September 16, 2025 4:59pm

Awaiting Fed decision, expect a 25 basis-point rate cut

I write, investors remain on the cell and gene therapy sector’s fence about “riding the skids of uncle algo and his electronic trading dwarfs”

New: Eli Lilly (LLY +$16.52 or +2.21% to $764.71) and Novo Nordisk (NVO +$1.58 or +2.84% to $57.20) <see Bottom Line>

Never leave an investor uninformed!  

I answer or qualify the sector’s equity’s movement; with an emphasis on which company is gaining or losing stride in your portfolio for the short-term

To reiterate: “my hang-up or same-old mantra, every time I see a new high; I am of the opinion to say BYE. Also, if and as the market falls back into its sideways, choppy range, sector “positions” could be back struggling and suffer.”

Thus, indexes edged slightly lower as investors took some profits ahead of a highly-awaited Fed interest rate decision.

 

Tuesday’s RegMed Investors’ (RMi) pre-open: Today’s session “rues” econs … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/14108

RMi Research note: Sanofi (SAN-PA) has frozen R&D investment decisions in the U.K. … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/14106

RegMed Investors (RMi) Research Note: Harvard Apparatus GT (OTCQB): Just another wrinkle – Q2/25’s 10-Q – liabilities exceed cash position … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/13812

 

Tuesday: The Dow closed DOWN -125.55 points or -0.27%, the S&P closed DOWN -8.52 points or -0.13% while the Nasdaq closed DOWN -14.79 points or -0.07%

  • Theme of the session, awaiting Fed rate decision
  • Traders continue to monitor developments on global trade discussions and so-called reciprocal tariffs set to take effect in November

Henry’omics: We need to more than consider the economic environment to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy

  • Retail sales rose 0.6% for the month, the same pace as the upwardly revised level for July and better than the estimate for a gain of 0.3%, according to numbers adjusted for seasonality but not inflation. Excluding autos, sales increased 0.7%, better than the 0.4% forecast and well ahead of the 0.4% pace in July. On an annual basis sale, sales were up 5%, well ahead of the CPI gain of 2.9%. Online sales increased 2% for the month while bars and restaurants saw a 0.7% increase. Gas station receipts grew by 0.5% as prices rose, while clothing saw a 1% increase as tariffs fed higher prices there as well.

Tuesday’s my 40-company covered sector’s advance/decline line opened positive with 23 incliners, 17 decliners and 0 flat ending with a positive close of 29 incliners, 9 decliners and 2 flat

Metrics:  Tuesday, the IBB was up +0.30%, the XBI was up +0.31% while the VIX was up +0.67 points or +4.27% at 16.36

 

Q3 – 1 holiday, 5 negative and 6 positive closes

  • August – 12 negative and 9 positive closes
  • July – 1 market holiday, 13 positive and 9 negative closes

 

Tuesday Closing UP (10 of 29) 

  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP +$3.35 after Monday’s +$1.58 after Friday’s +$0.37),
  • Vericel (VCEL +$1.81 after Monday’s -$0.76 after Friday’s -$1.35),
  • Beam Therapeutics (BEAM +$1.63 after Monday’s +$0.68 after Friday’s -$0.95),
  • BioNTech SE (BNTX +$1.38 after Monday’s +$1.14 after Friday’s -$7.57),
  • Lenz Therapeutics (LENZ +$1.28 after Monday’s -$1.33 after Friday’s +$0.52),
  • Moderna (MRNA +$0.96 after Monday’s +$0.37 after Friday’s -$1.88),
  • IQV Holdings (IQV +$0.84 after Monday’s -$1.25 after Friday’s -$3.47),
  • Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals (ARWR +$0.75 after Monday’s -$1.05 after Friday’s $0.00),
  • Intellia Therapeutics NTLA +$0.70 after Monday’s +$0.15 after Friday’s $0.00),
  • Prime Medicine (PRME +$0.66),

Flat (2)

  • MiMedx (MDXG)
  • Supernus Therapeutics (SUPR $0.00 after Monday’s -$1.47),

Tuesday’s Closing DOWN (9 of 9): 

  • Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX -$1.85 after Monday’s -$1.12 after Friday’s -$2.84),
  • uniQure NV (QURE -$0.36 after Monday’s -$1.65),
  • Wave Life Sciences (WVE -$0.15)
  • Brainstorm Cell Therapeutics BCLI -$0.0955),
  • Compass Therapeutics (CMPX -$0.08 after Monday’s +$0.12 after Friday’s +$0.04),
  • Solid Biosciences (SLDB -$0.08 after Monday’s +$0.10 after Friday’s +$0.08),
  • Adverum Biotechnologies (ADVM -$0.05),
  • Caribou Biosciences (CRBU -$0.03),
  • Fate Therapeutics (FATE -$0.0051),

 

The BOTTOM LINE:  More of the … WHYs …

We seem to be always waiting for … something i.ie., anything

  • As I have written, “Econs have been poison to our universe” … not as onerous as they have been, today, Tuesday
  • Retail sales were stronger than expected; retail sales rose 0.6% in August, above economist estimates for a 0.3% increase excluding autos were up 0.7%, above the 0.4% estimate.
  • Treasury yields eased a bit after a report showing stronger sales at U.S. retailers did little to change expectations for the Fed to cut interest rates several times through this year and into 2026.

