December 4, 2023 7:37am

A rise in risky equities’ share pricing knowing that bad things can happen?

Pre-open Indications: 2 Positive, 2 Negative and 3 Sell into Strength

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I say today what others won't, so you can do what others can't whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.

 

The pre-open Dow futures are DOWN -0.24% or (-88 points), the S&P is DOWN -0.36% or (-16 points) as the Nasdaq is DOWN -0.47% or (-76 points)

Stock futures were lower on Monday,

European markets were mixed,

Asia Pacific markets were mixed.

 

Henry’omics:

We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies …

Indexes closed positive as December started … the Dow closed UP +294.61 points or +0.82%, the S&P closed UP +26.83 points or +0.59% while the Nasdaq closed UP +78.81 points or +0.05%.

Economic Data Docket: Projections (Friday) are that the November jobs report will show the national unemployment rate holding at 3.9% with an estimated 175,000 jobs created during the month. The unemployment rate has been below 4% for nearly two years. The estimates will be revised later on, the initial report will grab the attention of both markets and the Fed, which starts its two-day meeting on Dec. 12.    <The Street>

 

Friday, RegMed Investors (RMi) Closing Bell: “I love drama of market and sector ascensions, tells me … gotta sell some … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/13229   

 

Q4:  December – 1 positive close

·         November – 11 positive, 1 holiday and 10 negative closes

·         October – 1 sick day, 9 positive and 12 negative closes

 

Companies in my headlights – It’s your decision; I provide ideas and context: 

I post about “indication intelligence” devoting my time to collection and analysis of information to assist investors with insight into sector vulnerabilities and strengths. A dictionary definition of “indicate” refers to something less than a certainty; an indication could be a signal of being oversold or overbought, a recommendation, or grounds for inferring or a basis for believing.

 

Positive Indications:

Friday’s closing price, some Thursday, Wednesday, Tuesday and Monday closing “numbers” with aftermarket dollar ($) and cent ($0.00) value and percentage (%)

Caribou Biosciences (CRBU) closed down -$0.18 after Thursday’s -$0.09, Wednesday’s +0.13, Tuesday’s +$0.08 and last Monday’s +$0.09 with a positive +$0.04 or +0.70% aftermarket indication

Sage Therapeutics (SAGE) closed up +$0.81 after Thursday’s +$0.10, Wednesday’s +$0.21, Tuesday’s +$0.16 and last Monday’s -$0.39 with a positive +$0.56 or +2.75% pre-open indication.

 

Negative indications:

Friday’s closing price, some Thursday, Wednesday, Tuesday and Monday closing “numbers” with aftermarket dollar ($) and cent ($0.00) value and percentage (%)

Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE) closed up +$1.31 after Thursday’s -$0.26, Wednesday’s +$0.65, Tuesday’s -$0.15 and last Monday’s -$0.53 with a negative -$0.91 or -2.27% aftermarket indication

Verve Therapeutics (VERV) closed up +$0.51 on Friday after closing its offering with a negative -$0.28 or -2.37% aftermarket indication as “flippers” will take its toll?

 

Sell into Strength Indications:

Friday’s closing price, some Thursday, Wednesday, Tuesday and Monday closing “numbers” with aftermarket dollar ($) and cent ($0.00) value and percentage (%)

Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) closed up +$3.16 after Thursday’s +$4.24, Wednesday’s +$2.65, Tuesday’s +$2.17 and last Monday’s -$3.72 with a negative -$0.41 or -0.24% aftermarket indication.

Blueprint Medicine (BPMC) closed up +$2.41 after Thursday’s +$1.16, Wednesday’s +$0.11, Tuesday +$1.16,  -$0.75 and last Monday’s +$0.67 with a $0.00 aftermarket indication.

Prime Medicine (PRME) closed up +$0.80 after Thursday’s +$0.09 with a positive +$0.08 or +0.99% aftermarket indication.

 

The BOTTOM LINE:  Investors should consider getting defensive.

  • If dead wood or too struggling share pricings are in the portfolio; especially those desperately needing a financing, lacking a partner, restructuring and needing a financing or just wallowing in the market …
  • Portfolio rebalancing might also involve taking some profits in some ascending cell and gene therapy equities.
  • It’s up to you to decide!
  • I am STILL waiting for catalysts to justify recent upside appreciation as some news sinks the share pricing other than algorithmic electronic trading!
  • I also DON’T believe totally we are finished with economic speedbumps and rate increases in THIS end of year and upcoming 2024 market.
  • Being that I have concerns over the resiliency of upside moves that usually end in downward sells as the risk/reward profile doesn’t always compel elevated and “dramatic” i.e., sudden equity pricing.
  • While optimism for December remains high, some analysts worry the run-up has been too big, too fast. <The Street>
  • Again, it might be prudent to harvest and cash in some chips following the past month’s dramatic rally.

 

Today’s relevancy from Friday’s session:

  • The Nasdaq’s gain of 11.3% was its best since July 2022 as well, and it's up 36.7% this year.
  • The small-cap Russell 2000 jumped 3.05% for the week, almost entirely on Friday, to decisively clear the 200-day moving average after hitting resistance multiple times.
  • The Russell 2000 finally blasted above a key level as several other breadth indicators flashed green.

 

Interesting backgrounder, for the year:

·         The S&P 500 is up 755.13 points, or 19.7%.

·         The Dow is up 3,098.25 points, or 9.3%.

·         The Nasdaq is up 3,838.55 points, or 36.7%.

·         The Russell 2000 is up 101.40 points, or 5.8%.

 

So, it's time to think ahead to December. It's usually an important month for the Nasdaq.

  • But, don’t FORGET portfolio tax selling and a bit of rebalancing
  • And then comes January and with worries that the U.S. economy will be slowing down, the potential for continued Middle East violence and, of course, the real prospect of bitterly contested elections across all of the United States. <The Street>

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice. All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.  Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors could hold or have positions securities referred to in this publication and he will NOTIFY investors of holdings.