September 18, 2023 7:50am
Looking toward the Fed’s next policy decision; last week ended as the sector ended with three (3) positive and two (2) negative closes
Pre-open Indications: 2 Positive, 1 Negative Indications and 1 Sell into strength
While many talk about the shift in alternating sentiment, I monitor the pulse and focus of possible outcomes. Subscription is coming, it’s not conscription but, an offer to join our collective of like-minded investors!
8:00 a.m. edition
Remember that overnight and pre-open actions in futures don't necessarily translate into actual trading in the coming day’s session. My interpretation of the morning’s numbers is written to be informative; it’s built on what will happen behind the headlines today, not tomorrow or yesterday
Dow futures are UP +0.05% or (+16 points), S&P futures are UP +0.01% or (+1 points) and NASDAQ futures are DOWN -0.06% or (-9 points) early in the pre-open – so far
U.S. stock futures were mixed and fluctuating Monday,
European markets were down,
Asia-Pacific markets were also down.
Henry’omics:
We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies …
Indexes fell Friday as the Dow closed DOWN -288.87 points or -0.83%, the S&P closed DOWN -54.78 points or -1.22% while the Nasdaq closed DOWN -217.72 points or -1.56%
Economic Data Docket: The National Association of Home Builders will be releasing September’s Housing Market Index data. The New York Fed will also be announcing September’s Business Leaders Survey results.
Friday’s (9/15) RegMed Investors’ (RMi) closing bell: “a volatile week ending on a triple-witching Friday. Sentiment is slippin’ and slidin’, jiving and diving as contracts expired today including options tied to single stocks, as well as options and futures tied to major indexes - all tools for investors to hedge risks or make speculative bets.” … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/13123
Ebb and flow:
Q3: September – 1 holiday, 6 positive and 4 negative closes
· August – 9 positive and 14 negative closes
· July - 1 holiday, 12 positive and 8 negative close
Companies in my headlights – It’s your decision; I provide ideas and context: INDICATIONS
I post about “indication intelligence” devoting my time to collection and analysis of information to assist investors with insight into sector vulnerabilities and strengths. A dictionary definition of “indicate” refers to something less than a certainty; an indication could be a signal of being oversold or overbought, a recommendation, or grounds for inferring or a basis for believing.
Sell into Strength:
Friday’s closing price, some Thursday, Wednesday, Tuesday and Monday closing “numbers” with aftermarket dollar ($) and cent ($0.00) value and percentage (%)
CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP) closed Friday down -$0.70 after Thursday’s +$1.92, Wednesday’s -$1.01, Tuesday’s -$0.70 and last Monday’s +$1.13 with a positive +$0.26 or +0.51% pre-open indication.
Negative Indications:
Friday’s closing price, some Tuesday and Monday, with aftermarket dollar ($) and cent ($0.00) value and percentage (%)
Caribou Biosciences (CRBU) closed up +$0.21 after Thursday’s +$0.05, Wednesday’s -$0.50, Tuesday’s -$0.29 and last Monday’s +$0.63 with a negative -$0.05 or -0.85% pre-open indication. Where is the news to keep it up?
Positive indications:
Friday’s closing price, some Thursday, Wednesday, Tuesday and Monday closing “numbers” with aftermarket dollar ($) and cent ($0.00) value and percentage (%)
Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) closed down Friday -$8.07 after Thursday’s -$18.59 and Wednesday’s flat as trading was stopped after Tuesday’s +$7.93 and Monday’s +$2.29 after a positive outcome by the FDA with a positive +$9.24 or +4.99% aftermarket indication
Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE) closed down -$1.58 after Thursday’s -$1.70, Wednesday’s -$0.45, Tuesday’s +$0.67 and last Monday’s -$0.41 with a positive +$0.02 or +0.05% aftermarket indication.
The BOTTOM LINE:
The Strange Case of Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde might make for a great read, but it’s far less fun when the sector act like it’s their blueprint. Stocks have lately been alternating between the horrific and the benign.
U.S. equity futures nudged higher Monday, while Treasury yields tested multi-year peaks and the dollar held gains against its global peers, as investors look to fresh growth and inflation forecasts, as well as a key interest rate decision, from the Federal Reserve later this week. <The Street>
The cell and gene therapy closed down on Friday after being up on Thursday but was weak for most of those who ascended and remain under pressure. A few good days and many sector equities have enjoyed the upside position so far in September; I believe some equities are actionable or in position whether to be bought, or sold into strength.
Investors should be cautious with new buys after a mixed bag of closes; a couple of bad sessions are due and many equities look … about to be seriously damaged! So, if you're buying on weakness, you might be jumping onto a sinking ship.
Remember, there are four (4) phases of the stock cycle: accumulation; markup; distribution; and markdown
A lot of words: “Don't act like the sector is in an uptrend until the sector is actually in an uptrend.”
More than 143,000 autoworkers have been striking since their contracts with America's Big Three automakers expired. A prolonged work stoppage by the United Auto Workers (UAW) union at Stellantis (STLA), GM (GM), and Ford (F) could have broad economic impacts that reach as far as the Fed's next decision on interest rates.
Where and when is value creation as we slip into September and the end of Q3 with LPS <loss-per-share> quarterly releases coming due?
Reiterating, “I am STILL for a number of exits … with investors holding on to the railings for new reads on the well-being of the US economy as a dismal August draw to a close.
I am more frequently right than consequentially wrong.
There's ALSO nothing wrong with standing pat in the short run, holding on to sizable existing exposure.
I hate to be so negative or contrarian but, this is a NO spin zone and truth is its product; I can always be WRONG but, I am mostly EARLY!
Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice. All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.
Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors. All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives. Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.
Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors could hold or have positions securities referred to in this publication and he will NOTIFY investors of holdings.
