October 4, 2023 7:39am
After a whiskey-tango-foxtrot Tuesday; econ, politics – removal of House of Reps speaker McCarthy and inflation concerns taunting a barely cell and gene therapy sector upside
Pre-open Indications: 1 Sell into Strength, 1 Negative and 2 Positive Indications
News: REGENXBIO (RGNX +$0.46 pre-open) announced additional interim safety data and initial efficacy data from the P1/2 AFFINITY DUCHENNE™ trial of RGX-202 for the treatment of Duchenne Muscular Dystrophy (Duchenne).
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8:00 a.m. edition
Remember that overnight and pre-open actions in futures don't necessarily translate into actual trading in the coming day’s session. My interpretation of the morning’s numbers is written to be informative; it’s built on what could happen or materialize
Dow futures are UP +0.13% or (41 points), S&P futures are UP +0.14% or (+6 points) and NASDAQ futures are UP +0.12% or (+18 points) early in the pre-open – so far
Stock futures were barely up on Wednesday,
European markets traded negatively,
Asia-Pacific markets traded lower
Henry’omics:
We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies …
Indexes fell following the report as a tighter labor market could put more pressure on the Fed to keep interest rates as the Dow closed DOWN -430.97 points or -1.29%, the S&P closed DOWN -58.94 points or -1.37% while the Nasdaq closed DOWN -248.31 points or -1.87%.
Economic Data Docket: purchasing and housing orders plus more <see Bottom Line>
Tuesday’s (10/3) RegMed Investors’ (RMi) closing bell: “When you’re on a roller coaster. The only thing you can be sure of is you’ll end up close to where you started.” … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/13147
Ebb and flow:
Q4: October – 1 positive and 1 negative closes
Q3:
· September – 1 holiday, 8 positive and 12 negative closes
· August – 9 positive and 14 negative closes
· July - 1 holiday, 12 positive and 8 negative close
Companies in my headlights – It’s your decision; I provide ideas and context:
I post about “indication intelligence” devoting my time to collection and analysis of information to assist investors with insight into sector vulnerabilities and strengths. A dictionary definition of “indicate” refers to something less than a certainty; an indication could be a signal of being oversold or overbought, a recommendation, or grounds for inferring or a basis for believing.
Sell into Strength:
Tuesday’s closing price, some Monday, Friday, Thursday, and last Wednesday, closing “numbers” with aftermarket dollar ($) and cent ($0.00) value and percentage (%)
Verve Therapeutics (VERV) closed up +$0.51 after Monday’s -$1.48 after Friday’s +$0.30, Thursday’s +$0.31, Wednesday’s -$0.36 and last Tuesday’s +$1.57 with a positive +$0.61 or +4.96% aftermarket indications
Negative Indications:
Tuesday’s closing price, some Monday, Friday, Thursday, Wednesday, and last Tuesday’s closing “numbers” with aftermarket dollar ($) and cent ($0.00) value and percentage (%)
Maintaining, Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE) closed up +$0.66 after Monday’s -$0.85, Friday’s +$0.48, Thursday’s -$1.74 and last Wednesday’s-$0.50 with a negative -$1.07 or -3.02% pre-open indication.
Positive indications:
Tuesday’s closing price, some Monday, Friday, Thursday Wednesday and last Tuesday, Monday closing “numbers” with aftermarket dollar ($) and cent ($0.00) value and percentage (%)
REGENXBIO (RGNX) closed up +$0.43 with a positive +$0.46 or +2.79% aftermarket indication on news of RGX-202 an investigational one-time AAV therapeutic for Duchenne, using the NAV® AAV8 vector to deliver a transgene for a novel microdystrophin that includes the functional elements of the C-Terminal (CT) domain as well as a muscle-specific promoter to support a targeted therapy for improved resistance to muscle damage associated with Duchenne.
Maintaining, Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA) closed up +$0.27 after Monday’s -$2.21, Friday’s -$0.14 and Thursday’s -$0.33 with a positive +$0.26 or +0.88% pre-open indication
The BOTTOM LINE: So far in October, Interest rates are the primary driver of equity performance.
The Nasdaq rally attempt is still on as long as it doesn't undercut its Sept. 27 intraday low, but the signs aren't looking good. It's hard to see stocks ending their slide, even in the short run, until the 10-year Treasury bond yield pulls back. <IBD>
- Although, Q4 historically has been the best quarter for the U.S. stock market …
- The surprise increase in job openings comes at an unwelcome time where markets are hoping for data that eases the Fed’s inflation concerns,
- What's also “spooking” the market and cell and gene therapy sector is volatility …
- After 1 positive and 1 negative close in the new October, three (3) negative weekly closes and twelve (12) negative closes of twenty-one (21) in the month of September; hope springs eternal, which is NOT a technical indicator.
- An issue, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield hit new highs, trading as high as 4.714% before closing at 4.68%.
- Fed said last month it may hike rates again as it struggles to bring inflation closer to its 2% annual target.
Consider an interesting quote, "breadth statistics" are an important sign for investors to pay attention to. If you start to see, under the surface, an improvement in breath...that would be the kind of positive divergence …” < Charles Schwab Chief Investment Strategist Liz Ann Sonders>
Weekly Economic data Calendar:
Wednesday:
- MBA Mortgage Applications, week ending September 29 (-1.3% previously);
- ADP employment change, September (150,000 expected, 177,000 expected);
- Factory orders, August (+0.2% expected);
- Durable goods orders, August final (+0.2% previously);
- ISM Services Index, September (53.5 expected, 54.5 previously)
- S&P Global US Services PMI, September, final (50.2 expected, 50.2 previously);
- S&P Global US Composite PMI, September, final (50.1 previously)
I hate to be so negative or contrarian but, this is a NO spin zone and facts are its product; I am more frequently right than consequentially wrong but, I am mostly EARLY!
- I am more frequently right than consequentially wrong; if you want to be liked, don’t be an analyst/journalist.
Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice. All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.
Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors. All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives. Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.
Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors could hold or have positions securities referred to in this publication and he will NOTIFY investors of holdings.
