RegMed Investors’ (RMi) pre-open: cull the portfolio before the portfolio/cattle drive into the new year

December 8, 2023 8:27am

Don’t be a DRAG RIDER, one follows the herd to push the stragglers

Pre-open Indications: 1 Positive, 2 Negative and 3 Sell into Strength Indications

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While many talk about the shift in alternating sentiment, I monitor the pulse and focus of possible outcomes. But reality turns out to be a little less appealing:

Remember that overnight action in a.m. Futures and global markets doesn't necessarily translate into actual trading in the today’s market session.

I am right more often than not and investors have always been able to count on … RMi for return on investment (ROI); stick to the numbers, there is not always a return on speculation!

The pre-open Dow futures are DOWN -0.26% or (-96 points), the S&P is DOWN -0.33% or (-15 points) as the Nasdaq is DOWN -0.66% or (-107 points)

Stock futures floated down on Friday morning as investors looked ahead to a key U.S. jobs report,

European markets edged higher,

Asia-Pacific markets were mixed as Japan’s third-quarter GDP was revised downward.

Henry’omics:

We need to more than consider the economic environment to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies …

Yesterday Thursday; The Dow closed UP +62.95 points or +0.17%, the S&P closed UP +36.25 points or +0.80% while the Nasdaq closed UP +193.28 points or +1.37%

Economic Data Docket: November nonfarm payrolls report ...

Unemployment is coming down 3.7% …

• The move in futures came as yields popped following November’s nonfarm payrolls report showed an unexpected drop in unemployment, which fell to 3.7%. The economy added 199,000 jobs during November, slightly ahead of the 190,000 jobs expected by Dow Jones.
• University of Michigan’s preliminary consumer sentiment data for December, which is scheduled to be released at 10 a.m. ET

Thursday, RegMed Investors (RMi) Closing Bell: “thanks to the upside, I’m herding my portfolio to a roundup” … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/13237

Q4:  December – 4 positive and 1 negative closes

• November – 11 positives, 1 holiday and 10 negative closes
• October – 1 sick day, 9 positive and 12 negative closes

Companies in my headlights – It’s your decision; I provide ideas and context: looking for lost SHEAP …

I post about “indication intelligence” devoting my time to collection and analysis of information to assist investors with insight into sector vulnerabilities and strengths. A dictionary definition of “indicate” refers to something less than a certainty; an indication could be a signal of being oversold or overbought, a recommendation, or grounds for inferring or a basis for believing.

Sell into Strength Indications:

Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) closed up +$2.24 after Wednesday’s +$4.65, Tuesday’s -$2.50 and Monday’s +$1.36 with a positive +$0.04 or +0.02% aftermarket indication.

Blueprint Medicine (BPMC) closed up +$1.36 after Wednesday’s -$0.89, Tuesday’s +$0.59 and Monday’s +$0.70 with a neutral $0.00 or 0% aftermarket indication.

Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE) closed up +$0.31 after Wednesday’s -$0.90, Tuesday’s +$0.79 and Monday’s +$1.09 with a positive +$0.19 or +0.46% aftermarket indication.

Negative Indications:

Thursday’s closing price, some Wednesday, Tuesday, Monday and last Friday’s closing “numbers” with aftermarket dollar ($) and cent ($0.00) value and percentage (%)

Solid Biosciences (SLDB) closed up +$2.34 after receiving Fast Track Designation from the FDA for SGT-003, it’s next-generation Duchenne muscular dystrophy (Duchenne) gene therapy candidate after Wednesday’s -$0.33, Tuesday’s +$0.31 and Monday’s +$0.52 with a negative -$0.27 or -4.69% pre-open indication.

Regenxbio (RGNX) closed up +$0.82 with a negative -$0.19 or -0.92% aftermarket indication.

Positive Indications:

Thursday’s closing price, some Wednesday, Tuesday, Monday and last Friday’s closing “numbers” with aftermarket dollar ($) and cent ($0.00) value and percentage (%)

Prime Medicine (PRME) closed up +$0.17 after Wednesday’s +$0.54 and Tuesday’s -$0.22 with a positive +$0.54 or +6.31% pre-open indication.

The BOTTOM LINE:  Not changing my “tune” …

I remain a skeptic, thus maintaining; investors should consider getting defensive…

• If dead wood or too struggling share pricings are in the portfolio; especially those desperately needing a financing, lacking a partner, restructuring and needing a financing or just wallowing in the market …
• Portfolio rebalancing might also involve taking some profits in some ascending cell and gene therapy equities.
• It’s up to you to decide!
• I am STILL waiting for catalysts to justify recent upside appreciation as some news sinks the share pricing other than algorithmic electronic trading!
• I also DON’T believe totally we are finished with economic speedbumps and rate increases in THIS end of year and upcoming 2024 market.
• Being that I have concerns over the resiliency of upside moves that usually end in downward sells as the risk/reward profile doesn’t always compel elevated and “dramatic” i.e., sudden equity pricing.
• While optimism for December remains high, some analysts worry the run-up has been too big, too fast. <The Street>
• Again, it might be prudent to harvest and cash in some chips following the past month’s dramatic rally.

Today’s relevancy from Thursday’s session:

• Treasury yields and crude oil continued to tumble amid concerns that the economy is slowing too quickly.The yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note fell 5 basis points to 4.119% after hitting a fresh three-month low of 4.106%, suggesting the bond market is anticipating a weak jobs report on Friday.
• The two-year U.S. Treasury yield, which typically moves in step with interest rate expectations, was up 3 basis point to 4.603%. <Reuters>
• The main event of the week will be November's non-farm payrolls report, due on Friday, which will give investors more clarity about the state of the labor market and the outlook for interest rates.
• Notice I did NOT advocate this am, having the patience to hold tight is important for investors, even active traders.

Investors should juggle a buy or sell tab -to see if “uncle algo and his electronic dwarfs” start nibbling!

So, it's time to think ahead to December. It's usually an important month for the Nasdaq.

• But, don’t FORGET portfolio tax selling and a bit of rebalancing
• And then comes January and with worries that the U.S. economy will be slowing down, the potential for continued Middle East violence and, of course, the real prospect of bitterly contested elections across all of the United States. <The Street>

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice. All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.  Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors could hold or have positions securities referred to in this publication and he will NOTIFY investors of holdings.