Indexes sank on surprise retail sales as small caps improve…

  • The Nasdaq wavered between positive and negative ground, also after closing at a record high on Monday.
  • Small caps on the Russell 2000 trimmed losses to 0.3%.
  • Volume was lower on the Nasdaq

The Fed's policy meeting kicks off today, with an interest rate decision Wednesday afternoon.

  • A 1/4-point rate cut is considered a lock, with negligible odds of a half-point cut.

  • Will we be seeing a flight to some-sort-of-safety!

  • Don't forget that markets often have a day two reaction to Fed meetings.

 

Some good …

  • Eli Lilly (LLY) will spend $5 billion to build a manufacturing facility in Goochland County, Virginia, to boost production capacity for targeted cancer drugs and other treatments. It’s the first in a string of new planned U.S. investments by the drugmaker.  LLY announced in February that it would spend at least $27 billion to build 4 new domestic manufacturing plants, adding to $23 billion in previous investments since 2020. Eli Lilly said it will announce the 3 remaining U.S. sites this year and expects to begin making medicines at all four facilities within 5 years.
  • Novo Nordisk (NVO) promising late-stage trial results for its new Cagrilinitide obesity treatment, leading shares about 3% higher in early morning trading. Cagrilintide is a long-acting amylin analogue, a nascent form of weight loss treatment which differs existing GLP-1s. Early analysis from a P3 REDEFINE 1 trial showed the once-weekly Cagrilintide monotherapy injection helped patients reduce their weight by 11.8% on average after 68 weeks, compared to 2.3% for those on placebo.

 

September: understand the “flow” …

  • 9/16 - Tuesday closed positive with 29 positive, 9 negative and 2 flats
  • 9/15 - Monday closed negative with 17 positive, 22 negative and 1 flat

Last week:

  • 9/12 – Friday closed negative with 4 positive, 34 negative and 2 flats
  • 9/11 - Thursday closed positive with 27 positive, 11 negative and 2 flats
  • 9/10 – Wednesday closed negative with 13 positive, 26 negative and 1 flat
  • 9/9 - Tuesday closed positive with 24 positive, 15 negative and 1 flat
  • 9/8 – Monday closed negative with 10 positive, 28 negative and 2 flats

The previous week:

  • 9/5 - Friday closed positive with 35 positive, 5 negative and 0 flat
  • 9/4 – Thursday closed negative with 17 positive, 21 negative and 2 flats
  • 9/3 - Wednesday closed positive with 22 positive, 16 negative and 2 flats
  • 9/2 -Tuesday closed positive with 22 positive, 18 negative and 0 flat
  • 9/1 -Monday was a holiday

 

Interesting: President Trump suggested that companies should report earnings results on a semi-annual basis — or every 6 months — rather than every Q.

  • Also, the market has priced in a 25-basis point cut to interest rates, the 1st of this year.
  • The biggest question now is what the US central bank's rate path will be for the remainder of 2025.

 

Welcome to my world of defining the “grey’ in our universe!

  • “I hate to be so negative or contrarian but, this is a NO spin zone and truth is its product; I can always be WRONG but, I am mostly EARLY!”
  • If I have learned one thing as a former research analyst in a venture and public fund, operating executive, x-FBI, x-military officer and an adjunct (MBA) business school professor now a journalist; my life and your portfolio are largely tied to knowledge of price movements and questioning pricing targets and more.
  • I was once told by a “very” prominent figure early in my career, “write it right, keep it tight without hype and never lose the stride to guide the reader” – they were pretty simple instructions to follow!

Why do I keep repeating, so investors can make the connection …

The top three (3) performing in the session:   

  • Tuesday: CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP), Vericel (VCEL) and Beam Therapeutics (BEAM)
  • Monday: CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP), Mesoblast (MESO) and Beam Therapeutics (BEAM)
  • Friday: Solid Biosciences (SLDB), Lenz Therapeutics (LENZ) and CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP)

The worst three (3) in the session: 

  • Tuesday: Vertex (VRTX), uniQure NV (QURE) and Wave Life Sciences (WVE)
  • Monday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS) and uniQure NV (QURE)
  • Friday: BioNTech (BNTX), Vertex (VRTX) and IQV Holdings (IQV)

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice. Whether information or intelligence is good, bad, or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor, and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication. Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC):

The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and it’s or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.