January 23, 2025 5:00pm

Rebalance, rotate and sell some highs to pick up those that will come out lagging after upcoming earnings season

Shift into neutral as the sector will be "down drafting and contentious

I am still of the “early” opinion that, a warning, for an overbought sector;  ignoring or dismissing the downside risks in these parabolic moves alongside economic and upcoming earnings season

Never leave an investor uninformed!  I say today what others won't, so you can do what others can't!

On point, short on words, long on facts and being judicious!


I follow the dictum, quoting Churchill that “short words are best, and the old words when short are best of all.”

 

RegMed Investors’ (RMi) pre-open: Threats perceived … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/13776

 

Thursday: The Dow closed UP +408.34 points or +0.92%, the S&P closed UP +32.34 points or +0.53% while the Nasdaq closed UP +44.34 points or +0.22%

•              Indexes rallied to record highs, Thursday

Henry’omics: We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies

  • First-time benefits filings totaled a seasonally adjusted 223,000 for the week ending Jan. 18, up 6,000 from the previous week and close to the estimate for 221,000. Ongoing claims, which run a week behind, rose to just shy of 1.9 M, an increase of 46,000 that took them to their highest level since Nov. 13, 2021.

Thursday’s advance/decline line at the open was negative with 15 incliners, 17 declined and 5 flats; ending with a positive close at the close of 26 incliner, 4 decliners and 5 flats

  • Sector breadth remained strong

Metrics:  Thursday, the IBB was up +1.77%, the XBI was up +1.96% while the VIX was down -0.11points or -0.73% at 14.99

 

Q1/25 – 2 holidays, 1 market close, 5 negative and 9 positive closes

  • Q4/24 – 1 holiday, 6 positive and 15 negative closes
  • November – 1 holiday, 10 negative and 10 positive closes
  • October: 8 positive and 15 negative sessions

 

Thursday’s Closing Down (4 of 4):

  • Vericel (VCEL -$1.111 after Wednesday’s -$1.03),
  • AxoGen (AXGN -$0.19 after Wednesday’s -$0.08),
  • Solid Biosciences (SLDB -$0.12 after Wednesday’s -$0.14 after Tuesday’s -$0.01),
  • Adverum Biotechnologies (ADVM -$),
  • Beam therapeutics (BEAM -$0.10 after Wednesday’s +$1.86 after Tuesday’s +$1.09),

Flat (5)

  • Brainstorm Cell Therapeutics (BCLI),
  • Caribou Biosciences (CRBU)
  • Fate Therapeutics (FATE)
  • Harvard Apparatus (OTCQB: HRGN
  • Homology Medicine (FIXX)

Thursday’s Closing Up (10 of 26): 

  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY +$9.00 after Wednesday’s +$1.55 after Tuesday’s +$18.72 after Friday’s -$2.89
  • Blueprint Medicine (BPMC +$4.55 after Wednesday’s -$0.88 after Tuesday’s +$1.91 after Friday’s +$6.10),
  • Moderna (MRNA +$3.89 after Wednesday’s +$2.61 after Tuesday’s +$1.83 after Friday’s +$0.30),
  • Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS +$1.96 after Wednesday’s -$0.18 after Tuesday’s +$1.25 after Friday’s -$0.85),
  • Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE +$1.91),
  • UniQure NV (QURE +$0.54 after Wednesday’s +$0.38),
  • Compass Therapeutics (CMPX +$0.52 after Wednesday’s -$0.03),
  • Mesoblast (MESO +$0.44 after Wednesday’s -$0.46),
  • BioLife Solutions (BLFS +$0.37 after Wednesday’s -$0.01 after Tuesday’s +$1.34 after Friday’s -$0.31),
  • Lenz Therapeutics (LENZ +$0.30 after Wednesday’s +$0.64 after Tuesday’s +$1.32 after Friday’s +$0.10).

 

 

The BOTTOM LINE:  As the leading voice of cell and gene therapy investors; I am NOT always a doom and gloom analyst/journalist but a man who has been “there” (research analyst in a venture and public fund, operating executive, x-FBI, x-military officer and an adjunct business school (MBA) professor now a journalist) with the gray hair and a readership following with real numbers to prove it!

  • As a quantamental “plotter” I equate myself to a quantitative analyst straddling fundamental stock picking to produce better results for investors. the term “quantamental,” blends the two styles setting forth my difference retail, trading and multiple investor categories.

Think of this market and “our” universe as a game of shuts and ladders or sometimes monopoly … and follow RMi’s “interchanges” to gain profit moves or recoup losses – eat the popcorn and ponder ANY moves!

  • Short on words, long on being Judicious!

