October 2, 2023 7:42am
Is governed by three simple rules: rock beats scissors, scissors beats paper, paper beats rock. On the face of it, the chances of winning are just one in three as seasonal weakness may set up a stock-market rally in Q4.
Pre-open Indications: 2 Negative and 4 Positive Indications
My version of the morning’s “indications” is about what you need to know; it’s what could happen or materialize and what did happen at the close of the session
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8:00 a.m. edition
Remember that overnight and pre-open actions in futures don't necessarily translate into actual trading in the coming day’s session. My interpretation of the morning’s numbers is written to be informative; it’s built on what will happen behind the headlines today, not tomorrow or yesterday
Dow futures are UP +0.01% or (+2 points), S&P futures are UP +0.06% or (+2 points) and NASDAQ futures are UP +0.20% or (+29 points) early in the pre-open – so far
Stock futures are positive/up and still fluctuating on Monday, October 2nd,
European stock markets fell pressured by the manufacturing sector,
Asia-Pacific stocks fell even after manufacturing data out of China bounced.
Henry’omics:
We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies …
Friday, indexes floated mixed as the Dow closed DOWN -158.84 points or -0.47%, the S&P closed DOWN -11.65 points or -0.27% while the Nasdaq closed UP +18.05 points or +0.14%.
In the week, traders cheered data showing inflation may be easing.
September marked the worst monthly performance of the year for the S&P 500. But the indexes are still up on the year despite the pullback, underscoring the strength of the rally seen in the first half of the year. The S&P 500 is down about 6% from its 2023 high close in July, but still up 11% for the year. <CNBC>
Economic Data Docket: purchasing and construction spending
Friday’s (9/29) RegMed Investors’ (RMi) closing bell: “the end of September and Q3, what a jerky and brutal ride it has been as investors face sharp September losses” … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/13143
Ebb and flow:
Q4: October – 1st session
Q3:
· September – 1 holiday, 8 positive and 12 negative closes
· August – 9 positive and 14 negative closes
· July - 1 holiday, 12 positive and 8 negative close
Companies in my headlights – It’s your decision; I provide ideas and context:
I post about “indication intelligence” devoting my time to collection and analysis of information to assist investors with insight into sector vulnerabilities and strengths. A dictionary definition of “indicate” refers to something less than a certainty; an indication could be a signal of being oversold or overbought, a recommendation, or grounds for inferring or a basis for believing.
Negative Indications:
Friday’s closing price, some Thursday, Wednesday, Tuesday, Monday, Friday, Thursday, Wednesday, Tuesday and Monday’s closing “numbers” with aftermarket dollar ($) and cent ($0.00) value and percentage (%)
Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE) closed up +$0.48 after Thursday’s -$1.74, Wednesday’s-$0.50, Tuesday’s +$0.74 and last Monday’s +$0.24 with a negative -$1.07 or -3% pre-open indication.
Beam Therapeutics (BEAM) closed up +$0.03 after Thursday’s -$0.37, Wednesday’s +$0.66, Tuesday’s +$0.59 and Monday’s -$0.75 with a negative -$0.05 pre-open or -0.21% indication.
Positive indications:
Friday’s closing price, some Thursday Wednesday, Tuesday, Monday, Friday, Thursday, Wednesday, Tuesday and Monday’s closing “numbers” with aftermarket dollar ($) and cent ($0.00) value and percentage (%)
Maintaining, Homology Medicine (FIXX) closed down -$0.90 after Thursday’s -$0.02 with a positive +$0.03 or +2.56% aftermarket indication
Maintaining, Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS) closed sown -$0.87 after Wednesday’s +$0.85, Tuesday’s+$3.62, Monday’s -$0.05 and last Friday’s +$0.23 with a positive +$1.59 or +3.51% aftermarket indication; after jumping on news of Roche deal for two undisclosed early-stage programs for RNA-targeting investigational medicines for the treatment of Alzheimer's disease (AD) and Huntington's disease (HD).
CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP) closed down -$0.35 after Thursday’s -$1.39 with a positive +$0.08 or +0.18% pre-open indication
Maintaining, Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA) closed down -$0.14 after Thursday’s -$0.33 with a positive +$0.22 or +0.70% pre-open indication
The BOTTOM LINE: October, Q4 historically has been the best quarter for the U.S. stock market …
However, what's “spooking” the market and cell and gene therapy sector is volatility …
- October is also known as the “jinx month” because of the 1929 and 1987 crashes, it also has a reputation as a “bear killer,” according to the “Stock Trader’s Almanac.”
- A brutal September ended on a low note; the Nasdaq fell -4.1%, while the S&P 500 dropped -3.6% and the Dow fell- 2.8%.
- Stocks enter October after two (2) consecutive down months.
- October is also the month where we experiencing earnings – LPS (loss-per-share) depreciation.
How will futures respond with a government shutdown averted?
- A sector rally could be attempted as indexes come off midweek lows. But the rebound could be lackluster at best, this attempt could end up being a short-lived bounce; as earnings are due ... a depreciating effect
- After three (3) weekly closes and twelve (12) negative closes of twenty-one (21) in the month of September; hope springs eternal, which is NOT a technical indicator.
Weekly Economic data Calendar:
Monday: S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI, September, final (48.9 expected, 48.9 previously); Construction spending MoM, August (+0.6% expected, +0.7% previously); ISM manufacturing, September (47.8 expected, 47.6 previously)
Tuesday: JOLTS Job Openings, August (8.9 million expected, 8.8 million previously);
Wednesday: MBA Mortgage Applications, week ending September 29 (-1.3% previously); ADP employment change, September (150,000 expected, 177,000 expected); Factory orders, August (+0.2% expected); Durable goods orders, August final (+0.2% previously); ISM Services Index, September (53.5 expected, 54.5 previously) S&P Global US Services PMI, September, final (50.2 expected, 50.2 previously); S&P Global US Composite PMI, September, final (50.1 previously)
Thursday: Challenger jobs cuts, year-over-year, September; Weekly initial jobless claims, September 30 (204,000 previously)
Friday: Nonfarm payrolls, September (+170,000 expected, +187,000 previously); Unemployment rate, September (3.7% expected, 3.8% previously); Average hourly earnings, month-over-month, September (+0.3% expected, +0.2% previously); Average hourly earnings, year-over-year, September (+4.3% expected, +4.3% previously); Average weekly hours worked, September (34.4 expected, 34.4 previously); Labor force participation rate, September (62.8% previously) < Josh Schafer is a reporter for Yahoo Finance>
I hate to be so negative or contrarian but, this is a NO spin zone and facts are its product; I am more frequently right than consequentially wrong but, I am mostly EARLY!
I am more frequently right than consequentially wrong; if you want to be liked, don’t be an analyst/journalist.
Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice. All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.
Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors. All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives. Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.
Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors could hold or have positions securities referred to in this publication and he will NOTIFY investors of holdings.
