October 8, 2021 5:16pm

The knowns: volatility, lack luster sentiment, low volume = more uncertainty regarding inflation and rising rates as investors prepare for Q3 sector earnings

Pre-open indication results: 5 Hits and 2 MISS

Who else is tracking a broad representative index of cell and gene therapy equities – the facts are supported by real numbers?

My version of the session’s “indications” is about what you need to know; it’s what did happen after the opening, mid-day and to the close

A fact and numbers-based narrative

The week in review …

The Dow closed DOWN -8.69 points (-0.03%); the S&P closed DOWN -8.42 points (-0.19%) while the Nasdaq closed DOWN -74.48 points (-0.51%)

 

Henry’omics:

Indexes ended down Friday yet, they all ended in the green for the week.

Today’s jobs number has thrown markets and the sector expectations into the toilet as indexes contribute to the fall.

A bleaker labor picture could stall the Federal Reserve, as it prepares to slow its $120 billion-per-month bond-buying program. <CNBC>

Friday's jobs report offers fresh evidence that Americans are falling behind under President Biden. It shows meager job creation far below expectations and a falling labor force participation rate. It also reveals average wages grew slower than inflation, as measured by the consumer price index, meaning Americans' real wages are falling. Standards of living are decreasing as inflation intensifies.

 

Interesting Note: Moderna (MRNA) stock took a tumble as Iceland joined several Scandinavian countries in halting the use of its vaccine in young people. Pfizer (PFE) stock fell 0.7%, while BioNTech (BNTX) stock slipped 0.3%. Finland's national health authority is pausing use of MRNA's vaccine for all males age 30 or younger. They will be offered the vaccine made by Pfizer (PFE) and BioNTech (BNTX) instead.

 

Economic data Docket: Nonfarm payrolls increased by 194,000 workers in September as the unemployment rate fell to 4.8%, the Labor Department said Friday. Economists surveyed by Refinitiv were expecting the addition of 500,000 new jobs and the unemployment rate to slip to 5.1%.  The jobs gains in August were revised up to 366,000 from 235,000.

  • On the positive side, the unemployment rate itself fell to a much lower point than economists forecast. At 4.8%, that’s the same level seen in late 2016.

 

RegMed/Stem/Cell and Gene therapy’s 35 covered equities’ Advance/Decline (A/D) lines: what’s happening …

  • Friday opened negative at 11/20, 3 flats and 1 acquired, stayed negative at the mid-day at 8/25, 1 flat and 1 acquired, ending with a negative close of 7/24, 3 flats and 1 acquired;
  • Thursday opened positive at 28/5, 1 flat and 1 acquired, stayed positive at the mid-day at 28/5, 1 flat and 1 acquired, ending with a positive close of 22/12 and 1 acquired;
  • Wednesday opened negative at 10/23, 1 flat and 1 acquired, stayed negative at the mid-day at 13/20, 1 flat and 1 acquired, ending with a negative close of 9/23, 2 flats and 1 acquired;
  • Tuesday opened positive at 24/9 and 1 acquired, flipped negative at the mid-day at 20/13, 1 flat and 1 acquired, 2:30 p.m. turned positive to 17/16, 1 flat and 1 acquired, ending barely positive close of 17/16, 1 flat and 1 acquired;
  • Monday opened negative at 4/27, 3 flats and 1 acquired, stayed negative at the mid-day at 6/27, 1 flat and 1 acquired, ending with a negative close of 5/28, 1 flat and 1 acquired;

 

RegMed Investors’ (RMi) pre-open: “caution and uncertainty … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/12130   

Pre-open indication results: 5 Hits: < Biostage (BSTG $0.00), CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP -$4.36), Editas Medicine (EDIT -$3.42), Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA -$14.07), Global Blood Therapeutics (GBT +$1.79), and 2 MISS< Fate Therapeutics (FATE -$1.40), Sage Therapeutics (SAGE -$0.25)>  

 

Key Metric - volume:

  • Sector volume was LOW with 2 of the 7-upside having higher than the 3-month average volume with INCREASED volume of 4 of 24-downside having higher than the 3-month average volume;

Largest upside volume:

  • Voyager Therapeutics (VYGR +$1.71 – 52.43 m shares traded),

Largest downside volume:

  • Editas Medicine (EDIT -$3.42 -3.63 M shares traded),
  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP -$4.36 – 3.422 m shares traded),
  • Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA -$14.07 – 2.82 m shares traded),
  • Cellectis SA (CLLS -$2.91 – 2.159 m shares traded)

 

The Biostage (BSTG) Chronicles: “For years, U.S. regulators said they never got the transparency they needed into the auditing on Chinese companies because https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/12110

  • The “pump/promote” wasn’t working…

Friday closed $0.00 with 32 shares traded after Thursday closed up +$0.19 with 619 shares traded after Wednesday closed down -$0.02 with 951 shares traded, Tuesday closed down -$0.59 with 957 shares traded following Monday closed up +$0.58 with 2,189 shares traded following an a.m. dive of -$0.46 with 2,018 shares traded.

  • A company with NO clinical trial, a one (1) and a half year approved IND with No clinical trial initiation, four (4) employees and NO CRO <clinical research organization> hired – so what’s there to invest in – the “Sword of Damocles” hanging over its recent insurance company rejection of legal expense/costs of a terminal death suit against the company?

