October 16, 2025 4:43pm

I can’t seem to let go of this quote, “It’s always darkest before the pitch dark”

The VIX is again on the move, closing Thursday at 25.12, Wednesday at 20.41, Tuesday’s 20.36 following Monday’s 19.05 as shutdown proceeds to 16 days

Me, no Don Quixote as I continually ask, what do all these stock sources, I-Banks and brokers do for you anyway? Technological advances and the increasing availability of data have made intel both available and complex.  I see myself as a collector and my responsibility is to further educate and lead investors to interpreted data as I bridge the gap to an investment decision.

Never leave an investor uninformed!  

Sector Q3 earnings begin with IQV Holdings (IQV) on 10/28, MiMedx (MDXG), AxoGen AXGN) MiMedx (MDXG) Ionis Pharmaceuticals IONS), AxoGen AXGN) on 10/29 with Moderna (MRNA) on 11/6

RMi pre-open: Lull … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/14152

I believe earnings per share (EPS) estimates need to be revised along with the response to their share pricing declines upon their release to shake-off pipeline uncertainties

RMi Research Note: Harvard Apparatus GT (OTCQB): Who is wasting lipstick on this pig? … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/13812

 

Thursday: The Dow closed DOWN -301.07 points or -0.65%, the S&P closed DOWN -41.99 points or -0.63% while the Nasdaq closed DOWN -107.542 points or -0.47%

  • Theme of the session: volatility and shutdown are still an issue, although encouraged by strong earnings from major banks

Henry’omics: We need to consider the macro-economic environment to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy

  • Factory activity as reported by Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index tumbled in October; diving 36 points to a reading of -12.8, its worst showing since April, economists had been looking for 9.5.  New shipments index fell 20.1 points to 6.0. The prices paid index increased 2.4 points while the employee measure was off 1 point but still positive at 4.6. At the same time, expectations for the business environment 6-months from now actually improved, rising nearly 5 points to 36.2.

Thursday’s (my) 40-company covered sector’s advance/decline line opened positive with 31 incliners, 8 decliners and 1 flat ending with a negative close of 22 incliners, 17 decliners and 1 flat

Metrics:  Thursday, the RUT was down -52.74 points or -2.09%, the IBB was up +0.03 points or +0.02%, the XLV was down -0.23 points or -0.16%, the XBI was down -0.46 points or -0.42% while the VIX was down -0.23 points or -0.16% at 25.12

 

Q4 –1 neutral, 7 positive and 4 negative closes

Q3 – September - 1 holiday, 9 negative and 12 positive closes; August - 12 negative and 9 positive closes; July - 1 market holiday, 13 positive and 9 negative closes

 

Thursday Closing UP (10 of 17) 

  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY +$10.80),
  • IQV Holdings (IQV +$2.67 after Wednesday -$1.64, Tuesday’s +$0.87 and Monday +$5.60),
  • Vericel (VCEL +$1.16 after Wednesday -$1.05, Tuesday’s +$1.15 and Monday +$1.64),
  • Sarepta Therapeutics (SRPT +$1.14),
  • Arrowhead Pharma (ARWR +$0.78 after Wednesday +$2.23, Tuesday -$0.29 and Monday’s +$0.84),
  • BioNTech (BNTX +$0.74 after Wednesday +$1.73),
  • Vertex (VRTX +$0.71 after Wednesday’s -$4.32, Tuesday’s +$4.85 and Monday +$0.42),
  • Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS +$0.68),
  • AxoGen (AXGN +$0.62),
  • Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE +$0.54)

Flat (1)

  • Brainstorm Cell Therapeutics (BCLI)

Thursday’s Closing DOWN (10 of 22): 

  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP -$7.39 after Wednesday’s +$2.44, Tuesday +$1.09 and Monday -$4.81),
  • uniQure NV (QURE -$2.84 after Wednesday’s +$3.87, Tuesday -$3.06 and Monday’s +$0.57),
  • Beam Therapeutics (BEAM -$1.40 after Wednesday’s +$1.77),
  • Lenz Therapeutics (LENZ -$1.40 after Wednesday’s +$3.05),
  • BioLife Solutions (BLFS -$1.02 after Wednesday’s +$1.09 and Tuesday +$0.24),
  • Intellia Therapeutics NTLA -$1.02 after Wednesday’s +$2.03),
  • Moderna (MRNA -$0.58 after Wednesday’s +$1.47 and Tuesday -$0.49),
  • Prime Medicine (PRME -$0.57),
  • Capricor Therapeutics (CAPR -$0.53 after Wednesday’s -$0.01, Tuesday’s -$0.02 and Monday’s -$0.37),
  • Compass Therapeutics (CMPX -$0.25),

