October 13, 2023 4:48pm

Pulling at opposite ends of a rope as algos and electronic trading dragged resistance over the line in the sand   

Subscription is coming, it is not conscription but, an offer to join our collective of like-minded investors!  Join me … in the NO spin zone.

News: Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA +$0.92) the European Medicines Agency (EMA) has granted Priority Medicine (PRIME) designation to NTLA-2002 for the treatment of hereditary angioedema (HAE). NTLA-2002 is an in vivo CRISPR-based investigational therapy designed to prevent potentially life-threatening swelling attacks in people with HAE.

Never leave an investor uninformed!

The week in review

The Dow closed UP +39.15 points or +0.12%, the S&P closed DOWN -21.83 points or -0.50% while the Nasdaq closed DOWN -166.99 points or -1.23%

 

What’s SAFE … “No one company is immune in the sector and this market of rolling downdrafts? Welcome to my world of defining the “grey’ in our universe!”

Investors are going to need to prepare for another reporting cycle to confirm whether or not a bottom is even close to happening.

 

Henry’omics:

We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies …

Indexes closed mixed having come off their session highs after consumer sentiment data was released earlier Friday

Volume fell on the Nasdaq, compared with Thursday's trading at the same time of day.

The S&P 500 and Dow were headed for weekly gains; while the Nasdaq was down slightly week to date.

Economic Data Docket: Markets were rattled after preliminary October numbers from the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment reading came in at 63.0 vs. estimates for 67.5. The number was well below the 68.1 reading from the prior month and stood at its lowest level since May.

  • Consumer sentiment dropped more than expected in October, to a reading of 63 versus 67.5. The number was well below the 68.1 reading from the prior month and stood at its lowest level since May.
  • The data came after September’s consumer-price index showed prices climbed more than analysts were expecting, led by energy and shelter costs.

 

Friday (10/13) … RegMed Investors’ Pre-open (RMi): “what’s my inducement to BUY as resistance scrambles? As investors should be ready to expand some equities or continue to reduce exposure more.” … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/13162

 

RegMed/Stem/Cell and Gene Therapy’s 35 covered equities’ Advance/Decline (A/D) lines: what happened – differences …

  • Friday’s advance/decline line opened negative at 3 up/ 27 down and 5 flats, flipped positive with 22 up/ 11 down and 2 flats at 10 a.m., staying positive with 28 incliners, 7 decliners and 0 flat at the mid-day, ending with a positive close of 28 incliner, 6 decliners and 1 flat
  • Thursday’s advance/decline line opened negative at 3 up/ 27 down and 5 flats, stayed negative with 0 up/ 35 down and 0 flat at the mid-day, ending with a negative close of 1 incliner, 32 decliners and 2 flats
  • Wednesday’s advance/decline line opened positive at 26 up/ 8 down and 1 flat, flipped negative with 10 up/ 23 down and 2 flats at the mid-day, ending with a negative close of 10 incliners, 21 decliners and 4 flats
  • Tuesday’s advance/decline line opened positive at 21 up/ 10 down and 4 flats, stayed positive with 29 up/ 5 down and 1 flat at the mid-day, ending with a positive close of 28 incliners, 6 decliners and 1 flat
  • Monday’s advance/decline line opened negative at 2 up/ 29 down and 4 flats, stayed negative with 7 up/ 26 down and 2 flats at the mid-day, ending with a negative close of 10 incliners, 23 decliners and 2 flats

 

52-week low:

  • Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE) at $32.01
  • bluebird bio (BLUE) at $2.55
  • Solid Biosciences (SLDB) at $2.13

 

Ebb and flow:

Q4:  October – 6 negative and 4 positive closes

·         Q3: September – 1 holiday, 8 positive and 12 negative closes

·         August – 9 positive and 14 negative closes

·          July - 1 holiday, 12 positive and 8 negative close

 

Key Metrics:

The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:

  • Friday, the IBB was up +0.40% and the XBI was up +1.38%
  • Thursday, the IBB was down -2.01% and the XBI was down -3.66%
  • Wednesday, the IBB was up +0.49% and the XBI was down -1.05%
  • Tuesday, the IBB was up +0.81% and the XBI was up +0.67%
  • Monday, the IBB was down -0.36% and the XBI was down -0.79%

The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:

  • Friday was up +2.70 points or +16.18% at 19.39
  • Thursday was up +0.69 points or +4.29% at 16.78
  • Wednesday was down -0.85 points or -4.99% at 16.18
  • Tuesday was down -0.67 point or -3.79% at 17.03
  • Monday was up +0.21 point or +1.20% at 17.66

 

Closing Down (6 of 6):

  • Harvard Apparatus GN (HRGN -$9,75 after Thursday’s $0.00, Wednesday’s +$0.03, Tuesday’s $0.00 and Monday’s $0.00),
  • AxoGen (AXGN -$0.13),
  • Fate Therapeutics (FATE -$0.05),
  • Adverum Biotechnologies (ADVM -$0.02),
  • Bellicum Pharmaceuticals (BLCM -$0.0107 after Thursday’s -$0.025),
  • Generation Bio (GBIO -$0.01 after Thursday’s +$0.015)

Flat (1):

  • Cellectis SA (CLLS)

Closing Up (10 of 29):

