January 30, 2023 7:53am

Two (2) trading sessions left in January, as economics, later week’s Fed decision meeting and jobless claims dominate the market and sector conditions

I write this blog/newsletter to inform investors with facts and supporting numbers focused on what they need to hear that others won’t say or write about - truth! Subscription is coming, it’s not conscription but, an offer to join our collective of like-minded investors!  Join me … in the NO spin zone.

The 8:00 a.m. edition

Remember that overnight and pre-open actions in futures don't necessarily translate into actual trading in the coming day’s session. My interpretation of the morning’s numbers is written to be informative; it’s built on will happen behind the headlines today, not tomorrow or yesterday …

 

Dow futures are DOWN -0.65% or (-233 points), S&P futures are DOWN -0.94% or (-38 point) and NASDAQ futures are DOWN -1.28% or (-156 points) early in the pre-open – so far

Stock futures traded lower on Monday,

European markets were lower,

Asia-Pacific markets mostly fell.

 

Henry’omics:

We need to understand the macro to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies …

Friday, indexes moved to the upside as “econs” pressed.

The Dow closed UP +28.67 points (+0.08%), the S&P closed UP +10.13 points (+0.25%) while the Nasdaq closed UP +109.30 points (+0.95%)

Also from Friday, interesting outlook, “Former Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers urged the Federal Reserve to refrain from signaling its next move after an expected interest-rate hike next week because of the economy’s highly uncertain outlook.”

Indexes came-off a winning week as January rally continued. Last week, the Nasdaq gained 4.3%, the S&P 500 +2.5% and the Dow +1.8%.

Economic Data Docket: Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity, January (-15.0 expected, -18.8 during prior month).

·         The Federal Open Market Committee meets on Tuesday and Wednesday, when the Fed is expected to hike rates.

·         Tuesday will also include the Case-Shiller home price index, Chicago PMI and consumer confidence.

·         Wednesday will include mortgage applications, ADP national employment, S&P Global manufacturing PMI final, vehicle sales, construction spending, ISM manufacturing PMI, JOLTS job openings, and EIA weekly crude stocks.

·         Thursday will include Challenger layoffs, initial jobless claims, productivity (preliminary), durable goods and factory orders.

 

Friday’s (1/27) … RegMed Investors’ (RMi) closing bell: “the tide came without a full moon effect. Big economic number’s drop and pop as sector luckily moves to the upside.” … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/12807

 

Ebb and flow:

Q1/23 – 2 holiday, 10 positive and 8 negative closes

Q4

·         December – 1 holiday, 13 negative and 8 positive closes

·         November -1 holiday, 14 negative and 8 positive closes

·         October -1 neutral, 11 positive and 9 negative closes

 

Companies in my headlights – It’s your decision; I provide ideas and context: INDICATIONS

Risk is HIGH today, lay back and see how Monday and the week evolves

Expect the worst … hope for the best!

 

The BOTTOM LINE: I try to keep it simple and short!

I hate to be so negative or contrarian but, this is a NO spin zone and truth is its product.

And I can always be WRONG but, mostly EARLY!

Eric Krull, co-author of "The Lifecycle Trade," noted on Friday's that the Nasdaq had risen 8.9% from the close of the Jan. 6 follow-through day to Thursday's close. That 15-day gain is unusually high. Krull says that "moneymaker" rallies typically see a 5.5% gain over a similar span. For "life changer" rallies, the average advance is nearly 8%. <IBD>

Don’t buy into uncertainty.  

The cell/gene therapy sector’s investors need to understand the … cycle of distress will be with us until we see a better showing of platforms not, just me-too drug development of what I define as multiple companies chasing the same indication.

A couple of companies have become … black holes … of investor sentiment; yet, some get financing to continue the chain around investors’ necks until they recognize it could be forever with “some” of these equities.

I do NOT believe there aren't a lot of cell/gene therapy companies in position yet – UNTIL earnings (Q4) are reported – any breakout is a false hope with the inevitable downside re-occurring.

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.

All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions securities referred to in this publication.