December 20, 2023 5:03pm

Like I continually state, “the sector is … still what it is, until it isn’t and even then, it doesn’t seem to be.”

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Investors need to be better informed on what fluctuating economics and markets can do to a cell and gene therapy sector equity, or what impact indications or expectations can have.

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Welcome to my world of defining the “grey’ in our universe!

I follow the dictum, quoting Churchill that “short words are best, and the old words when short are best of all.”

 

The Dow closed DOWN -475.92 points or -1.27%, the S&P closed DOWN -70.02 points or -1.47% while the Nasdaq closed DOWN -225.28 points or -1.50%

 

Henry’omics:

We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies …

Indexes tumbled on Wednesday as investors cashed in some profits following the market’s recent hot streak.

The pullback comes after a robust session Tuesday when the Dow and the Nasdaq both notched a nine-day advance.

“Markets were becoming overbought, and a pullback like this is natural given those conditions. So, it was more technical than fundamental.” <Keith Buchanan, senior portfolio manager at Globalt Investments>

Economic Data Docket: sales of previously owned US homes edged higher in November off of a 13-year low, according to a National Association of Realtors report, earlier data showed mortgage rates fell to their lowest since June.

  • The Conference Board said its consumer confidence index increased to 110.7 this month from November's downwardly revised 101.0. Economists had expected an increase to 104.0 from 102.0 as previously reported.

 

RegMed/Stem/Cell and Gene Therapy’s 35 covered equities’ Advance/Decline (A/D) lines: what happened – differences …

  • Wednesday’s advance/decline line was negative at the open with 8 incliners, 24 decliners and 3 flats, stayed negative at the mid-day with 12 declined, 9 incliners and 2 flats, ending with a negative close of 2 incliners, 31 decliners and 2 flats 
  • Tuesday’s advance/decline line was positive at the open with 26 incliners, 6 decliners and 3 flats, stayed positive at the mid-day with 24 declined, 9 incliners and 2 flats, ending with a positive close of 26 incliners, 8 decliners and 1 flat 
  • Monday’s advance/decline line was negative at the open with 9 incliners, 25 decliners and 1 flat, stayed negative at the mid-day with 10 declined, 24 incliners and 1 flat, ending with a negative close of 11 incliners, 24 decliners and 0 flat 

 

RegMed Investors’ (RMi) pre-open: let ‘em roll as futures slip. Until they don’t, remember hope is not a good strategy.” … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/13255

 

Ebb and flow of MY covered sector cell and gene therapy session daily “endings”:

Q4:  December – 7 negative and 7 positive closes

  • November – 11 positives, 1 holiday and 10 negative closes
  • October – 12 negative and 10 positive closes

 

Key Metrics:

The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:

  • Wednesday, the IBB was down -2.95% and the XBI was down -4.39%

The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:

  • Wednesday was up +1.07 point or +8.54% at 13.60

 

Wednesday’s Closing Down (10 of 31):

  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY -$8.45 after Tuesday’s +$1.27 and Monday’s +$0.99),
  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP -$6.02 after Tuesday’s +$5.43 and Monday’s -$0.68),
  • Blueprint Medicine (BPMC -$3.84),
  • Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE -$2.82 after Tuesday’s +$2.55),
  • Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA -$2.40 after Tuesday’s +$1.67 and Monday’s -$0.43),
  • Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS -$1.98 after Tuesday’s -$0.40 and Monday’s +$1.01),
  • Beam Therapeutics (BEAM -$1.88 after Tuesday’s +$2.06 and Monday’s -$0.97
  • Sage Therapeutics (SAGE -$1.34 after Tuesday’s +$1.07 and Monday’s -$0.51),
  • Regenxbio (RGNX -$1.31),
  • bluebird bio (BLUE -$1.11 after Tuesday’s -$0.62 and Monday’s -$0.22),

Flat (2):

  • Harvard Apparatus GN (HRGN)
  • Graphite Bio (GRPH)

Wednesday’s Closing Up (2 of 2):

  • Cellectis SA (CLLS +$0.20),
  • Adverum Biotechnologies (ADVM +$0.0011),

 

Q4/23 – December

  • Wednesday closed negative with 2 incliners, 31 decliners and 2 flats
  • Tuesday closed positive with 26 incliners, 8 decliners and 1 flat
  • Monday (12/18) closed negative with 11 incliners, 24 decliners and 0 flat

 

The BOTTOM LINE: How many times, can I be right! Consider these end-of-day results as Wednesday’s primer.

