October 24, 2025 4:50pm

A REAL catalyst for C&GT sector, Adverum Biotechnologies (ADVM -$0.11 or -2.63% to $4.07) an eye gene therapy to be acquired for +$12.47 a share by Eli Lilly (LLY) – surprising share pricing response?

24-day’s shutdown and 4th week counting

RMi collects, interprets and disseminates cell and gene therapy sector (C&GT) news, intel and share pricing data to bridge the gap to an investment decision

Never leave an investor uninformed! 

TGIF

The Cboe Volatility Index fell Friday to 16.33 after Thursday’s 17.27, Wednesday’s 18.69, Tuesday’s 18.03, Monday’s 18.48 as compared to last Friday’s 20.83 (having seen 28 at one point on Friday)

Friday’s RMi pre-open: CPI comes in lower at 3% … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/14164

RMi Note: Adverum Biotechnologies (ADVM) to be acquired for +$12.47 a share by Eli Lilly (LLY) … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/14165

The present and future value of RegMed Investors (RMi) analysis sheds light on the cell and gene therapy sector’s “current” acrobatics

 

 

Friday: The Dow closed UP +472.51 points or +1.01%, the S&P closed UP +53.29 points or +0.79% while the Nasdaq closed UP +263.069 points or +1.15%

  • Theme of the session: cooled CPI data although the annual rate did represent a slight uptick from the prior month

Henry’omics: We need to undrstand the macro-economic environment to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy

  • The September consumer price index report — which was delayed because of the U.S. government shutdown — rose 0.3% on the month, bringing the annual inflation rate to 3%, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. That’s just below the 0.4% and 3.1% economists expected. When excluding food and energy, core CPI came in at 0.2% last month and 3% on a 12-month basis, also lighter than the forecasts for 0.3% and 3.1%, respectively.
  • University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey cooled slightly as October; sentiment reading posted a 53.6 reading, down 2.7% from September and below the estimate for 54.9. On a year-over-year basis, the level tumbled 24%. Inflation expectations at the 1-year horizon edged down to 4.6%, the lowest reading since July, while the 5-year outlook climbed to 3.9%, the highest since June.

Friday’s (my) 40-company covered sector’s advance/decline line opened positive with 34 incliners, 5 decliners and 1 flat ending with a positive close of 25 incliners, 13 decliners and 2 flats

Metrics:  Friday …

  • The RUT was up +30.81 points or +1.24%,
  • The IBB was up +0.58 points or +0.38%,
  • The XLV was up +0.01 points or +0.01%,
  • The XBI was up +0.82 points or +0.76% … while
  • The VIX was down -0.97 points or -5.60% at 16.33

 

Q4 – 1 neutral, 9 positive and 8 negative closes

Q3 – September - 1 holiday, 9 negative and 12 positive closes; August - 12 negative and 9 positive closes; July - 1 market holiday, 13 positive and 9 negative closes

 

Friday Closing UP (10 of 25)

  • uniQure NV (QURE +$1.68 after Thursday’s -$0.58, Wednesday’s -$3.16, Tuesday’s -$0.85 and Monday’s +$5.92),
  • Sarepta Therapeutics (SRPT +$0.92 after Thursday’s -$0.58, Wednesday’s -$0.88 and Tuesday’s +$0.30),
  • BioNTech (BNTX +$0.91 after Thursday’s -$1.48),
  • Supernus Therapeutics (SUPN +$0.81 after Thursday’s +$1.35),
  • Arrowhead Pharma (ARWR +$0.65 after Thursday’s -$0.28),
  • IQV Holdings (IQV +$0.62 after Thursday’s +$1.99),
  • Lenz Therapeutics (LENZ +$0.59 after Thursday’s -$1.32, Wednesday’s -$0.86, Tuesday’s -$2.75 and Monday’s -$1.95),
  • Moderna (MRNA +$0.49 after Thursday’s -$0.60),
  • Regenxbio (RGNX +$0.45 after Thursday’s +$0.39, Wednesday’s -$0.90 after Tuesday’s +$0.45),
  • Entrata Therapeutics (TRDA +$0.43),

Flat (2)

  • Brainstorm Cell Therapeutics (BCLI)
  • Harvard Apparatus RT (OTCQB: HRGN)

Friday’s Closing DOWN (10 of 13):

  • Vertex (VRTX +$1.24 after Thursday’s -$3.81 after Wednesday’s -$0.17 after Tuesday’s +$7.17 and Monday’s +$2.29),
  • Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS -$0.64),
  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY-$0.57 after Thursday’s -$0.90 after Wednesday’s -$9.10 after Tuesday’s -$7.22 and Monday’s +$9.55),
  • Mesoblast (MESO -$0.29),
  • Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA -$0.29 after Thursday’s +$1.31 after Wednesday’s -$2.39 after Tuesday’s -$1.01 and Monday’s +$3.23),
  • Beam Therapeutics (BEAM -$0.24 after Thursday’s +$0.52, Wednesday’s -$2.21 after Tuesday’s -$0.73 and Monday’s +$4.64),
  • Adverum Biotechnologies (ADVM +$0.11)
  • Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE -$0.10 after Thursday’s +$0.69 and Wednesday’s -$1.05),
  • Generation bio (GBIO -$0.07),
  • Prime Medicine (PRME -$0.05 after Thursday’s +$0.27)

 

The Bottom Line: More of the … WHYs

The 3 major U.S. indexes ended the previous session higher, driven by inflows into tech stocks and bullish sentiment heading into the heat of Q3 earnings season.

