September 11, 2023 7:41am
Refers to the historically weak stock market returns observed during the month of September. Cell and gene therapy stocks are barely up one week (3 of 5 sessions) into what's historically been their worst month of the year
Pre-open Indications: 5 Sell into Strength Indications
RMi defines the extenuating factors of share pricing; subscription is coming, it’s not conscription but, an offer to join our collective of like-minded investors!
Never forget, the enduring legacy of 9/11 and those who perished at the World Trade Center terrorist attacks killing more than 2,700 people
8:00 a.m. edition
Remember that overnight and pre-open actions in futures don't necessarily translate into actual trading in the coming day’s session. My interpretation of the morning’s numbers is written to be informative; it’s built on what will happen behind the headlines today, not tomorrow or yesterday
Dow futures are UP +0.19% or (+68 points), S&P futures are UP +0.43% or (+19 points) and NASDAQ futures are UP +0.70% or (+108 points) early in the pre-open – so far
Stock futures are positive on Monday a.m. at the start of a week,
European markets climbed higher,
Asia-Pacific markets were mixed.
We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies …
From Friday, indexes barely fluctuated (Dow and S&P were up, Nasdaq while popping at close) on Friday heading to a losing week amid renewed worries that the Fed could raise rates more than expected.
· The Dow closed UP +75.86 points or +0.22%, the S&P closed UP +6.35 points or +0.14% while the Nasdaq closed UP +12.69 points or +0.09%
Economic Data Docket: Wednesday and Thursday bring the latest consumer price index and producer price index readings. Retail sales data is also expected Thursday and the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Survey will be released on Friday, which should give insight on how well spending could hold up for the rest of the year.
Friday’s (9/8) RegMed Investors’ (RMi) closing bell: “a barely positive sector rebound, better than staring into a share pricing abyss. As I predicted, the curse was partially revoked after writing this a.m. “reverse the sector’s downer curse.” … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/13113
Ebb and flow:
Q3: September – 1 holiday, 3 positive and 2 negative closes
· August – 9 positive and 14 negative closes
· July - 1 holiday, 12 positive and 8 negative close
Companies in my headlights – It’s your decision; I provide ideas and context: INDICATIONS
I post about “indication intelligence” devoting my time to collection and analysis of information to assist investors with insight into sector vulnerabilities and strengths. A dictionary definition of “indicate” refers to something less than a certainty; an indication could be a signal of being oversold or overbought, a recommendation, or grounds for inferring or a basis for believing.
Sell into Strength:
Friday’s closing price, some Wednesday’s and Tuesday’s, Monday was a market holiday following aftermarket dollar ($) and cent ($0.00) value and percentage (%)
Blueprint Medicine (BPMC) closed up +$2.74 after Thursday’s+$0.60, Wednesday’s +$0.36, Tuesday’s -$0.95 and the previous Friday’s +$0.78, with a positive +$2.05 or +3.84% aftermarket indication.
Beam Therapeutics (BEAM) closed up +$0.40 after Thursday’s +$0.49, Wednesday’s +$0.98, Tuesday’s +$0.22 and the previous Friday’s +$0.28, with a negative -$0.05 or -0.20% pre-open indication
Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA) closed up +$0.18 after Thursday’s -$0.50, Wednesday’s +$0.22 and Tuesday’s +$0.28 with a negative -$0.37 or -0.98% pre-open indication.
Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS) closed up +$0.83 after Thursday’s +$0.59, Wednesday’s +$0.45 and Tuesday’s -$1.16 with a positive +$0.09 or +0.22% aftermarket indication
Sage Therapeutics (SAGE) closed up +$0.72 after Thursday’s +$0.25, Wednesday’s +$0.07, Tuesday’s +$0.28 after the previous Friday’s +$0.29 with a neutral pre-open indication.
The BOTTOM LINE:
I follow the dictum, quoting Churchill that “short words are best, and the old words when short are best of all, as I try to keep it simple and short!
From Friday, “August was a difficult month, with weak data, and September may be the same. Beyond that, though, the prospects remain good. Any recession is likely some time away, which should keep markets healthy.” < said Brad McMillan, chief investment officer at Commonwealth Financial Network>
As I have stated last week, it is STILL a “musical chairs” game! Remember, risk is riskier … except when it isn’t!
Key inflation data and a looming deadline for contentious labor negotiations await investors in the week ahead, the first full trading week of September.
The economic highlight comes on Wednesday morning, when the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for August will be released. The report is set to show headline inflation continues to reverse its downtrend as oil prices rise.
Investors crave share pricing explanations because they give us an illusion of portfolio control. I know what a company is supposed to look like, be like, and smell like to succeed; bottom line, investors own the right to exit or enter sector’s share pricing.
My version of the morning’s “indications” is about what you need to know; it’s what could happen or materialize after the opening and what might happen during the session.
Timing is everything, “I learned very early (as a military officer), if you weren’t 5 minutes early for a meeting, you were 10 minutes late – follow my lead by being EARLY in portfolio deliberations.”
A lot of words … from “others” … yet: “Don't act like the sector is in an uptrend until the sector is actually in an uptrend.”
Where and when is value creation as we have slipped into September and the end of Q3??
Reiterating, “I am for a number of exits … with investors holding on to the railings for new reads on the well-being of the US economy as a dismal August draw to a close.
And, I am more frequently right than consequentially wrong
There's ALSO nothing wrong with standing pat in the short run, holding on to sizable existing exposure.
I hate to be so negative or contrarian but, this is a NO spin zone and truth is its product; I can always be WRONG but, I am mostly EARLY!
Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.
All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.
Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors. All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.
Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.
Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors could hold or have positions securities referred to in this publication and he will NOTIFY investors of holdings.