October 3, 2023 4:45pm

The only thing you can be sure of is you’ll end up close to where you started

Pre-open Indications: 3 Hits and 2 Miss

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The Dow closed DOWN -430.97 points or -1.29%, the S&P closed DOWN -58.94 points or -1.37% while the Nasdaq closed DOWN -248.31 points or -1.87%

 

What’s SAFE … “No one company is immune in the sector and this market of rolling downdrafts? Welcome to my world of defining the “grey’ in our universe!”

Investors are going to need to prepare for another reporting cycle to confirm whether or not a bottom is even close to happening.

 

Henry’omics:

We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies …

Indexes fell following the report as a tighter labor market could put more pressure on the Fed to keep interest rates having hit their highest levels since 2007, raising concern that would freeze the housing market and tip the economy into a recession.

With Tuesday’s losses, the Dow went into the red for the year. The broader S&P 500 is still up 10% for 2023.

Economic Data Docket: Job openings totaled 9.61 million for the month, a jump of nearly 700,000 from July and well above the Dow Jones estimate for 8.8 million. Hires, however, rose only modestly, moving up to 5.857 million, an increase of just 35,000. Much of the increase in openings came in professional and business services, which showed a burst of 509,000. <monthly Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey>

 

52-week low:

  • Prime Medicine (PRME) at $8.51
  • Fate Therapeutics (FATE) at $1.87
  • Solid BioSciences (SDB) at $2.35
  • Cellectis SA (CLLLS) at $1.47
  • Intellia Therapeutics NTLA) at $28.93
  • uniQure NV (QURE) at $6.10

 

Monday (10/2) … RegMed Investors’ (RMi) Opening Bell: “rock paper scissors … Is governed by three simple rules: rock beats scissors, scissors beats paper, paper beats rock. On the face of it, the chances of winning are just one in three as seasonal weakness may set up a stock-market rally in Q4.” … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/13144

 

Pre-Open indications: 3 Hit < Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY -$6.05), CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP +$0.53), Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA +$0.27)> and 2 Miss < Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE +$0.66), Prime Medicine (PRME +$0.35),   

 

RegMed/Stem/Cell and Gene Therapy’s 35 covered equities’ Advance/Decline (A/D) lines: what happened – differences …

  • Tuesday’s advance/decline line opened negative with 10 up, 22 down and 3 flats, flopped positive at the mid-day with 19 up/ 15 down and 1 flat, ending with a positive close of 19 incliners, 14 decliners and 2 flats

 

Ebb and flow:

Q4:  October –1 negative and 1 positive closes

·         Q3: September – 1 holiday, 8 positive and 12 negative closes

·         August – 9 positive and 14 negative closes

·          July - 1 holiday, 12 positive and 8 negative close

 

Key Metrics:

The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:

  • Tuesday, the IBB was down -1.09% and the XBI was down -0.18%

The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:

  • Tuesday was up +2.39 point or +13.57% at 20.00

 

Closing Down (10 of 14):

  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY -$6.05 after Monday’s +$1.86),
  • Blueprint Medicine (BPMC -$0.33 after Monday’s -$1.36),
  • Harvard Apparatus GN (HRGN -$0.23 after Monday’s +$0.07)
  • Voyager Therapeutics (VYGR -$0.19),
  • AxoGen (AXGN -$0.09),
  • Fate Therapeutics (FATE -$0.08),
  • Adverum Biotechnologies (ADVM -$0.07),
  • Solid Biosciences (SLDB -$0.07),
  • Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS -$0.04 after Monday’s -$1.93),
  • Brainstorm Cell Therapeutics (BCLI -$0.0297)
  • Sangamo Therapeutics (SGMO -$0.0285)

Flat (2);

  • Homology Medicine (FIXX)
  • MiMedx (MDXG)

Closing Up (10 of 19):

  • Beam Therapeutics (BEAM +$ after Monday’s -$2.55),
  • Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE +$0.66 after Monday’s -$0.85),
  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP +$0.53 after Monday’s -$2.98),
  • Verve Therapeutics (VERV +$0.51 after Monday’s -$1.48),
  • Vericel (VCEL +$0.50),
  • Regenxbio (RGNX +$0.43),
  • Prime Medicine (PRME +$0.34 after Monday’s -$0.80),
  • Sage Therapeutics (SAGE +$0.32 after Monday’s -$0.82),
  • Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA +$0.27 after Monday’s -$2.21),
  • BioLife Solutions (BLFS +$0.27),

 

Q4/23 – October

  • Tuesday closed positive with 19 incliners, 14 decliners and 2 flats
  • Monday closed negative with 4 incliners, 30 decliners and 1 flat

 

The BOTTOM LINE: I try to keep it simple … and short!

Don’t get depressed; unfortunately share pricing weakness is a short-term enemy.  Momentum with increased volume will encroach on share pricing’s upside; if you were a subscriber … you would understand why!

  • Uncertainty has pervaded the first two sessions of October …  a market that needs validation which will NOT be endorsed by cell and gene therapy sector sentiment or upcoming earnings.
  • Key word of the state of uncertainty in “our” universe of cell and gene therapy … “which makes It difficult to predict where sector is headed in the short run.”
  • While sentiment is definitely slipping as exits appear in the second session of the new month and Q.

 

Contributing to today’s (10/3): sector continues through … UNCERTAINTY

  • Concern over the impact of higher interest rates,
  • The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note rose a further 7 basis points to 4.76% after hitting 16-year highs on Monday.
  • Seasonal weakness is “pretty normal” for the market in September and October,
  • While fear spread on trading floors as the session continued, with the Cboe Volatility Index (VIX)jumping to its highest level since May <above 20 for the first time since late May>,
  • This week's key jobs (JOLTS) data,
  • Volume on the Nasdaq was higher compared with the same time on Monday.
  • The small-cap Russell 2000 also fell over 1%, as did the Innovator IBD 50 ETF (FFTY).
  • And last but not least – the political polarization of the government and its squabbles

 

The cell and gene therapy sector equities share pricing barely ASCENDED on Tuesday after Monday, Friday, Thursday, after last Wednesday’s flip to the upside (after diving mid-day) following last Tuesday’s positive close.

  • When a cell and gene therapy sector equity sells-off to or below a buy point, investors face a tough decision: hold tight, exit or trim the position.
  • There's not necessarily a "right" answer. Sometimes the stock will bounce right back, others will keep falling — perhaps after briefly bouncing.

 

It’s still about the economy … STUPID as investors congest a raft of economic reports pointing to … tamer core inflation data and a spending consumer.

  • Right up front, “I also hate to be so negative or contrarian but, this is a NO spin zone and truth is its product; I can always be WRONG but … I am mostly EARLY!”

 

The top three (3) performing in the session:

Tuesday: Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE) and Beam Therapeutics (BEAM) and CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP),

Monday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), MiMedx (MDXG)

The worst three (3) in the session:

Tuesday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Blueprint medicine (BPMC) and Harvard Apparatus GN (HRGN)

Monday: CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP), Beam Therapeutics (BEAM) and Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA)

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice. Whether information or intelligence is good, bad, or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor, and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication. Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities.

I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.