November 20, 2021 11:18am

How many times am I right as Friday evolves to be another weekly colossus downslide    

Pre-open indication results: 8 HITs, 1 MISS

The Biostage (BSTG) Chronicles: Friday closed down -$0.39 with 8,625 shares traded after Thursday closed flat with 17 shares traded. When are they going to admit they are a failing equity and do something about the current management?

Who else is tracking a broad representative of cell and gene therapy equities – with facts supported by real numbers?

If I have learned one thing as a former research analyst, venture and public markets investor to a journalist and pundit; it is that your life and your bank account are largely tied to your questioning of price targets.

Week in review …

The Dow closed DOWN -268.97points (-0.75%); the S&P closed DOWN -6.58 points (-0.14%) while the Nasdaq closed UP +63.73 points (+0.40%)

 

Henry’omics:

Indexes struggled on Friday as concerns over a resurgence of Covid-19 weighed on global markets.

  • The S&P 500 ended the week 0.3% higher, the Dow fell 1.3% for the week, while the Nasdaq got a jumped +1.2%.

I believe among the reason for the mixed Friday and declines are, “The House of Representatives voted Friday to pass President Biden’s $1.7 trillion social safety net bill, sending it to the Senate, where it is likely to face an uphill battle in the coming weeks.”

Indexes are also sending mixed messages, with President Biden about to make his Fed chief pick.

  • Will Biden stick with Fed chief Powell, or go with someone else, such as Fed Gov. Lael Brainard?
  • Stock and bond markets clearly favor Powell, whose current term as Fed chairman ends early next year.
  • Fed chief Powell is a known quantity, and gets high marks on Wall Street for his swift action during the coronavirus crash. Now, the Fed is just starting to scale back asset purchases with inflation a major issue. There's speculation that policymakers could step up the pace of the Fed taper, perhaps as soon as the December meeting. But resurgent Covid cases could derail economic growth once again. This is a delicate time. <IBD>

 

Pains and gains:

  • Precigen (PGEN) reached a 52-week low of $3.64 and has popped +$0.02 to $3.76 or -0.53% 
  • Homology Medicine (FIXX) reached a 52-week low of $5.12 and dropped even lower -$0.09 or -1.71%

 

RegMed/Stem/Cell and Gene therapy’s 35 covered equities’ Advance/Decline (A/D) lines: what’s happening …

  • Friday opened negative at 13 ups/18 downs, 3 flats and 1 acquired, stayed negative at the mid-day at 16/18 and 1 acquired, ending with a negative close of 12 ups/22 downs, 1 flat and 1 acquired;
  • Thursday opened negative at 15 ups/18 downs, 1 flat and 1 acquired, dived negative at 11 a.m. with 8 ups/25 downs, 1 flat and 1 acquired, stayed negative at the mid-day at 10/25, 1 flat and 1 acquired, ending with a negative close of 10 ups/25 downs, 1 flat and 1 acquired;
  • Wednesday opened negative at 4 ups/28 downs, 2 flat and 1 acquired, stayed negative at the mid-day at 8/25, 1 flat and 1 acquired, ending with a negative close of 6/25, 3 flats and 1 acquired;
  • Tuesday opened negative at 10 ups/24 downs and 1 acquired, flipped positive at the mid-day at 18/16, and 1 acquired, ending with a negative close of 16/18 and 1 acquired;
  • Monday opened negative at 13 ups/19 downs, 2 flats and 1 acquired, stayed negative at the mid-day at 12/20, 2 flats, 2 flats and 1 acquired, ending with a negative close of 13/20, 2 flats and 1 acquired;

 

RegMed Investors’ (RMi) pre-open: “sector pullbacks – ups, downs and a maybe? Another weak aftermarket could highlight Friday’s exit lights.” … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/12191

 

Pre-open indication results: 8 HITs: < Biostage (BSTG +$0.39); Regenxbio (RGNX +$1.51); SELL from BUY: Mesoblast (MESO -$0.08); SELL: Sangamo Therapeutics (SGMO -$0.25); SELL into Strength: uniQure NV (QURE +$0.39), Verastem (VSTM -$0.03), Applied Genetic Technologies (AGTC -$0.12), BioLife Solutions (BLFS -$1.20)> and 1 MISS < BUY: Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS -$0.15)>

 

The Biostage (BSTG) Chronicles: Friday closed down -$0.39 to $2.60 with 8,625 shares traded after Thursday closed with 17 shares traded, Wednesday closed flat $0.00 with 2,889 shares traded, Tuesday’s +$0.39 with 2,687 shares traded following Monday closed flat with 35 shares traded after Friday with 0 shares traded. Where is the SEC and Nasdaq monitoring?