  • Musical chairs, the merry-go-round and even the spinning tea-cup rides capsulate the sector and its moves.  Right after as “uncle algo(rithms) and his electronic dwarfs came yet … again to speculate!

 

I am out-of-here today, time to enjoy the holiday – get some shopping done and start the download of activities; although I might catch-up a final Friday closing bell.

 

bluebird bio (BLUE)Stock Is in Free Fall Weeks After a Landmark FDA Approval. Here’s Why. <Josh Nathan-Kazis – <Barron’s title>

  • Two weeks ago, BLUE secured FDA approval for its gene therapy for sickle cell disease, a significant milestone for the roughly 100,000 people in the U.S. who suffer from the condition.
  • BLUE promptly filed for an offering that was minimized in size (from $150 M to $125 M) and a thoroughly diminished pricing at $1.50 (last Friday’s price = $3.27 followed by Monday’s $3.05 and Tuesday’s $2.43) and is trading Wednesday at $1.32 down -1.11 or -45.68% today.

 

Wednesday’s backdrop:

  • The S&P 500 has risen more than 3% this month and more than 22% year to date, while the Dow has added more than 3% and 12%, respectively. The Nasdaq is up by more than 4% for December and 41% for 2023, putting it on pace for its best year since 2020. <CNBC>
  • The yield on the US 10-year was down three basis points to 3.91% after reaching July levels before the reports, the benchmark rate is down more than 40 basis points this month.
  • An auction of 20-year Treasuries this afternoon could also spur fresh moves in the market. “There is a risk that a weak auction outcome could pour some cold water on bonds and lead to some profit taking in equities ahead of more critical economic data due in the back half of the week.” <Tom Essaye, the founder of The Sevens Report newsletter>
  • US investors will next turn to upcoming data readouts, including Thursday’s GDP print and Friday’s data on personal consumption expenditures — the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge.

 

From Tuesday, “We remain cautious on risky assets and the broader macro-outlook due to the interest rate shock (over the past 18 months) that should negatively impact economic activity, fading consumer strength. Thus, even in an optimistic scenario, we believe upside is limited for risky assets, favoring cash and bonds over equities from a risk-reward standpoint.” Marko Kolanovic, the bank’s co-head of global research.

 

It's time to think ahead to December’s end and 2024’s Q1.

  • Don’t FORGET portfolio December tax selling and a bit of rebalancing … “Investors NEED to start formulating their portfolio outlook into next year.”
  • It might be prudent to harvest and cash in some chips following the past month’s dramatic rally.
  • And then comes January and with worries that the U.S. economy will be slowing down, the potential for continued Middle East violence and, of course, the real prospect of bitterly contested elections across all of the United States. <The Street>

The top three (3) performing in the session:

  • Wednesday: Cellectis SA (CLLS) and Adverum Biotechnologies (ADVM)
  • Tuesday: CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP), Beam Therapeutics (BEAM) and Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE)
  • Monday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS) and Fate Therapeutics (FATE)

The worst three (3) in the session:

  • Wednesday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP) and Blueprint Medicine (BPMC)
  • Tuesday: uniQure NV (QURE), bluebird bio (BLUE) and Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS)
  • Monday: Vericel (VCEL), Beam Therapeutics (BEAM) and CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP)

Welcome to my world of defining the “grey’ in our universe!

  • Right up front, “I also hate to be so negative or contrarian but, this is a NO spin zone and facts are its product; I can always be WRONG but … I am mostly EARLY!”

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice. Whether information or intelligence is good, bad, or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor, and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication. Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities.

I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.