RegMed Investors’ (RMi) closing bell: many see volatility as a measure of risk

January 29, 2019 5:21pm

Its immediate effect creates uncertainty of share pricing

The real risk is the loss of value when sentiment nose-dives

Pre-open Indication: 3 HITs and 0 MISS

Out and about: OncoCyte (OCX: NYSE American +$4.09 or +224.73%) rally carries Asterias Biosciences (NYSEMKT: AST +$0.28 or +39.25%) upward which is planning to merge with BioTime (NYSEMKT: BTX +$0.53 or +58.82%) the owner of a +37.2% stake (14.71 M shares) in OCX after announcing positive results on its lung cancer liquid biopsy test.  Global Blood Therapeutics (GBT jumped +$0.22 to $44.90 after yesterday’s -$2.18) as it announced (post the session’s close) that data from its P1/2 study of voxelotor in patients with sickle cell disease (SCD) was published online in Blood, a peer-reviewed publication of the American Society of Hematology.

RegMed Investors’ provides the realities of volatility and share pricing in the sector.   That’s why the term “quantamental,” a blend of the two styles, may soon become common parlance among investors and traders.

Reiterating, the question is whether investors should be fearful, especially in a market that has so many readily visible hot spots to seemingly burst into flames in a follow-on session!

Daily analytics:

• The Dow closed up +51.74 points or +0.21% to 24,579.96
• The S&P closed down -3.85 points or -0.15% to 2,640.00
• The NASDAQ was down -57.40 points or -0.81% to 7,028.29

The advance/decline line scenario of 45 covered companies:  back and forth ...

• The open was negative with the A/DL to 16/27 and 2 flat;
• The first hour popped positive with an A/DL of 25/18 and 3 flat;
• The second hour slipped negative with an A/DL of 19/22 and 4 flats;
• The mid-day stayed negative with an A/DL of 17/25 and 3 flats;
• The close was neutral with an A/DL of 21/21 and 3 flats;

Tonight’s percentage (%) indicators: 

• Ranged of the 21 upside was +0.02% (RGNX) to +55.46% (BTX) while the 21 downside ranged from -0.21% (OSIR) to -7.14% (ATHX) with 3 flat close (MDXG, PSTI and RENE.L).

Volume stat:  extremely low

• 4 out of the 21 upside had higher (than the 3 month average) volume
• 4 out of the 21 downside experienced greater volume (than the 3 month average) volume

Henry’omics:

From a macro market view, “This is the busiest week of the current earnings season. When the dust settles, more than 100 companies in the S&P 500 will have posted their quarterly results. Through Tuesday morning, more than 70% of the companies that have reported have beaten analyst expectations < FactSet>.

Market focus was also largely attuned to global trade developments, after prospects for a long-awaited U.S.-China trade deal were dealt another setback. It comes after Washington leveled sweeping charges against Beijing's telecom giant Huawei <CNBC>.

Investors also looked ahead to a monetary policy decision from the Federal Reserve. Market expectations for a rate hike being announced Wednesday afternoon are zero < CME Group's FedWatch>.

Sector equities closed neutral after a back and forth session as outlined in the Advance/Decline Lines (A/DL).

Weakness shone brightly in bluebird bio (BLUE -$2.80 after yesterday’s -$3.53), IONS (-$2.41), FIXX (-$1.010, RARE (-$0.61) and NTLA (-$0.47).

Athersys (ATHX -$0.13) takes a hit on the capacity of MultiStem ™. The Helios option – unrealized to date is the “Sword of Damocles” hanging over its share pricing – they DON’T have many believers!

Applied Genetic Technologies (AGTC -$0.15) just can’t get away from the share busting bulldozed of NO clinical data, past slow enrollments in clinical trials and the loss of the Biogen (BIIB) collaboration.

