April 25, 2024 4:39pm

Expectation falls short; watching-out below as contractionary GDP number and 1st sector earnings released

A 360-degree review of the who, why, when and what happened in the sector as the market and economics surround your portfolio’s defense or offence.

Last week, I wrote that I favor … caution over the next few weeks!  Sticking to MY position.

Never leave an investor uninformed! A trusted source of factual reporting!

The present and future value of RegMed Investors (RMi) NEWS sheds light on the stem, cell and gene therapy sector’s risks to share pricing and the sector’s upside acrobatics and potential downslides.

I write this blog/newsletter about – facts in evidence! 

 

Thursday: The Dow closed DOWN -375.12 points or -0.98%, the S&P closed DOWN -23.21 points or -0.46% while the Nasdaq closed DOWN -100.99 points or -0.64%

 

Henry’omics:

We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies …

Indexes tumbled Thursday after the latest U.S. economic data showed a sharp slowdown in growth and pointed to persistent inflation.

  • Unexpectedly hot inflation, job market and GDP readings have extended the runway for the Fed to cut borrowing costs, which a central bank committee hiked to a range of 5.25 percent to 5.5 percent last July from near 0% in March 2022.

Economic Data Docket: U.S. gross domestic product expanded 1.6% in the first quarter, the Bureau of Economic Analysis said. Economists forecasted GDP growth would come in at 2.4%. Along with the downbeat growth rate for the quarter, the report showed consumer prices increased at a 3.4% pace.

 

Thursday’s RegMed Investors’ (RMi) opening bell: “expectation versus reality. Traders’ angst centers on key economic data releases which usually send equities seesawing back and forth.” …  https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/13433

 

Advance/Decline (A/D) Line:

  • Thursday’s advance/decline line at the open was negative with 4 incliner, 30 decliners and 1 flat; ending with a negative close of 6 incliners, 28 decliners and 1 flat

 

Ebb and flow of MY covered sector cell and gene therapy session daily “endings”:

Q2/24: 15 negative and 4 positive closes

Q1/24:

  • March, 1 holiday, 8 positive and 12 negative closes
  • February, 1 holiday, 9 negative and 11 positive closes
  • January: 2 holiday, 12 negative and 8 positive closes

 

All-time low:

  • uniQure NV (QURE) at $4.42
  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) at $142.92
  • Prime Medicine (PRME) at $4.1
  • Editas Medicine (EDIT) at $5.22
  • Verve Therapeutics (VERV) at $6.28
  • Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA) at $20.53

 

Key Metrics:

The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:

  • Thursday, the IBB was down -1.64% and the XBI was down -2.08%

The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:

  • Thursday was down -0.55 point or -3.45% at 15.42

 

Thursday’s Closing Down (10 of 28):

  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP -$1.92 after Wednesday’s -$0.76, Tuesday’s +$0.75 and Monday’s +$0.61),
  • Blueprint Medicine (-$1.53),
  • Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA-$1.15 after Wednesday’s -$0.36 and Tuesday’s -$0.23),
  • Beam Therapeutics (BEAM -$1.14 after Wednesday’s -$0.73 and Tuesday’s -$0.66),
  • Adverum Biotechnologies (ADVM -$0.80 after Wednesday’s -$0.81 and Tuesday’s -$0.34),
  • Vericel (VCEL -$0.66 after Wednesday’s -$0.31, Tuesday’s +$1.04 and Monday’s +$1.64),
  • Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS -$0.61 after Wednesday’s +$0.61, Tuesday’s +$0.77 and Monday’s +$0.39),
  • Fate Therapeutics (FATE -$0.43),
  • Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE -$0.43 after Wednesday’s -$1.84, Tuesday’s +$1.42 and Monday’s +$1.32),
  • Sage Therapeutics (SAGE -$0.42 after Wednesday’s +$1.05),

Flat (1):

  • Compass Therapeutics (CMPX)

Thursday’s Closing Up (6 of 6):

  • Agenus (AGEN +$0.88 after Wednesday’s +$0.96, Tuesday’s +$0.69 and Monday’s +$0.46),
  • Harvard Apparatus RT (OTCQB: HRGN +$0.07 after Wednesday, Tuesday, and Monday’s $0.00)
  • Generation Bio (GBIO +$0.02 after Wednesday’s -$0.27, Tuesday’s +$0.45 and Monday’s -$0.05),
  • Regenxbio (RGNX +$0.02 after Wednesday’s +$0.14 and Tuesday’s +$0.26)
  • Sangamo Therapeutics (SGMO +$0.01),
  • Homology Medicine (FIXX +$0.0071 and Wednesday’s +$0.0071),

 

Q2/24 – April:

  • Thursday closed negative with 6 incliners, 28 decliners and 1 flat

 

The BOTTOM LINE:  the stocks are falling … I do get preachy at times …

Small caps sold off in weak action on the stock market today as investors also exited long-term U.S. government bonds. The Russell 2000 shrank an early 1.4% drop to 0.8%.