 

The Bottom Line: More of the … WHYs …

With and in a probabilistic approach: “Risk” is binary; in my view driven by volatility and algorithms!

The decline in stocks coincided with a jump in the Cboe Volatility Index and moves lower in bond yields and the U.S. dollar. The Vix spiked to its highest since May, while the 10-year Treasury yield fell and broke below 4%. The U.S. dollar index lost 0.4% and hit its lows of the session midday. <CNBC>

The shutdown continues for a 3rd week; with economic data releases from federal agencies, giving traders less information at a time when concerns about the labor market, the effect of tariffs on consumers, high interest rates and historically elevated market valuations.

As the leading voice of cell and gene therapy investors; I am NOT always a doom and gloom analyst/journalist but a man who has been “there” (BUY, SELL, VC and multiple operating roles) with the gray hair and a readership following with real numbers to prove it!

Earnings are still the coming highlights of the weeks ahead: Meeting earnings expectation and/or missing consensus will deem share pricing outcomes.

I think it's important to now take a step back, focus on fundamentals, advancing clinical catalysts, “runways” as well as sector company’s capacity/ability to finance

The C&GT sector is still undergoing a "test” of how much risk investors were willing to take?

What more can one do, versus watching what happens?

October: understand the “flow” …

  • 10/16 - Thursday closed negative with 17 positive, 22 negative and 1 flat
  • 10/15 - Wednesday closed positive with 31 positive, 9 negative and 1 flat
  • 10/14 - Tuesday closed positive with 28 positive, 12 negative and 0 flat
  • 10/13 - Monday closed neutral with 20 positive, 20 negative and 0 flat

Last week:

  • 10/10 – Friday closed negative with 3 positive, 37 negative and 0 flat
  • 10/9 - Thursday closed positive with 21 positive, 19 negative and 0 flat
  • 10/8 – Wednesday closed positive with 29 positive, 10 negative and 1 flat
  • 10/7 – Tuesday closed negative with 15 positive, 25 negative and 0 flat
  • 10/6 – Monday closed negative with 17 positive, 22 negative and 1 flat

The previous week:

  • 10/3 – Friday closed positive with 27 positive, 10 negative and 3 flats
  • 10/2 - Thursday closed positive with 26 positive, 13 negative and 1 flat
  • 10/1 – Wednesday closed positive with 26 positive, 14 negative and 0 flat

 

Welcome to my world of defining the “grey’ in our universe!

  • I am more frequently right than consequentially wrong; if I wanted to be liked, I wouldn’t have been an analyst/journalist.
  • “I hate to be so negative or contrarian but, this is a NO spin zone and truth is its product; I can always be WRONG but, I am mostly EARLY!”

 

Why do I keep repeating, framed in a different para, so investors can make the connection

The top three (3) performing in the session:   

  • Thursday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), IQV Holdings (IQV) and Vericel (VCEL)
  • Wednesday: uniQure NV (QURE), Lenz Therapeutics (LENZ) and CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP)
  • Tuesday: Vertex (VRTX), Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) and Vericel (VCEL)
  • Monday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), IQV Holdings (IQV) and Vericel (VCEL)

The worst three (3) in the session:

  • Thursday: CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP), uniQure NV (QURE) and Beam therapeutics (BEAM)
  • Wednesday: Vertex (VRTX), IQV Holdings (IQV) and Vericel (VCEL)
  • Tuesday: uniQure NV (QURE), Sarepta Therapeutics (SRPT) and Moderna (MRNA)
  • Monday: CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP), Beam Therapeutics (BEAM) and Adverum Biotechnologies (ADVM)

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice. Whether information or intelligence is good, bad, or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor, and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication. Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC):

The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and it’s or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.