October 16, 2023 7:37am

Set aside volatility and mixed economic data; there still aren't good reasons to be investing, companies are saving ANY news for the LPS <loss-per-share> “earnings season”

News: Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical (RARE +$4.39 pre-open) and Mereo BioPharma Group plc (MREO +$0.01) announced interim data from the P2 portion of the P2/3 Orbit study demonstrating that treatment with setrusumab (UX143) significantly reduced incidence of fractures in patients with OI with at least 6 months of follow-up and continues to demonstrate ongoing and meaningful improvements in lumbar spine bone mineral density (BMD).

Pre-Open Indications: 5 Sell into Strength, 1 Positive and 1 Negative Indications

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Keep your finger on the sell button, but still keep a buy ticket in the other hand

Never leave an investor uninformed!

8:00 a.m. edition

Remember that overnight and pre-open actions in futures don't necessarily translate into actual trading in the coming day’s session. My interpretation of the morning’s numbers is written to be informative; it’s built on what could happen or materialize

Instead of harping on NOT buying the right names at the right time or NOT waiting long enough to take profit, I suggest dropping the "shoulda, coulda, wouldas" and thinking about where your portfolio is most vulnerable!

 

The Dow futures are UP +0.44% or (+149 points), the S&P is UP +0.29% or (+12 points) and the Nasdaq is UP +0.08% or (+11 points)

Stock futures are mixed and fluctuating on Monday,

European markets turned lower, after starting the new trading week on a positive note,

Asia-Pacific markets started the week with stocks in Tokyo leading declines

 

Henry’omics:

We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies …

Friday, indexes closed mixed as the Dow closed UP +39.15 points or +0.12%, the S&P closed DOWN -21.83 points or -0.50% while the Nasdaq closed DOWN -166.99 points or -1.23%.

Economic Data Docket: Empire Fed manufacturing, October (-5 expected, +1.9 previously)

 

Friday’s (10/13) RegMed Investors’ (RMi) closing bell: “winning the tug-of-war. Pulling at opposite ends of a rope as algos and electronic trading dragged resistance over the line in the sand.” …   https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/13163

 

Ebb and flow:

Q4: October – 4 positive and 5 negative closes

Q3:

·         September – 1 holiday, 8 positive and 12 negative closes

·         August – 9 positive and 14 negative closes

·         July - 1 holiday, 12 positive and 8 negative close

 

Companies in my headlights – It’s your decision; I provide ideas and context:

I post about “indication intelligence” devoting my time to collection and analysis of information to assist investors with insight into sector vulnerabilities and strengths. A dictionary definition of “indicate” refers to something less than a certainty; an indication could be a signal of being oversold or overbought, a recommendation, or grounds for inferring or a basis for believing.

Sell into Strength:

Friday’s closing price, some Thursday Wednesday Tuesday and last Monday, closing “numbers” with aftermarket dollar ($) and cent ($0.00) value and percentage (%)

Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) closed up +$2.83 after Thursday’s -$2.53, Wednesday’s -$1.24, Tuesday’s +$0.74 and Monday’s -$8.60 with a positive +$0.93 or +0.55% aftermarket indication

Beam Therapeutics (BEAM) closed up +$1.05 after Thursday’s -$1.10, Wednesday’s +$0.03, Tuesday’s +$0.36 and Monday’s +$0.49 with a neutral aftermarket indication.

Prime Medicine (PRME) closed up +$0.46 with a positive +$0.15 or +2.11% aftermarket indication.

Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE) closed up +$0.93 after Thursday’s -$3.62, Wednesday’s -$0.34, Tuesday’s +$ after Monday’s +$0.45 with a positive +$4.39 or +13.08% aftermarket indication

Vericel (VCEL) closed up +$0.71 after Thursday’s -$2.68, Wednesday’s -$1.21, Tuesday’s +$0.38 and Monday’s +$0.27 with a positive +$0.07 or +0.22% aftermarket indication.

