February 12, 2024 7:20am

No super bowl flu here, but a week including inflation and consumer spending highlighting the economic condition

Pre-open Indications: 4 Sell into Strength, 2 Positive and 1 Negative Indications

Earnings’ reporting this week: Sage Therapeutics (SAGE) with Blueprint Medicine (BPMC) on 2/14 and Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) and Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE) on 2/15

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Never leave an investor uninformed!

Remember that overnight and pre-open actions’ futures and global markets doesn't necessarily translate into actual trading in the today’s market session.

There is no breadline for share pricing and fact-based intelligence!

I also follow the dictum, quoting Churchill that “short words are best, and the old words when short are best of all.”

 

Monday: The pre-open Dow futures are DOWN -0.08% or (-32 points), the S&P futures are UP +0.01% or (+1 points) as the Nasdaq futures are UP +0.04% or (+6 points)

U.S. stock futures were mixed and slightly positive early Monday,

European markets kicked off the new trading week higher

Asia markets were mixed to start a holiday-shortened week for most markets, while China remains shut for the week.

 

Henry’omics:

We need to more than consider the economic environment to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies …

Friday, indexes closed mixed as the Dow closed DOWN -54.64 points or -0.14%, the S&P closed UP +28.70 points +0.57% while the Nasdaq closed UP +196.95 points or +1.25%.

Last week, the S&P added +1.4%, while the Nasdaq’s gained +2.3%. while the Dow finished 0.1%.

Economic Data Docket: CPI, a key inflationary gauge — set to be released on Tuesday morning. More key economic data is expected on Thursday and Friday, including January’s reading on retail sales, production, imports and exports, housing starts and the producer price index, or PPI.

 

Friday’s night RegMed Investors (RMi) Closing Bell: “hang-on to reward prospects for a while. As risk will be illuminated by next week’s earnings’ LPS (loss-per-share) reporting.” … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/13323

 

Q1/24: February – 4 positive and 3 negative closes

  • January: 2 holidays, 11 negative and 8 positive closes

 

Companies in my headlights – It’s your decision; I provide ideas and context:

I post about “indication intelligence” devoting my time to collection and analysis of information to assist investors with insight into sector vulnerabilities and strengths. A dictionary definition of “indicate” refers to something less than a certainty; an indication could be a signal of being oversold or overbought, a recommendation, or grounds for inferring or a basis for believing.

Sell into Strength:

Friday, Thursday, Wednesday, Tuesday and last Monday’s closing “numbers” with aftermarket dollar ($) and cent ($0.00) value and percentage (%)

Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) closed up +$0.53 after Thursday’s +$0.90, Wednesday’s -$3.58, Tuesday’s +$1.48 and Monday’s -$2.36 with a positive +$0.02 or +0.01% pre-open indication.

Blueprint Medicine (BPMC) closed up +$2.38 after Thursday’s -$0.04 and Wednesday’s -$2.97 with a +$3.36 or +4.39% pre-open indication. <earnings this week>

Vericel (VCEL) closed up +$0.93 after Thursday’s +$1.62, Wednesday’s +$0.07, Tuesday’s +$0.94 and last Monday’s +$0.33 with a positive +$1.46 or +3.12% pre-open indication.

Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE) closed up +$1.28 after Thursday’s +$0.74, Wednesday’s -$1.18, Tuesday’s +$1.13 and Monday’s +$1.74 with a positive +$0.22 or +0.47% pre-open indication. <earnings this week>

 

Positive Indication:

Friday, Thursday, Wednesday, Tuesday, Monday’s closing “numbers” with aftermarket dollar ($) and cent ($0.00) value and percentage (%)

Adverum Biotechnologies (ADVM) closed down -$0.24 after Thursday’s -$0.84, Wednesday’s +$0.31, Tuesday’s +$0.59 and Monday’s +$0.49 with a positive +$07 or +4.05% pre-open indication.

Regenxbio (RGNX) closed -$0.08 after Thursday’s +$1.72, Wednesday’s +$1.52, Tuesday’s +$0.73 and Monday’s +$0.08 with a positive +$0.32 or +$1.97% pre-open indication.

 

Negative Indications:

Friday, Thursday, Wednesday, Tuesday and last Monday’s closing “numbers” with aftermarket dollar ($) and cent ($0.00) value and percentage (%)

Sage Therapeutics (SAGE) closed down -$0.09 after Thursday’s -$0.13 and Wednesday’s -$0.81 with a negative -$0.97 or -4.09% pre-open indication. <Earnings this week>

 

The BOTTOM LINE: From Friday, “Don't chase the cell and gene therapy sector, especially with the Nasdaq extended.

The remainder of the month’s trading sessions will be critical as the RegMed sector will begin earnings’ LPS (loss-per-share) season, estimates and consensus which set market reaction. 

  • Coming attractions …Q4 and FY23 reporting season will ALSO report “runways” and those whose cash positions render their future questionable.

That is WHY I focus on INDICATIONS … Skim if you can trim, buy if it will fly and sell if compelled!

  • As I wrote on last week “When it comes to short-term investing or trading; the trend is NOT your friend.”  Just wait a session and the direction will change from tailwinds to headwinds … or NOT!

Monday thoughts coming after Friday’s actions: market and sector are looking extended; investors should be cautious about new buys!

  • The stock market rally continued to advance this past week, with the S&P 500 moving above 5,000 for the first time. The Nasdaq composite powered higher, briefly topping 16,000 and nearing all-time highs. <IBD>
  • The 10-year Treasury dipped to 4.18%.
  • The small-cap Russell 2000 rebounded 2.4% in a big outside week after testing key levels. It closed above the key 2,000 level for the first time this year.
  • With Nasdaq and Russell 2000 picking up steam late in the week, more stocks flashed buy signals. Some were huge earnings gap-ups such as Palantir, but not all.
  • Still, the number of buying opportunities remains fairly modest, while many of the big leaders are greatly extended. <IBD>

Welcome to my world of defining the “grey’ in our universe!

  • Right up front, “I also hate to be so negative or contrarian but, this is a NO spin zone and facts are its product; I can always be WRONG but … I am mostly EARLY!”
  • The sector is what it is, until it isn’t and even then, it doesn’t seem to be… as NOT much changes as the sector’s share pricing rides the waves of volatility, algorithms, electronic trading and short covering.

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice. All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.  Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors could hold or have positions securities referred to in this publication and he will NOTIFY investors of holdings.