December 6, 2023 7:35am

As 2023 simmers, consider portfolios with a focus on pipelines, catalyst time tables (and if exist or can be met), partners, cash “runways,” potential of financings, question transitioning’s, and “restructurings, as well as communicative CEOs with less BS and finally when bottoms occur <the list does go on>

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While many talk about the shift in alternating sentiment, I monitor the pulse and focus of possible outcomes. But reality turns out to be a little less appealing:

I am right more often than not and investors have always been able to count on … RMi for return on investment (ROI); stick to the numbers, there is not always a return on speculation!

 

The pre-open Dow futures are UP +0.08% or (+30 points), the S&P is UP +0.14% or (+6 points) as the Nasdaq is UP +0.15% or (+23 points)

Remember that overnight action in a.m. Futures and global markets doesn't necessarily translate into actual trading in the today’s market session.

U.S. stock futures are up/positive on Wednesday,

European markets were higher,

Asia Pacific markets rebounded across the region.

 

Henry’omics:

We need to more than consider the economic environment to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies …

Tuesday, the Dow fell -0.22%, the S&P 500 lost -0.06% while the Nasdaq climbed +0.31 in Tuesday's market trading.

Economic Data Docket: The rate for the popular 30-year mortgage fell back toward 7% after hitting 8% earlier this fall. Applications to refinance a home loan Index increased 14% from the previous week and were 10% higher than the same week one year ago. Applications for a mortgage to purchase a home fell 0.3% for the week and were 17% lower than a year earlier. A few more later in day.

 

Tuesday, RegMed Investors (RMi) Closing Bell: “what strength (?) another right thesis yet again. As I had written: We're in a period of sector rotation, and people are trying to figure out what cell and gene therapy sector equities at are going to continue to do well and what are the stocks that are going to suffer” and the “rise in risky equities’ share pricing knowing that bad things can happen?” … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/13233

 

Q4:  December – 2 positive and 1 negative closes

  • November – 11 positives, 1 holiday and 10 negative closes
  • October – 1 sick day, 9 positive and 12 negative closes

 

Companies in my headlights – It’s your decision; I provide ideas and context: looking for lost SHEAP …

I post about “indication intelligence” devoting my time to collection and analysis of information to assist investors with insight into sector vulnerabilities and strengths. A dictionary definition of “indicate” refers to something less than a certainty; an indication could be a signal of being oversold or overbought, a recommendation, or grounds for inferring or a basis for believing.

 

Yet again, I am passing on forecasting the daily indications; funky aftermarkets after rundowns!

It’s just mixed signals, followed by a weak aftermarket as markets follow November’s end … take gains, and hold as to those who WILL seek to recapitalize cash positions by discounted stock and pricing offerings!

 

The BOTTOM LINE:  Not changing my “tune” …

I remain a skeptic, thus maintaining; investors should consider getting defensive…

  • If dead wood or too struggling share pricings are in the portfolio; especially those desperately needing a financing, lacking a partner, restructuring and needing a financing or just wallowing in the market …
  • Portfolio rebalancing might also involve taking some profits in some ascending cell and gene therapy equities.
  • It’s up to you to decide!
  • I am STILL waiting for catalysts to justify recent upside appreciation as some news sinks the share pricing other than algorithmic electronic trading!
  • I also DON’T believe totally we are finished with economic speedbumps and rate increases in THIS end of year and upcoming 2024 market.
  • Being that I have concerns over the resiliency of upside moves that usually end in downward sells as the risk/reward profile doesn’t always compel elevated and “dramatic” i.e., sudden equity pricing.
  • While optimism for December remains high, some analysts worry the run-up has been too big, too fast. <The Street>
  • Again, it might be prudent to harvest and cash in some chips following the past month’s dramatic rally.

 

Excellent article: With the stock market in ‘striking distance’ of all-time high, Wharton’s Jeremy Siegel warns the only thing that can derail it is Jerome Powell <Fortune>

https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/stock-market-striking-distance-time-115815758.html

 

Some bad news:

Axcella Health (AXLA) closed its doors, with stockholders approving the dissolution of the metabolic modulator biotech.

  • It was one of the only new drugs in development for long Covid is closing its doors.
  • Founded by Flagship Pioneering in 2011, the public biotech—previously known as Axcella Therapeutics—will be liquidating and dissolving, according to 12/4 documents filed with the SEC. The vote follows the 11/1 termination of President and CEO William Hinshaw, Jr., as well as Chief Legal Officer Paul Fehlner, as the biotech prepared for the company’s closure. <Fierce Biotech>

 

Today’s relevancy from Tuesday’s session:

  • The 10-year Treasury yield tumbled 11.5 basis points to 4.17%, hitting a three-month low. The odds of a March Fed rate cut are now over 65% vs. about 35% a week earlier.
  • The small-cap Russell 2000 fell 1.4%. That followed a 2.9% jump Friday and a 1.1% gain Monday.
  • It wasn't a good day for the cell and gene therapy sector, it was a “churn and bun fiesta.
  • The Dow is holding at 52-week highs while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq are trading just below their 52-week highs.

 

investors should “stand pat” while juggling a buy/sell tab - to see if “uncle algo and his electronic dwarfs” st6art nibbling!

 

So, it's time to think ahead to December. It's usually an important month for the Nasdaq.

  • But, don’t FORGET portfolio tax selling and a bit of rebalancing
  • And then comes January and with worries that the U.S. economy will be slowing down, the potential for continued Middle East violence and, of course, the real prospect of bitterly contested elections across all of the United States. <The Street>

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice. All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.  Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors could hold or have positions securities referred to in this publication and he will NOTIFY investors of holdings.