  • WHY pump the share price with NO clinical trial from a one (1) and 3/4-year-old IND and a negligence rejection of reimbursement in a terminal death suit.
  • What’s there to invest in, the “Sword of Damocles” hanging over the companies non-going operations?

 

Key Metric - volume

Sector volume INCREASED with 6 of the 12-upside having higher than the 3-month average volume with LOW volume of 7 of 22-downside having higher than the 3-month average volume;

Outstanding Upside Volume:

  • ReNeuron (RENE.L) closed up +$1.50 with 1.013 m shares traded
  • Applied Genetic Technologies (AGTC) -$0.11 with 695.4 K shares traded after Thursday’s +$0.06 with 4.61 M after Wednesday’s 2.253 m shares traded

Outstanding Downside Volume:

  • Athersys (ATHX) closed down -$0.125 with 1.382 shares traded after Thursday’s 4.424 shares traded
  • Biostage (BSTG) closed down -$0.39 with 8,625 shares traded

 

There are clear winners and losers

Jumping with share pricing momentum (12 of 12):

  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY +$2.02 after Thursday’s +$6.25),
  • Ultragenyx (RARE +$1.93),
  • Vericel (VCEL$1.67 after Thursday’s +$0.33, Wednesday’s +$1.23 and Tuesday’s -$0.33),
  • Regenxbio (RGNX +$1.51 after Thursday’s +$0.51 and Wednesday’s -$0.39),
  • ReNeuron (RENE.L +$1.50 after Thursday’s +$4.50),
  • Fate Therapeutics (FATE +$0.97 after Thursday’s +$1.52, Wednesday’s -$2.05, Tuesday’s +$1.76 and Monday’s -$2.12),
  • uniQure NV (QURE +$0.39 after Thursday’s -$0.68 and Wednesday’s -$1.08),
  • Sage Therapeutics (SAGE +$0.15 after Thursday’s -$0.50, Wednesday’s -$0.45, Tuesday’s +$0.33 and Monday’s -$1.18),
  • Voyager therapeutics (VYGR +$0.13),
  • MiMedx (MDXG +$0.10),
  • Caladrius Biosciences (CLBS +$0.035),
  • Precigen (PGEN +$0.02),

Hammered in today’s market (10 of 22):

  • Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA -$5.42 after Thursday’s +$0.50, Wednesday’s -$2.90 and Tuesday’s +$3.97),
  • BioLife Solutions (BLFS -$1.20 after Thursday’s +$0.29, Wednesday’s -$0.44, Tuesday’s +$2.95 and Monday’s +$2.59),
  • Global Blood Therapeutics (GBT -$1.06 after Thursday’s -$0.50, Wednesday’s -$0.51, Tuesday’s -$0.30 and Monday’s +$1.16),
  • Editas Medicine (EDIT -$0.92 after Thursday’s -$0.53),
  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP -$0.53 after Thursday’s +$3.11, Wednesday’s -$0.50, Tuesday’s +$1.50 and Monday’s -$3.85),
  • Biostage (BSTG -$0.39),
  • AxoGen (AXGN -$0.37 after Thursday’s -$0.95 and Wednesday’s -$1.68),
  • Chinook therapeutics (KDNY-$0.27),
  • Sangamo Therapeutics (SGMO -$0.25),
  • bluebird bio (BLUE -$0.21 after Thursday’s -$0.40),

Closing Flat:

  • 1 - Stemline Therapeutics (STML) – acquired

 

Stats:

The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:

  • Friday, the IBB closed up +0.57% and XBI closed down -0.25%
  • Thursday, the IBB closed down -0.27% and XBI closed down -0.58%
  • Wednesday, the IBB closed up +0.03% and XBI closed down -1.27%
  • Tuesday, the IBB closed up +0.57% and XBI closed up +0.50%
  • Monday, the IBB closed down -0.53% and XBI closed down -2.09%

