October 4, 2023 4:51pm

After writing, “a bounce back: after a whiskey-tango-foxtrot” Tuesday; econ, politics – removal of House of Reps speaker McCarthy and inflation concerns taunt the cell and gene therapy sector

Pre-open Indications: 2 Hits and 2 Miss

Subscription is coming, it is not conscription but, an offer to join our collective of like-minded investors!  Join me … in the NO spin zone.

The cell and gene therapy sector is very over-sold and hoping and looking for any catalysts to rally from recent bottoms

Never leave an investor uninformed! 

The Dow closed UP +127.17 points or +0.39%, the S&P closed UP +34.30 points or +0.81% while the Nasdaq closed UP +176.54 points or +1.35%

 

What’s SAFE … “No one company is immune in the sector and this market of rolling downdrafts? Welcome to my world of defining the “grey’ in our universe!”

Investors are going to need to prepare for another reporting cycle to confirm whether or not a bottom is even close to happening.

Is "uncle algo and his electronic dwarfs" coming to visit - he usually brings presents when he is invited when called upon!

 

Henry’omics:

We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies …

Indexes ticked-up and up on Wednesday as Treasury yields pulled back from multiyear highs following the release of much weaker-than-expected jobs data.

Economic Data Docket: ADP said 89,000 private payrolls were added last month. That’s well below a Dow Jones forecast of 160,000 and fewer than an upwardly revised 180,000 payroll additions from August.

  • The ISM nonmanufacturing index came in at 53.6 for September, slightly below a forecast of 53.7; below the August reading of 54.5.

 

52-week low:

  • REGENXBIO (RGNX) at $15.51
  • Sangamo Therapeutics (SGMO) at $0.55
  • Solid BioSciences (SDB) at $2.35
  • uniQure NV (QURE) at $6.03

 

Wednesday (10/4) … RegMed Investors’ (RMi) Opening Bell: “a bounce back? … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/13148

 

Pre-Open indications: 2 Hit < Verve Therapeutics (VERV -$0.30), Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE -$1.22). and 2 Miss < REGENXBIO (RGNX -$1.34), Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA -$0.74)>

 

RegMed/Stem/Cell and Gene Therapy’s 35 covered equities’ Advance/Decline (A/D) lines: what happened – differences …

  • Wednesday’s advance/decline line opened negative with 5 up, 28 down and 2 flats, stayed negative at the mid-day with 7 up/ 25 down and 3 flats, ending with a negative close of 8 incliners, 27 decliners and 0 flat

 

Ebb and flow:

Q4:  October –2 negative and 1 positive closes

·         Q3: September – 1 holiday, 8 positive and 12 negative closes

·         August – 9 positive and 14 negative closes

·          July - 1 holiday, 12 positive and 8 negative close

 

Key Metrics:

The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:

  • Wednesday, the IBB was up +0.72% and the XBI was down -1.06%

The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:

  • Wednesday was down -1.32 point or -6.47% at 18.50

 

Closing Down (10 of 27):

  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY -$3.74 after Tuesday’s -$6.05 and Monday’s +$1.86),
  • Blueprint Medicine (BPMC -$2.29 after Tuesday’s -$0.33 after Monday’s -$1.36),
  • Regenxbio (RGNX -$1.34 after Tuesday’s +$0.43),
  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP -$1.32 after Tuesday’s +$0.53 and Monday’s -$2.98),
  • Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE -$1.22 after Tuesday’s +$0.66 and Monday’s -$0.85),
  • Beam Therapeutics (BEAM -$0.85 after Tuesday’s +$ and Monday’s -$2.55),
  • Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA -$0.74 after Tuesday’s +$0.27 and Monday’s -$2.21),
  • Sage Therapeutics (SAGE -$0.41 after Tuesday’s +$0.32 and Monday’s -$0.82),
  • Prime Medicine (PRME -$0.39 after Tuesday’s +$0.34 and Monday’s -$0.80),
  • Verve Therapeutics (VERV -$0.30 after Tuesday’s +$0.51 and Monday’s -$1.48),

Closing Up (8 of 8):

  • Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS +$0.28 after Tuesday’s -$0.04 after Monday’s -$1.93),
  • Vericel (VCEL +$0.25 after Tuesday’s +$0.50),
  • Harvard Apparatus GN (HRGN +$0.10 after Tuesday’s -$0.23 after Monday’s +$0.07)
  • Compass Therapeutics (CMPX +$0.07),
  • Brainstorm Cell Therapeutics (BCLI +$0.02 after Tuesday’s -$0.0297),
  • Adverum Biotechnologies (ADVM +$0.01 after Tuesday’s -$0.07),
  • Precigen (PGEN +$0.01),

 

Q4/23 – October

  • Wednesday closed negative with 8 incliners, 27 decliners and 0 flat

 

The BOTTOM LINE: I try to keep it simple … and short!

“A rout in government bond markets deepened on Wednesday with benchmark U.S. yields hitting fresh 16-year highs as investors bet that persistently high interest rates will slow world growth and dampen the appetite for riskier assets.” <Reuters>

  • The market is being dragged around by interest rates …
  • Uncertainty has pervaded the first two sessions of October …  a market that needs validation which will NOT be endorsed by cell and gene therapy sector sentiment or upcoming earnings.
  • Key word of the state of uncertainty in “our” universe of cell and gene therapy … “which makes It difficult to predict where sector is headed in the short run.”
  • While sentiment is definitely slipping as exits appear in the third (3rd) session of the new month and Q.

Contributing to today’s (10/4): the sector continues to suffer through depression and … UNCERTAINTY

  • Seasonal weakness is “pretty normal” for the market in September and October,
  • The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note rose a further 7 basis points to 4.76% after hitting 16-year highs on Monday.
  • Concern over the impact of higher interest rates,
  • And last but not least – the political polarization of the government and its squabbles

The cell and gene therapy sector equities share pricing barely pooped the bed on Wednesday after ASCENDING on Tuesday after Monday, Friday, Thursday, negativity after last Wednesday’s flip to the upside (after diving mid-day).

  • When a cell and gene therapy sector equity sells-off to or below a buy point, investors face a tough decision: hold tight, exit or trim the position.
  • There's not necessarily a "right" answer. Sometimes the stock will bounce right back, others will keep falling — perhaps after briefly bouncing.

A warning, “DoubleLine Capital CEO Jeffrey Gundlach directed investors to a phenomenon in the bond market, which he believes marks a recession warning.

  • The spread between the 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields tightened to 35 basis points, compared to a gap of 108 basis points a few months ago, Gundlach pointed out. This “de-inverting” of the key part of the yield curve could be a tell-tale sign that an economic downturn is imminent.” <CNBC>

It’s still about the economy … STUPID as investors congest a raft of economic reports pointing to … tamer core inflation data and a spending consumer.

  • Right up front, “I also hate to be so negative or contrarian but, this is a NO spin zone and truth is its product; I can always be WRONG but … I am mostly EARLY!”

 

The top three (3) performing in the session:

Wednesday: Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS), Vericel (VCEL) and Harvard Apparatus GN (HRGN)

Tuesday: Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE) and Beam Therapeutics (BEAM) and CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP),

Monday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), MiMedx (MDXG)

The worst three (3) in the session:

Wednesday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) – 2x, Blueprint Medicine (BPMC) -2x and REGENXBIO (RGNX)

Tuesday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Blueprint Medicine (BPMC) and Harvard Apparatus GN (HRGN)

Monday: CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP), Beam Therapeutics (BEAM) and Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA)

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice. Whether information or intelligence is good, bad, or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor, and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication. Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities.

I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.