.87
- Tuesday was down -0.64 point or -4.24% at 14.44
- Monday was down -0.53 point or -3.38% at 15.15
Closing Down (6 of 6):
- Prime Medicine (PRMC -$0.46 after Thursday’s +$0.05 after Wednesday’s -$0.16, Tuesday’s +$0.20 and Monday’s +$0.36),
- Mesoblast MESO -$0.12 after Thursday’s +$0.18),
- Brainstorm Cell Therapeutics (BCLI -$0.08 after Thursday’s +$0.03),
- Cellectis SA (CLLS -$0.03),
- Solid Biosciences (SLDB -$0.015),
- Caribou Biosciences (CRBU -$0.01),
- Homology Medicine (FIXX)
Closing Up (10 of 28):
- Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY +$3.35 after Thursday’s +$0.66 after Wednesday’s +$2.70, Tuesday’s +$2.80 and Monday’s +$2.40),
- Vericel (VCEL +$1.05 after Thursday’s +$0.27 after Wednesday’s +$0.28, Tuesday’s +$0.22 and Monday’s -$0.42),
- Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE +$0.99 after Thursday’s +$0.23),
- Blueprint Medicine (BPMC +$0.78 after Thursday’s +$0.56 after Wednesday’s +$0.45, Tuesday’s -$0.18 after Monday’s -$1.54),
- Verve Therapeutics (VERV +$0.58 after Thursday’s -$0.25 after Wednesday’s +$0.30, Tuesday’s -$0.17 and Monday’s -$0.05),
- Regenxbio (RGNX +$0.43 after Thursday’s -$0.72 after Wednesday’s -$0.03, Tuesday’s +$0.02 and Monday’s +$0.26),
- Fate Therapeutics (FATE +$0.30 after Thursday’s -$0.13),
- Sage Therapeutics (SAGE +$0.29 after Thursday’s +$0.28, Wednesday’s -$0.14 and Tuesday’s -$0.08),
- Generation Bio (GBIO+$0.28 after Thursday’s -$0.25 after Wednesday’s -$0.33),
- Beam Therapeutics (BEAM +$0.28 after Thursday’s -$0.33, Wednesday’s -$0.21, Tuesday’s +$0.29 and Monday’s +$0.22),
Q3/23 – September
- Friday closed positive with 28 incliners, 6 decliners and 1 flat
The BOTTOM LINE: I try to keep it simple … and short!
I follow the dictum, quoting Churchill that “short words are best, and the old words when short are best of all.”
The cell and gene therapy sector equity closed Friday positive starting a new month, September … after Thursday and Wednesday’s negative closes loss post ascending Tuesday but, with some slippage toward the close after Monday,
· The previous Friday’s positive closes following Thursday’s negative close and past positive closes of the previous Wednesday, Tuesday, Monday.
From the morning’s post, when a price pattern signals a change in trend direction, it is known as a reversal pattern; a continuation pattern occurs when the trend continues in its existing direction following a brief pause.
· On daily charts, chartists often use closing prices, rather than highs or lows, to draw trendlines since the closing prices represent the traders and investors willing to hold a position overnight or over a weekend or market holiday.
· There are many patterns used by traders—here is how patterns are made and some of the most popular ones.
· These patterns can be as simple as trendlines and as complex as double head-and-shoulders formations. <Investopedia>
Right up front, “I also hate to be so negative or contrarian; I can always be WRONG but … I am mostly EARLY!”
Being “greedy when others are fearful” is easier said than done
When a cell and gene therapy sector equity sells-off to or below a buy point, investors face a tough decision: hold tight, exit or trim the position. There's not necessarily a "right" answer. Sometimes the stock will bounce right back, others will keep falling — perhaps after briefly bouncing. A more-cautious approach may make more sense in the current volatile market.
The top three (3) performing in the session:
Friday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) – 6x, Vericel (VCEL) and Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE)
Thursday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) – 5x, Blueprint Medicine (BPMC) and Sage Therapeutics (SAGE)
Wednesday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) – 3x again, Blueprint Medicine (BPMC) and BioLife Solutions (BLFS) - again
Tuesday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) – yet again, BioLife Solutions (BLFS) and CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP)
Monday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) – again, Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS) and Generation Bio (GBIO)
While The worst three (3) in the session:
Friday: Prime Medicine (PRMC), Mesoblast (MESO) and Brainstorm Cell Therapeutics (BCLI)
Thursday: Regenxbio (RGNX), CRISPR Medicine (EDIT) and Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA)
Wednesday: Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS), Generation Bio (GBIO) and AxoGen (AXGN)
Tuesday: Blueprint Medicine (BPMC), Verve Therapeutics (VERV) and Caribou Biosciences (CRBU)
Monday: Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE), Blueprint Medicine (BPMC) and Vericel (VCEL)
I am definitely considered a contrarian depending on the session – one has to be a watcher of the ups and downs as well as measurer of sentiment. I am also a NO trust investor but, a validate and verify journalist/analyst.
The NO spin zone! U.S. public shareholders deserve accountability …
Harvard Apparatus Regenerative Technology (HRGN) formerly Biostage (OTCQB: BSTG) … as of 7/20/23 -- so many issues according to the 8-K and 10-K!
• Accumulated deficit: $88.5 M (newest 10-K)
Question: How many CEOs, presidents, VPs, CFOs, CMOs, board members and audit members have … left or been laid-off, accounting firm’s resignations and scientists have resigned since 11/1/13 when it spun out of Harvard Biosciences (HBIO) – guess? Also, how many consultants and CROs were left UNPAID after months and years of facilitating IND filed?
· Answers coming … as those current (VPs and board members) marginalized the company are STILL in charge!!
· HRGN has incurred substantial operating losses since its inception, and as of June 30, 2023 had an accumulated deficit of approximately $88.5 million and will require additional financing to fund future operations.
· HRGN will NEED to raise additional funds to fund its operations. WHO and WHICH U.S. investors would INVEST in a BASICALLY Chinese company with their history??
· A REAL question … is the pump/promote the volume and share pricing BAK (close +$0.04 with 1,465 shares traded, average volume 1,344 per)??
Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.
Whether information or intelligence is good, bad, or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors. All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.
Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.
Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities.
I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.