February 13, 2023 4:38pm

Love ‘em or hate them, algorithms and electronic trading moved the sector upward on Monday

Pre-open indications 3 Hits and 1 Miss

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If I have learned one thing as a former research analyst in a venture and public fund now a journalist; it is that your life and your portfolio are largely tied to your knowledge of price movements and questioning pricing targets.

 

The Dow closed UP +377.05 points (+1.11%); the S&P closed UP +46.94 points (+1.15%) while the Nasdaq closed UP +173.67 points (+1.48%)

 

Henry’omics:

We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies

Indexes ascended after suffering weekly declines in multiple months.

Last week’s sessions were losers; the Dow slipped- 0.17%, the S&P 500 -1.11%, and the Nasdaq -2.41%.

Economic Data Docket: more inflation data this week on Tuesday

  • A miss on the Tuesday report would likely signal that the Fed will hike interest rates even more, putting downward pressure on equities

 

Monday’s … RegMed Investors’ (RMi) pre-open: “is your portfolio ready for this week – deservedly? The sector has given-up a lot of ground after four (4) down sessions last week with only three (3)   positive sessions in the month of eight (8) sessions.” … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/12829

 

Pre-open indications: 3 Hits <Sage Therapeutics (SAGE +$0.27), CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP +$1.73), Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA +$1.35)> and 1 Miss <Prime Medicine (PRME +$1.30)>

 

RegMed/Stem/Cell and Gene Therapy’s 35 covered equities’ Advance/Decline (A/D) lines: what happened – differences

  • Monday’s advance/decline line opened negative at 10 up/ 23 down and 2 flats, flipped positive with 23 up/ 11 down and 1 flat at the mid-day, ending with a positive close of 18/17 and 1 flat
  • Friday’s advance/decline line opened negative at 8 up/ 26 down and 1 flat, stayed negative with 7 up/ 27 down and 1 flat at the mid-day, ending with a negative close of 11/24 and 0 flat

 

Key Metrics:

The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators: oscillating to the downside

  • Monday, the IBB was up +1.38% and the XBI was down -0.07%
  • Friday, the IBB was down -0.03% and the XBI was down -0.56%

The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked: illuminating the changes

  • Monday was down -0.16 points or -0.77% at 20.55
  • Friday was down -0.16 points or -0.77% at 20.55

 

Closing Down (10 of 16):

  • Regenxbio (RGNX -$0.72 after Friday’s +$0.02),
  • Chinook Therapeutics (KDNY -$0.51 after Friday’s -$0.29),
  • Brainstorm Cell Therapeutics (BCLI -$0.32 after Friday’s +$0.24),
  • Ultragenyx (RARE -$0.19 after Friday’s -$1.37),
  • AxoGen (AXGN -$0.14 after Friday’s +$0.43),
  • BioLife Solutions (BLFS -$0.12),
  • Precigen (PGEN -$0.09),
  • Mesoblast (MESO -$0.07 after Friday’s -$0.33),
  • uniQure NV (QURE -$0.06 after Friday’s -$0.42),
  • Caribou Biosciences (CRBU -$0.05)

FLAT:

  • Cellectis SA (CLLS)

Closing Up (10 of 18):

  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY +$7.08 after Friday’s -$0.32),
  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP +$1.73 after Friday’s -$1.30),
  • Beam Therapeutics (BEAM +$1.49 after Friday’s -$0.97),
  • Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA +$1.35 after Friday’s -$1.13),
  • Prime Medicine (PRME +$1.30 after Friday’s +$0.54),
  • Verve Therapeutics (VERV +$0.69 after Friday’s +$0.05),
  • Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS +$0.67 after Friday’s -$0.36),
  • Vericel (VCEL +$0.44 after Friday’s +$0.52),
  • Sage Therapeutics (SAGE +$0.27 after Friday’s +$0.21),
  • MiMedx (MDXG +$0.25),

 

Q1/23 – February

Monday closed positive with 18 incliner, 16 decliners and 1 flat

 

The BOTTOM LINE: I try to keep it simple … and short!

The oversold were recognized … as sector sentiment is STILL governed by electronic trading and algorithms.

I do NOT believe there aren't a lot of cell/gene therapy companies in position yet – UNTIL earnings (Q4) are reported – any breakout is a false hope with the inevitable downside re-occurring – it was TRUE again today, Friday.

Upcoming Q4 earnings reporting will present challenges to share pricing.

·         Sage Therapeutics (SAGE) 2/16 – Thursday

·         Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE) 2/16 - Thursday

·         Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS) 2/22 – Wednesday

·         Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) 2/23 – Thursday

·         Vericel (VCEL) 2/23 – Thursday

·         Fate Therapeutics (FATE) 2/28- Tuesday

If you thought of buying on weakness, you might be jumping onto a sinking ship.

Attention remains…  laser-focused on week’s busy economic calendar i.e., CPI; there’s still a bit of hesitation in front of inflation data to really see the reality of the markets and cell and gene therapy sector ability or capacity to move upward.

Another “miss at bat”’ frequency Therapeutics just laid-off 50% of its staff after hearing loss clinical trial fails; now, it will focus on multiple sclerosis – another “hard-way” trial.

 

There are clear losers today … Regenxbio (RGNX), Chinook Therapeutics (KDNY) and Brainstorm Cell Therapeutics (BCLI)

With winners … Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP) and Beam Therapeutics (BEAM)

 

Biostage (OTCQB: BSTG)

Friday closed up +$0.08 with 332 shares traded after Friday’s -$0.20 with 3,961 shares traded, Thursday’s flat with 0 shares traded, Wednesday -$0.01 with 100 shares traded, Tuesday’s -$0.01with 2,300 shares traded and last Monday flat with 0 shares traded. <3-month average volume = 1,301 shares>

·         BSTG has “pulled” its proposed offering … “Withdrawal of Registration Statement on Form S-1 (File No. 333-265741)”

·         This IND – now almost 4 years old without a clinical trial that will last 3-5 years for ADULT patients before BSTG can EVEN consider a pediatric venue!

·         Question; is OTCQB: BSTG a Ponzi scheme (the pump/promote buy and sell agenda) as shares are bought to replace those sold??

 

 My question that resounds, that should be asked is how many companies are at the end of sentiments …  leash?

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.

Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.