The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:

  • Friday was up +0.32 points or +1.82% at 17.91
  • Thursday was up +0.48. points or +2.81% at 17.59
  • Wednesday was up +0.74 points or +.52% at 17.11
  • Tuesday was down -0.12 points or -0.73% at 16.37
  • Monday was up +0.20 points or +1.23% at 16.49

 

November, the second month of Q4/21:

Friday closed negative with 12 incliners, 22 decliners and 1 acquired

Thursday closed negative with 8 incliners, 25 decliners, 1 flat and 1 acquired

Wednesday closed negative with 6 incliners, 25 decliners, 3 flats and 1 acquired

Tuesday closed negative with 16 incliners, 18 decliners and 1 acquired

Monday (11/15) closed negative with 13 incliners,20 decliners, 2 flats and 1 acquired

Friday closed negative with 12 incliners, 18 decliners, 4 flat and 1 acquired

Thursday closed negative with 15 incliners, 18 decliners, 1 flat and 1 acquired

Wednesday closed negative with 4 incliners, 30 decliners and 1 acquired

Tuesday closed negative with 9 incliners, 24 decliners, 1 flat and 1 acquired

Monday (11/8) closed positive with 29 incliners, 3 decliners, 2 flats and 1 acquired

Friday closed negative with 11 incliners, 19 decliners, 4 flat and 1 acquired

Thursday closed negative with 16 incliners, 17 decliners, 1 flat and 1 acquired

Wednesday closed positive with 28 incliners, 6 decliners and 1 acquired

Tuesday closed positive with 24 incliners, 8 decliners, 2 flats and 1 acquired

Monday (11/1) closed positive with 29 incliners, 3 decliners, 2 flats and 1 acquired

 

The BOTTOM LINE:  What has changed, another cratering session (this week) following a whipsaw week.

the stem, cell and gene therapy sector is morbid and gloomy, with a broad-based decline. Now, the sector is a bit like someone who has gorged on junk food, puked and vomited.

Relative strength has fallowed during the recent stock market weakness – I’m NOT seeing many just a few!

Investors are sitting out these sessions as electronic trading and algorithms do most of the damage; be cautious about substantially adding exposure, especially in sector names.

It's not surprising that after what has been a bad run of negative closes – twelve (12) is an unusual run for the sector undergoing an earnings proctology examination.

  • Q3 earnings reporting season began the tug-of-war between share pricing that is softer than usual and the usual LPS (loss-per-share) to be less than estimates and expectations.

Reiterating, “the stem, cell and gene therapy sector is still seen as vulnerable to extreme low volume moves in either direction, as share pricing risk stimulates their susceptibility!”

I’m STILL a “beware or the cautious man” whose focus has always been “warning analysis” … earnings’ season is NOT over … my advice, trim and skim any new highs if one can!”

WHY do I keep analyzing Biostage (BSTG): When one sees an inextricable wrong and morally repulsive scenario; it takes courage, resolve and patience to stay the course of asking the questions without response!

Who is defining the metrics for investors and keeping you notified of the sector and market fluctuations?  What I provide is a trusted source of share pricing intelligence – it’s more than opinion, I deal in the facts and numbers that back them up.

 

The week in review …

Monday

RegMed Investors’ (RMi) pre-open: After last week's market losses, how should investors respond? … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/12183

RegMed Investors’ (RMi) closing bell: sector declines - it’s not transitory, infamous current terms … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/12184

 

Tuesday

RegMed Investors’ (RMi) pre-open: the sector’s eight (8) session stumble … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/12185

RegMed Investors’ (RMi) closing bell: wham-bam and a no thank you … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/12186

 

Wednesday

RegMed Investors’ (RMi) pre-open: what’s to see today – a fog surrounds sector equities … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/12187

RegMed Investors’ (RMi) closing bell: sentiment’s headwinds obliterate sector’s share pricing … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/12188

 

Thursday

RegMed Investors’ (RMi) pre-open: concerns about risk … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/12189

RegMed Investors’ (RMi) closing bell: sector dives even deeper … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/12190

 

Friday

RegMed Investors’ (RMi) pre-open: sector pullbacks – ups, downs and a maybe? … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/12191

 

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.

Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.