  • Tepid U.S. GDP data pushed the “street” lower before the open, U.S. Treasury yields rose after the data showed signs of persistent inflation.

The focus on Friday's report on inflation: the personal consumption expenditures index, before the open.

A real issue, volatility crank up after the close for Friday’s session.

  • The shifting expectations of U.S. rates have lifted Treasury yields and the dollar, casting a shadow on the currency market. The yield on benchmark U.S. 10-year notes rose 5.2 basis points to 4.706%, from 4.654% late on Wednesday.
  • The 2-year note yield, which typically moves in step with interest rate expectations, rose 6.1 basis points to 4.9975%, from 4.937% late on Wednesday.

 

A quote to read, “In the short term, the numbers don’t appear to be a green light for either bulls or bears...the uncertainty is unlikely to ease pressures in a market experiencing its deepest pullback since last year,” said Chris Larkin, managing director of trading and investing at E*Trade from Morgan Stanley.

 

Q1/24 Reporting Season, it’s all about LPS (loss-per-share), cash positions and runways:

  • MiMedx (MDXG) on 4/30,
  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), AxoGen (AXGN), Blueprint Medicine (BPMC) on Thursday, 5/2;
  • Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS) and Agenus (AGEN) on Tuesday, 5/7
  • Vericel (VCEL) on Wednesday, 5/8

 

Sage Therapeutics (SAGE) reported earnings:

  • Revenue: Reported $7.9 million in total revenue for Q1 2024, surpassing the estimated $5.66 million.
  • Net Loss: Recorded a net loss of $108.48 million, exceeding the estimated net loss of $100.23 million.
  • Earnings Per Share (EPS): Reported a loss of $1.80 per share, slightly above the estimated loss of $1.65 per share.
  • Cash: Ended the quarter with $717 million in cash, cash equivalents, and marketable securities.
  • Runway: Q4/2025
  • R&D Expenses: Research and development expenses amounted to $71.73 million, down from $92.83 million in the previous year.
  • Commercial Progress: ZURZUVAE, for postpartum depression, saw over 700 prescriptions shipped in its first full quarter post-launch.
  • Pipeline Development: P2 study of dalzanemdor in Parkinsons Disease did not meet primary endpoint; ongoing studies in other indications continue.

 

Reiterating:  Is Agenus (AGEN preparing for an offering … $300 common stock, preferred stock, warrants and debt securities … Shelf Filing … Post Effective Amendment … reasoning for the Share Reverse?

https://d18rn0p25nwr6d.cloudfront.net/CIK-0001098972/2aeed437-11b5-4133-be70-d8c22ec43843.pdf

  • A sales agreement prospectus supplement that covers the potential offering, issuance and sale from time to time of up to 134,512,851 shares of Agenus’ common stock pursuant to a sales agreement with B. Riley Securities, Inc. (formerly B. Riley FBR, Inc.).
  • The base prospectus with B. Riley Securities, Inc., any amounts included in the sales agreement prospectus supplement that remain unsold will be available for sale in other offerings pursuant to the base prospectus, and if no shares are sold under the sales agreement, the full amount of this registration statement may be sold in other offerings pursuant to the base prospectus and a corresponding prospectus supplement.

Agenus (AGEN) shares jumped Thursday +$0.88 after Wednesday +$0.96 post Tuesday’s +$0.39, Monday’s $5.70, Friday’s $5.31 +$0.34 after last Thursday’s -$0.43.

  • 4/12, a stock reverse of 1/20 split
  • Notice how AGEN is pushing its earnings release much earlier then is has in past!

 

The top three (3) performing in the session:  

  • Thursday: Agenus (AGEN), Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) and Harvard Apparatus RT (OTCQB: HRGN)
  • Wednesday: Sage Therapeutics (SAGE), Agenus (AGEN) and Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS)
  • Tuesday: Blueprint Medicine (BPMC), Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE) and Vericel (VCEL)
  • Monday: Blueprint Medicine (BPMC), Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) and Vericel (VCEL)

The worst three (3) in the session:

  • Thursday: CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP), Blueprint Medicine (BPMC) and Beam Therapeutics (BEAM),
  • Wednesday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE) and Adverum Biotechnologies (ADVM)
  • Tuesday: Beam Therapeutics (BEAM), Fate Therapeutics (FATE) and Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA)
  • Monday: Sage Therapeutics (SAGE), Graphite BIO (GBIO) and bluebird bio (BLUE)

 

Welcome to my world of defining the “grey’ in our universe!

  • Right up front, “I also hate to be so negative or contrarian but, this is a NO spin zone and facts are its product; I can always be WRONG but … I am mostly EARLY!”

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice. Whether information or intelligence is good, bad, or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor, and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication. Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities.

I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.