 

There are clear winners and losers

Jumping with share pricing momentum (7 of 7):

  • ReNeuron (RENE.L +$2.30 after Thursday’s +$1.50 and Wednesday’s +$1.00)
  • Global Blood Therapeutics (GBT +$1.79 after Thursday’s +$2.40, Wednesday’s -$0.40 and Tuesday’s -$0.31),
  • Voyager Therapeutics (VYGR +$1.71 after Thursday’s -$0.03, Wednesday’s +$1.60 and Tuesday’s -$0.09),
  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY +$0.79 after Thursday’s +$1.83, Wednesday’s +$2.73, Tuesday’s +$3.33 and Monday’s +$2.34)
  • Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS +$0.32 after Thursday’s +$0.43, Wednesday’s +$0.55, Tuesday’s +$0.46 and Monday’s -$1.24),
  • bluebird bio (BLUE +$0.22 after Thursday’s +$0.40 and Wednesday’s +$0.21),
  • Mesoblast (MESO +$0.02)

Hammered in today’s market (10 of 24):

  • Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA -$14.07 after Thursday’s +$5.09),
  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP -$4.36 after Thursday’s +$1.00 and Wednesday’s -$0.50),
  • Ultragenyx (RARE -$3.81 after Thursday’s -$1.04, Wednesday’s -$0.63, Tuesday’s +$2.14 and Monday’s -$2.82),
  • Editas Medicine (EDIT -$3.42 after Thursday’s +$1.49, Wednesday’s -$0.69, Tuesday’s +$0.94 and Monday’s -$2.62)
  • Cellectis SA (CLLS -$2.91),
  • BioLife Solutions (BLFS -$2.42 after Thursday’s +$1.00, Wednesday’s -$0.34, Tuesday’s -$0.42 and Monday’s -$2.02)
  • Fate Therapeutics (FATE -$1.40 after Thursday’s -$0.79, Wednesday’s -$0.18, Tuesday’s +$0.89 and Monday’s -$3.09)
  • AxoGen (AXGN -$1.00),
  • Vericel (VCEL -$0.98 after Thursday’s +$1.26, Wednesday’s +$0.10, Tuesday’s +$1.85 and Monday’s -$1.34)
  • Regenxbio (RGNX -$0.82 after Thursday’s -$0.01, Wednesday’s +$1.60, Tuesday’s -$1.43 and Monday’s -$7.95),

Closing Flat:

  • 3 – Biostage (BSTG), Caladrius Biosciences (CLBS), Verastem VSTM) and 1 - Stemline Therapeutics (STML) – acquired

 

Stats:

The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:

  • Friday the IBB closed down -0.76% and XBI closed down -0.38%
  • Thursday the IBB closed up +1.32% and XBI closed up +1.32%
  • Wednesday the IBB closed down -1.20% and XBI closed down -1.06%
  • Tuesday the IBB closed up +0.07% and XBI closed up +0.31%
  • Monday, the IBB closed down -2.04% and XBI closed down -2.95%

The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:

  • Friday was down -0.77 points or -3.94% at 18.77
  • Thursday was down -1.46 points or -6.95% at 19.54
  • Wednesday was down -0.30 points or -1.41% at 21.00
  • Tuesday was down -1.66 points or -7.23% at 21.30
  • Monday was up +1.81 points or +8.56% at 22.96

 

October, the first month of Q3/21:

Friday closed negative with 7 advancers, 24 decliners, 3 flats and 1 acquired

Thursday closed positive with 22 advancers, 12 decliners and 1 acquired

Wednesday closed negative with 9 advancers, 23 decliners, 2 flats and 1 acquired

Tuesday closed positive with 17 advancers, 16 decliners, 1 flat and 1 acquired

Monday (10/4) closed negative with 5 advancers, 28 decliners, 1 flat and 1 acquired

Friday (10/1) closed negative with 4 advancers, 28 decliners, 2 flats and 1 acquired

 

The week in review:

Monday:

RegMed Investors’ (RMi) pre-open: October’s first full trading week looks weak … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/12122

RegMed Investors’ (RMi) closing bell: sector was under heavy pressure, with a muddy path forward for sector equities … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/12123

 

Tuesday:

RegMed Investors’ (RMi) pre-open: mini bounce after two (2) October trounces … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/12124

RegMed Investors’ (RMi) closing bell: a barely upside turnaround … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/12125

 

Wednesday:

RegMed Investors’ (RMi) pre-open: follow-through, a joke … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/12126

RegMed Investors’ (RMi) closing bell: stem, cell and gene therapy sector stumbles … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/12127

 

Thursday:

RegMed Investors’ (RMi) pre-open: buy, sell and switch ticker conditions … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/12128

RegMed Investors’ (RMi) closing bell: the oversold were ripe to be picked … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/12129

 

Friday:

RegMed Investors’ (RMi) pre-open: caution and uncertainty … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/12130

 

 

The BOTTOM LINE: As I had stated, “There is still a lot of risk out-there and sentiment is as lonely as volatility.”

The sector wasn’t alone, small caps were falling once again, and sold off into the close. The Russell 2000 dropped 0.8%.

While reiterating, “the stem, cell and gene therapy sector is still seen as vulnerable to extreme moves in either direction, overbought and oversold categories as risk stimulates the susceptibility!”

I’m STILL a “beware or the cautious man” whose focus has always been “warning analysis” … earnings’ season is NOT over … my advice, trim and skim any new highs if one can!”

WHY do I keep analyzing Biostage (BSTG): When one sees an inextricable wrong and morally repulsive scenario; it takes courage, resolve and patience to stay the course of asking the questions without response!

Who is defining the metrics for investors and keeping you notified of the sector and market fluctuations?  What I provide is a trusted source of share pricing intelligence – it’s more than opinion, I deal in the facts and numbers that back them up.

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.

Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.