With Thursday’s moves erasing Wednesday’s losses, the indexes notch a winning week, as they’re tracking for a rise of roughly 2% in the period.

  • after the Friday CPI report
  • as cooler-than-estimated inflation reinforced trader conviction on Fed “possible” interest-rate cuts.
  • the S&P 500 hitting all-time highs on bets policy easing will power non-sector earnings.
  • interest-rate swaps signaled traders have all but fully priced in a quarter-point rate cut at the Fed’s meeting next week, followed by another reduction in December.
  • while the reaction in Treasuries was more subdued, money markets continued to price in a high likelihood of 2 Fed reductions before the year is over. <Bloomberg>

 

A good quote, ““Much like a Sherlock Holmes’ story, inflation is the dog that didn’t bark. So many people have been expecting a sharp increase in inflation and have positioned bearishly as a result, but the market is likely to keep squeezing the shorts until they realize that the economy – and Corporate America – is more resilient than many expected.” <Chris Zaccarelli at Northlight Asset Management>

 

Sector equity valuations have moved higher after all the alternating weekly closes and there are STILL risks within the sector.

Although I see an interruption coming … from earnings expectation and consensus always considering earnings season LPS (loss-per-share).

“I also hate to be so negative or contrarian but, this is a NO spin zone and truth is its product; I can always be WRONG but, I am mostly EARLY!”

 

The US government shutdown persists 24 days after 12 Senate votes as Democrats continue to reject any compromize ... having completed its 4th week (depends how one counts).

Think about it; one of the biggest problems with the cell and gene therapy sector’s share pricing is …  99% of them have no earnings! Revenue from collaborations and runways have become indications of sustainability.

  • I believe earnings per share (EPS) estimates need to be revised along with the response to their share pricing declines upon their release to shake-off pipeline uncertainties
  • Meeting earnings expectation and/or missing consensus will deem share pricing outcomes
  • Sector Q3 earnings begin with IQV Holdings (IQV) on 10/28, MiMedx (MDXG), AxoGen AXGN) MiMedx (MDXG) Ionis Pharmaceuticals IONS), AxoGen AXGN) on 10/29 with Supernus Therapeutics (SUPN) on 11/4 followed by Moderna (MRNA) and Vericel (VCEL) on 11/6
  • Post earnings, I think it's important to focus on fundamentals, advancing clinical catalysts, “runways” and sector company’s capacity/ability to finance

As the leading voice of cell and gene therapy investors; I am NOT always a doom and gloom analyst/journalist but a man who has been “there” (BUY, SELL, VC and multiple operating roles) with the gray hair and a readership following with real numbers to prove it!

 

October: understand the “flow” …

This week:

  • 10/24 - Friday closed positive with 25 positive, 13 negative and 2 flats
  • 10/23 – Thursday closed negative with 15 negative, 22 negative and 3 flats
  • 10/22 – Wednesday closed negative with 4 positive, 34 negative and 2 flat
  • 10/21 - Tuesday closed negative with 17 positive, 23 negative and 0 flat
  • 10/20 - Monday closed positive with 34 positive, 4 negative and 2 flats

Last week:

  • 10/17 – Friday closed negative with 11 positive, 28 negative and 1 flat
  • 10/16 - Thursday closed negative with 17 positive, 22 negative and 1 flat
  • 10/15 - Wednesday closed positive with 31 positive, 9 negative and 1 flat
  • 10/14 - Tuesday closed positive with 28 positive, 12 negative and 0 flat
  • 10/13 - Monday closed neutral with 20 positive, 20 negative and 0 flat

 

Welcome to my world of defining the “grey’ in our universe!

  • I am more frequently right than consequentially wrong; if I wanted to be liked, I wouldn’t have been an analyst/journalist.
  • “I hate to be so negative or contrarian but, this is a NO spin zone and truth is its product; I can always be WRONG but, I am mostly EARLY!”

 

Why do I keep repeating, framed in a different para, so investors can make the connection

The top three (3) performing in the session:   

  • Friday: uniQure NV (QURE), Sarepta Therapeutics (SRPT) and BioNTech (BNTX)
  • Thursday: IQV Holdings (IQV), Supernus Therapeutics (SUPN) and Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA)
  • Wednesday: AxoGen (AXGN), Compass Therapeutics (CMPX) and Sangamo Therapeutics (SGMO)
  • Tuesday: Vertex (VRTX), IQV Holdings (IQV) and Mesoblast (MESO)
  • Monday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), IQV Holdings (IQV) and uniQure NV (QURE)

The worst three (3) in the session:

  • Friday: Vertex (VRTX), Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS) and Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY),
  • Thursday: Vertex (VRTX), BioNTech (BNTX) and Lenz Therapeutics (LENZ)
  • Wednesday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP) and uniQure NV (QURE)
  • Tuesday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Lenz Therapeutics (LENZ) and Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS)
  • Monday: Lenz Therapeutics (LENZ), Compass Therapeutics (CMPX) and Cellectis SA (CLLS)

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice. Whether information or intelligence is good, bad, or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor, and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication. Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC):

The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and it’s or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.