October 24, 2023 4:45pm
However, post the ascent, the overbought will be created too only last so long. After careful examination of the sector and breathe trends, I believe in caution.
Having lived through the rise and multiple declines of “our” universe’s stock price, investors need to be better informed on what fluctuating markets can do to a sector equity, or what impact follow through sessions miss on indications or expectations can have.
Pre-open Indications: 3 Hits and 1 Miss
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The Dow closed UP +204.97 points or +0.62%, the S&P closed UP +30.64 points or +0.73% while the Nasdaq closed UP +121.55 points or +0.93%
Investors are going to need to prepare for another earnings’ reporting cycle to confirm whether or not any bottoms are even close to happening.
We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies …
Indexes closed up to a positive close as investors focused on middle-east actions unfolding as stare holders monitored the latest moves in Treasury yields.
Economic Data Docket: business activity in the U.S. has ticked higher this month, according to S&P Global's advance "flash" purchasing managers' indexes (PMI) … a "goldilocks" report, was "generally a good report" with prices moderating and "okay" employment.
RegMed/Stem/Cell and Gene Therapy’s 35 covered equities’ Advance/Decline (A/D) lines: what happened – differences …
- Tuesday’s advance/decline line opened positive at 25 up/ 8 down and 2 flats, stayed positive with 28 incliners, 7 decliners and 0 flat at the mid-day, ending with a positive close of 26 incliners, 8 decliners and 1 flat
Pre-open Indications: 3 Hits < BioLife Solutions (BLFS +$0.10), Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA +$0.32), Verve Therapeutics (VERV +$0.39)> and 1 Miss < Agenus (AGEN -$0.12) – 2x, even with Monday’s news>
- Generation Bio (GBIO) at $0.96
- Cellectis SA (CLLS) at $1.13
Ebb and flow:
Q4: October – 10 negative and 7 positive closes
The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:
- Tuesday, the IBB was up +1.15% and the XBI was up +2.19%
The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:
- Tuesday was down -1.26 points or -6.19% at 19.11
Closing Down (8 of 8):
- Sangamo Therapeutics (SGMO -$0.0007),
- BrainStorm Cell Therapeutics (BCLI -$0.0139),
- Mesoblast MESO -$0.03 after Monday’s +$0.09),
- Adverum Biotechnologies (ADVM -$0.0335 after Monday’s +$0.0332),
- Compass Therapeutics (CMPX -$0.06),
- Agenus (AGEN -$0.12 after Monday’s -$0.03),
- Cellectis SA (CLLS -$0.13),
- Prime Medicine (PRME -$0.14),
- Homology Medicine (FIXX)
Closing Up (10 of 26):
- Blueprint Medicine (BPMC +$2.08 after Monday’s -$2.07),
- Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY +$1.96 after Monday’s +$0.21),
- Vericel (VCEL +$1.91 after Monday’s +$0.33),
- CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP +$1.41 after Monday’s +$1.48),
- Sage Therapeutics (SAGE +$0.74),
- Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS +$0.49 after Monday’s $0.37),
- Beam Therapeutics (BEAM +$0.43 after Monday’s +$1.41),
- Verve Therapeutics (VERV +$0.39),
- Harvard Apparatus GN (HRGN +$0.38 after Monday’s -$0.59),
- Regenxbio (RGNX +$0.34 after Monday’s -$0.59),
Q4/23 – October
- Tuesday closed positive with 26 incliners, 8 decliners and 1 flat
The BOTTOM LINE: underlines the framework of share pricing actions with a sigh of relief …
Framing the main takeaway … pricing, volume and machine trading creates volatility and liquidity!
- Tuesday, cell and gene therapy sector equities advanced (26 incliners/8 decliners and 1 flat)
- Monday’s advance/decline line ended with a positive close of 9 incliners, 26 decliners and 0 flat
- Friday’s advance/decline line ended with a negative close of 9 incliners, 25 decliners and 1 flat
- Thursday’s advance/decline line ended with a negative close of 5 incliners, 26 decliners and 4 flats
- Wednesday’s advance/decline line ended with a negative close of 5 incliners, 30 decliners and 0 flat
- The previous Tuesday’s advance/decline line ended with a barely positive close of 17 incliners, 16 decliners and 2 flats
Geopolitics and politics continue to hang over the market’s head, but it’s hard to know which way they will break. We would continue to play defense within both equities and fixed income, while waiting for a better opportunity to add risk."<Sameer Samana, senior global market strategist at Wells Fargo Investment Institute>
- Q3 GDP data on Thursday, along with the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report, the U.S. central bank's preferred inflation gauge, on Friday, could help shape medium-term expectations for U.S. rates.
- Middle East conflict still weighed on the market as investors assessed the chances of it breaking out into a wider war. The rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East could drive a global recession, leading investors have warned.
- I STILL believe the political aspect of the U.S.’s polarization, and disparities of the debt ceilings and rate hike arguments are contributing to the roller coaster ride for share pricing actions.
The cell and gene therapy sector equities share pricing closed positive on Tuesday after closing negative on Monday, Friday, Thursday and Wednesday following inclines on last Tuesday.
What’s behind the numbers:
- The sector and overall stock market tends to consistently rise and fall over the short-term with alternating volatility and involuntary momentum contraction.
- I remain EXTREMELY cautious as upcoming earnings may have a more significant negative impact on share price due to missed consensus as estimates will lessen valuations.
Welcome to my world of defining the “grey’ in our universe!
The top three (3) performing in the session:
- Tuesday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) – 2x, Vericel (VCEL) and Blueprint Medicine (BLMC)
- Monday: CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP), Beam Therapeutics (BEAM) and Vericel (VCEL)
The worst three (3) in the session:
- Tuesday: Prime Medicine (PRME), Cellectis SA (CLLS) and Agenus (AGEN)
- Monday: Blueprint Medicine (BPMC), Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE) and Harvard Apparatus RN (HRGN)
Right up front, “I also hate to be so negative or contrarian but, this is a NO spin zone and truth is its product; I can always be WRONG but … I am mostly EARLY!”
- Focus should be on the upcoming quarterly earnings season!
Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice. Whether information or intelligence is good, bad, or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors. All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.
Henry McCusker, the editor, and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication. Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities.
I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.