Another slowdown in the CRISPR peer group: CRSP (-$0.20 or -0.64%). EDIT (-$0.37 or -1.79%) and NTLA (-$0.47 or -3.49%) after yesterday’s “shoot down”

Popping in the session was: Voyager Therapeutics (VYGR +$3.08) as I highlighted its collaboration in the a.m. post, Sage Therapeutics (SAGE +$2.55 after yesterday’s -$2.94), Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY +$2.46 after yesterday’s -$6.39), Spark Therapeutics (ONCE +$1.370 and BioMarin Pharmaceuticals (BMRN +$0.99 after yesterday’s -$2.25)

Global Blood Therapeutics (GBT jumped +$0.22 to $44.90 after yesterday’s-$2.18) as it announced (post the session’s close) that data from its P1/2 study of voxelotor in patients with sickle cell disease (SCD) were published online in Blood, a peer-reviewed publication of the American Society of Hematology. Voxelotor is being developed as a potentially disease-modifying therapy for SCD. GBT intends to submit a New Drug Application (NDA) for voxelotor under an accelerated approval pathway to the U.S. FDA later this year. “The findings from the P1/2 study and the open-label extension played an important role in our development of voxelotor. We believe voxelotor has the potential to become a standard-of-care therapy in SCD, as evidenced by its ability to reduce anemia, hemolysis and sickling,” said Ted W. Love, M.D., president and CEO of GBT. “Additionally, I’m pleased that we have reached agreement with the FDA on both the accelerated approval pathway for voxelotor and for transcranial doppler (TCD) flow velocity as an acceptable primary endpoint in a post-approval confirmatory study to demonstrate stroke risk reduction.

The pre-open post stated, “sector risks vary resulting from low volume and steep declines as we climb a wall of worry, confidence and conviction are vulnerable; do we play “pick-up-stocks” – I’m leery?”

The mid-day post stated, “bottoms bounce; a few long jumpers as losers fall as the IBB springs back and forth (-0.01%) as the NASDAQ dives (-0.60%). The sector is what it is; until it isn’t and even then, what does it seem to be?”

Pre-open indications: 3 HITs and 0 MISS

• CRISPRS Therapeutics (CRSP) closed down -$0.20 – hit;
• Editas Medicine (EDIT) closed down -$0.37 – hit;
• Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA) closed down -$0.47 – hit;

Daily volume metrics: the VIX was up +1.38%

… Greatest volume (descending) to the downside:  

• HSGX, VSTM, EDIT, ATHX and XON

… Upside volume was weighted to:

• BTX, VYGR, AST, SGMO and ALNY

… The week’s history lesson, the iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) closed:

• Tuesday was up +0.20% after NOT indicating;
• Monday was down -1.99% after NOT indicating;
• Friday was up +1.53% after indicating a positive +0.33% in the pre-open;
• Thursday was down -0.02% after NOT indicating;
• Wednesday was down -0.84% after indicating a negative -0.17% in the pre-open and -1.10% at the mid-day;
• Last Tuesday was down -1.58% after NOT indicating in the pre-open

January sessions:

Tuesday closed NEUTRAL with 21 decliners, 21 advancers and 3 flat;

Monday closed NEGATIVE with 37 decliners, 6 advancers and 2 flat;

Friday closed POSITIVE with 32 decliners, 10 advancers and 3 flat;

Thursday closed POSITIVE with 31 decliners, 12 advancers and 2 flat;

Wednesday closed NEGATIVE with 36 decliners, 8 advancers and 1 flat;

Tuesday closed NEGATIVE with 36 decliners, 7 advancers and 2 flats;

Monday was a market holiday;

Friday closed POSITIVE with 13 decliners, 30 advancers and 2 flats;

Thursday closed NEGATIVE with 22 decliners, 20 advancers and 3 flat;

Wednesday closed POSITIVE with 20 decliners, 23 advancers and 2 flat;

Tuesday closed POSITIVE with 11 decliners, 33 advancers and 1 flat;

Monday closed NEGATIVE with 32 decliners, 10 advancers and 3 flat;

Friday closed NEGATIVE with 23 decliners, 20 advancers and 2 flat;

Thursday closed POSITIVE with 19 decliners, 24 advancers and 2 flat;

Wednesday closed POSITIVE with 18 decliners, 26 advancers and 1 flat;

Tuesday closed POSITIVE with 18 decliners, 26 advancers and 1 flat;

Monday closed POSITIVE with 7 decliners, 38 advancers and 0 flats;

Friday closed POSITIVE with 5 decliners, 40 advancers and 0 flats;

Thursday closed NEGATIVE with 32 decliners, 11 advancers and 2 flats;

Wednesday (1/3/19) closed POSITIVE with 11 decliners, 34 advancers and 0 flats;

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.