 

Positive indications:

Frisday’s closing price, some Thursday Wednesday Tuesday and last Monday, closing “numbers” with aftermarket dollar ($) and cent ($0.00) value and percentage (%)

Blueprint Medicine (BPMC) closed up +$0.52 after Thursday’s -$1.94, Wednesday’s -$0.13, Tuesday’s -$0.13 after Monday’s +$0.98 with a positive +$1.07 or +2.19% pre-open indication

 

Negative Indication:

Friday’s closing price, some Thursday Wednesday Tuesday and last Monday, closing “numbers” with aftermarket dollar ($) and cent ($0.00) value and percentage (%)

Sage Therapeutics (SAGE) closed up +$0.61 with a negative -$0.21 or -1.07% pre-open indication

 

 

The BOTTOM LINE: Confidence perceived is not always value achieved!

Investors should be cautious about new buys with the market rally struggling and earnings season picking up steam. Selling some recent buys may be warranted.

  • The stock market rally started the week strong, extending gains from the Nasdaq's (Oct. 6) follow-through day, helped by tumbling Treasury yields.
  • However, the major indexes stalled out amid whipsaw Treasury moves, while underlying market action was weaker.
  • Preliminary October numbers from the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment reading came in at 63.0 vs. estimates for 67.5 rattling indexes. The number was well below the 68.1 reading from the prior month and stood at its lowest level since May.

 

Today’s relevancy … Ben Graham used to talk about the stock market being a cross between a voting machine and a weighing machine.

  • During “earning’s” season, traders vote by buying and selling shares, and in the short run, the trades happen at the levels dictated by whether the buyers or sellers are motivated by meeting “street” expectation versus LPS (loss-per-share) as compared to net income.
  • There is the voting machine of this sector. In the short run, values can be pretty senseless if one side or the other decides to be aggressive in their buying or selling.

 

The real question is what to do in a volatile market pre-earnings!

  • Trade the ups, building cash position; buying the lows so they can eventually be the overbought through unbridled speculation and then trade again.

 

What the sector patterns and markets are telling me:

  • Market breadth has been weak
  • Uncertainty
  • A weak aftermarket
  • Economic/inflation releases
  • A sentiment factor driven by algorithms and electronic trading,
  • Remember, the closer we get to earnings releases <LPS or loss per share sweepstakes> the leaner gains or expressive losses are going to be!
  • The ongoing Israel-Hamas war has raised questions of a potential oil supply crunch and a resulting rise in fuel prices if the geopolitical instability spreads to neighboring oil producers in the region.

 

For the week:

·         The S&P 500 is up 19.28 points, or 0.4%.

·         The Dow is up 262.71 points, or 0.8%.

·         The Nasdaq is down 24.11 points, or 0.2%

·         The Russell 2000 is down 25.85 points, or 1.5%.

For the year:

·         The S&P 500 is up 488.28 points, or 12.7%.

·         The Dow is up 523.04 points, or 1.6%.

·         The Nasdaq is up 2,940.75 points, or 28.1%

·         The Russell 2000 is down 41.53 points, or 2.4%.

 

Weekly Economic Data Calendar …

  • Tuesday Economic data: National Association of Home Builders sentiment index, October (45 expected, 45 previously); Industrial production, month-over-month, September (-0.1% expected, +0.4% prior) Retail sales month-over-month, September (+0.3% expected, 0.6% previously); Retail sales month-over-month, excluding auto and gas, September (+0.1%, +0.2% previously)
  • Wednesday Economic data: Building permits, September, month-over-month (-5.9%% expected, +6.9% previously); Housing starts, September, month-over-month (+8.5% expected, -11.3% previously); MBA mortgage applications, week ending Oct. 13 (+0.6%, previously)
  • Thursday Economic data: Initial jobless claims, week ending Oct. 14 (209,000 previously); Philly Fed Business outlook, October (-6.4 expected, -13.5 previously); Existing home sales, September, month-over-month (-3.5% expected, -0.7% previously); Leading index of economic indicators, September (-0.4% expected, -0.4% previously)
  • Friday Economic data: No notable economic releases. <source: Josh Schafer is a reporter for Yahoo Finance>

 

I hate to be so negative or contrarian but, this is a NO spin zone and facts are its product; I am more frequently right than consequentially wrong but, I am mostly EARLY!

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice. All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.  Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors could hold or have positions securities referred to in this publication and he will NOTIFY investors of holdings.