  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY +$2.83 after Thursday’s -$2.53, Wednesday’s -$1.24, Tuesday’s +$0.74 and Monday’s -$8.60),
  • Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS +$1.88 after Thursday’s -$0.81 after Wednesday’s -$0.26),
  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP +$1.28 after Thursday’s -$1.70, Wednesday’s +$0.89, Tuesday’s +$1.33 and Monday’s -$0.55),
  • Beam Therapeutics (BEAM +$1.05 after Thursday’s -$1.10, Wednesday’s +$0.03, Tuesday’s +$0.36 and Monday’s +$0.49)
  • Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE +$0.93 after Thursday’s -$3.62, Wednesday’s -$0.34, Tuesday’s +$ after Monday’s +$0.45),
  • Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA +$0.92 after Thursday’s -$1.34 and Wednesday’s +$0.12),
  • Vericel (VCEL +$0.71 after Thursday’s -$2.68, Wednesday’s -$1.21, Tuesday’s +$0.38 and Monday’s +$0.27),
  • Blueprint Medicine (BPMC +$0.52 after Thursday’s -$1.94, Wednesday’s -$0.13, Tuesday’s -$0.13 after Monday’s +$0.98),
  • Sage Therapeutics (SAGE +$0.61),
  • Blueprint Medicine (BPMC +$0.52),

 

Q4/23 – October

  • Friday closed positive with 28 incliner, 6 decliners and 1 flat
  • Thursday closed negative with 1 incliner, xx decliners and 1 flat
  • Wednesday closed negative with 10 incliners, 21 decliners and 4 flats
  • Tuesday closed positive with 28 incliners, 6 decliners and 1 flat
  • Monday (10/9) closed negative with 10 incliners, 23 decliners and 2 flats

 

The BOTTOM LINE: Key word of the state of uncertainty in “our” universe of cell and gene therapy … “which makes It difficult to predict where sector is headed in the short run.”

  • While the three (3) major indexes opened higher but lost ground after a preliminary reading on U.S. consumer sentiment showed a sharp fall in October.
  • Cell and gene therapy sector stocks were mostly higher in trading Friday as investors digested WEAK data on consumer sentiment, along with a hotter-than-expected inflation report.
  • Spare the sell call, ruin the portfolio

 

I STILL believe the political aspect of the country’s polarization, and disparities of the debt ceilings and rate hike arguments are contributing to the roller coaster ride for share pricing actions. The cell and gene therapy sector is defined by “When you’re on a roller coaster, the only thing you can be sure of is you’ll end up back where you started” <me>

A quote of interest, “As more economic data rolls in, investors will be paying attention to any clues that may hint to the Fed's next moves. While 92% of traders anticipate that the central bank will hike interest rates in November, 29.5% expect another 25-basis point rate increase in November, according to Dow Jones Market Data.” <Barron’s>

 

The cell and gene therapy sector equities share pricing ascended on Friday

  • After Thursday DIVED again after Wednesday’s decline
  • After popping on Tuesday following Monday and last Friday declines.

 

Quote from Tuesday, "Geopolitical risk doesn't tend to linger long in markets, but there are many second-order impacts that could come through in the weeks, months, and years ahead from this weekend's developments." <Deutsche Bank strategist Jim Reid>.

  • Welcome to my world of defining the “grey’ in our universe!

 

Consider: Implied volatility shows how much movement the market is expecting in the future.

  • Options with high levels of implied volatility suggest that investors in the underlying stocks are expecting a big move in one direction or the other.
  • It could also mean there is an event coming up soon that may cause a big rally or a huge sell-off. However, implied volatility is only one piece of the puzzle when putting together an options trading strategy.

 

What’s behind the numbers: a risk off-sentiment …

  • Ending the week with too many geopolitical risks and start of earnings season has investors buying cautiously and selling into uncertainty,
  • U.S. Treasury prices rose as investors looked for safety while the price of U.S. crude oil rose more than 5%.
  • The 10-year Treasury yield declined even after the hotter-than-expected inflation data, hitting its lowest level since Sept. 29. The 10-year recently lost more than 6 basis points to 4.59%. The 2-year yield, meanwhile, moved higher by less than 1 basis point to 4.993.

 

Right up front, “I also hate to be so negative or contrarian but, this is a NO spin zone and truth is its product; I can always be WRONG but … I am mostly EARLY!”

Focus should be on the upcoming quarterly earnings season!

 

The top three (3) performing in the session:

  • Friday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS) and CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP)
  • Thursday: Generation Bio (GBIO)
  • Wednesday: CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP), Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS) and Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA)
  • Tuesday: CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP), Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals RARE) -2x and Regenxbio (RGNX)
  • Monday: Vericel (VCEL), Beam Therapeutics (BEAM) and Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals RARE) 

The worst three (3) in the session:

  • Friday: Harvard Apparatus RN (HRGN), AxoGen (AXGN) and Fate Therapeutics (FATE)
  • Thursday: Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals RARE), Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) – 2x and Vericel (VCEL) -2x
  • Wednesday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Vericel (VCEL) and Prime Medicine (PRME) -2x
  • Tuesday: MiMedx (MDXG), Prime Medicine (PRME) and Blueprint Medine (BPMC)
  • Monday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP) and uniQure NV (QURE)

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice. Whether information or intelligence is good, bad, or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor, and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication. Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities.

I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.