 

Another new week closer to January’s end after many “events”

  • “Our” universe’s share pricing is still “dangling” beneath upcoming Q4/2024 earnings releases with no umbrella although some sector companies released preliminary unaudited snapshots of Q4 and FY2024!

January ‘25 recap: understand the “flow” …

  • 1/23 - Thursday ended with a positive close at the close of 26 incliner, 4 decliners and 5 flats
  • 1/22 - Wednesday ended with a positive close at the close of 18 incliner, 14 decliners and 3 flats
  • 1/21 - Tuesday ended with a positive close at the close of 28 incliner, 6 decliners and 1 flat
  • 1/20 – Markets were closed
  • 1/17 - Friday’s advance/decline line ended with a positive close at the close of 21 incliner, 12 decliners and 2 flats
  • 1/16 - Thursday’s advance/decline line ended with a negative close at the close of 10 incliner, 22 decliners and 3 flats
  • 1/15 - Wednesday’s advance/decline line ended with a positive close at the close of 29 incliner, 3 decliners and 3 flats
  • 1/14 - Tuesday’s advance/decline line ended with a negative close at the close of 6 incliner, 26 decliners and 3 flats
  • 1/13 - Monday’s advance/decline line ended with a negative close at the close of 11 incliner, 20 decliners and 4 flats
  • 1/10 - Friday’s advance/decline line mid-day ended with a negative close at the close of 29 incliner, 2 decliners and 4 flats
  • 1/9 - Thursday, markets were closed
  • 1/8 - Wednesday’s advance/decline line ended with a negative close at the close of 27 incliner, 27 decliners and 1 flat
  • 1/7 - Tuesday’s advance/decline line ended with a barely positive close at the close of 17 incliner, 16 decliners and 2 flats
  • 1/6 - Monday’s advance/decline line ended with a positive close at the close of 22 incliner, 12 decliners and 1 flat
  • 1/3 - Friday’s advance/decline line ended with a positive close at the close of 30 incliner, 8 decliners and 2 flats
  • 1 /2 - Thursday’s advance/decline line ended with a positive close at the close of 21 incliner, 12 decliners and 2 flats

 

As I have written “Many sector companies are engaged in cost realignment programs, which won’t be realized consequences over the next few Qs where the operating expense levels; spending on SG&A (selling, informational, and administrative) and R&D (research and development) facilitate the need to extend runways and enable expectation of clinical innovations.”

  • "I think the market's going to come back to earnings, the first couple of months of 2025, and 1st H/25 will be a shifting cell and gene therapy sector due to earnings releases... I still believe stocks will swing upward pre and them more post releases

Big Point to remember “Think about it; the biggest problem the cell and gene therapy sector it’s all to the future …  99% of them have no earnings!

  • If rates are higher for longer, that means that sector companies will continue to struggle or be unable to raise capital and therefore be subject to debt servicing firms!”
  •  2024 saw very little life IPOs (initial public offering) market and secondaries – I have seen private investments, mortgages, sell-offs, as companies deferred and struggle to gain further market access i.e., public. <Me>

What could 2025 have in store for the capital access space?

  • "You'll see a number of cell and gene therapy comandantes drive for secondaries – they’re desperate for cash, but I do think a lot of cell and gene therapy sector companies NEED to be focused on what is driving their own growth —they're focused on a lot of change BUT … that's happening in pipelines … capital expansion is second.

 

Why do I keep repeating, so investors can make the connection …

The top three (3) performing in the session:    

  • Thursday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Blueprint Medicine (BPMC) and Moderna (MRNA)
  • Wednesday: CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP), Moderna (MRNA) and Beam Therapeutics (BEAM)
  • Tuesday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Blueprint Medicine (BPMC) and Moderna (MRNA)
  • Monday, markets were closed
  • Friday: Blueprint Medicine (BPMC), Vericel (VCEL) and Mesoblast (MESO)

The worst three (3) in the session: 

  • Thursday: Vericel (VCEL), CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP) and Solid Biosciences (SLDB)
  • Wednesday: Vericel (VCEL), Blueprint Medicine (BPMC) and Mesoblast (MESO)
  • Tuesday: bluebird Bio (BLUE), Sage Therapeutics (SAGE), and Harvard Apparatus (OTCQB: HRGN)
  • Monday, markets were closed
  • Friday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE) and Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS)

 

Welcome to my world of defining the “grey’ in our universe!

  • Right up front, “I also hate to be so negative or contrarian but, this is a NO spin zone and facts are its product; I can always be WRONG but … I am mostly EARLY!”

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice. Whether information or intelligence is good, bad, or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor, and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication. Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and it’s or their securities.

I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.