April 16, 2024 4:49pm

Elevated risk and rising tensions in the Middle East follows Iran's weekend attacks on Israel

Pre-open Indicators: 3 Positive and 1 Negative Indicators

A 360-degree review of the who, why, when and what happened in the sector as the market and economics surround your portfolio defense.

Never leave an investor uninformed! A trusted source of factual reporting!

The present and future value of RegMed Investors (RMi) NEWS sheds light on the stem, cell and gene therapy sector’s risks to share pricing and the sector’s upside acrobatics and potential downslides.

I write this blog/newsletter about – facts in evidence! 

 

Tuesday: The Dow closed UP +63.86 points or +0.17%, the S&P closed DOWN -10.41 points or -0.21% while the Nasdaq closed DOWN -19.77 points or -0.12%

 

Henry’omics:

We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies …

Indexes wavered on Tuesday after Fed chair Powell said interest rates may need to stay elevated.

The CBOE Volatility Index or VIX, commonly referred to as the fear index, hovered around 19 after popping in the previous session.

April poised to be worst month so far this year for major indexes; the S&P 500 and Nasdaq have both slipped more than 3% while the Dow has lagged, tumbling more than 5%.

Economic Data Docket: New residential construction, including single-family and multifamily homes, tumbled by the largest amount in four years as rising mortgage rates weaken housing activity.

  • Housing starts fell 14.7% month-over-month in March, dropping from 1.55 million units annualized pace to 1.32 million units annualized, according to data from the Census Bureau released Tuesday. Single family starts fell 12.4% month-over-month.

 

All-time Low:

  • Verve Therapeutics (VERX) at $7.04
  • Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA) at $22.20
  • Editas Medicine (EDIT) at $5.91
  • Prime Medicine (PRPE) at $5.34

 

Tuesday’s RegMed Investors’ (RMi) opening bell: “who knows where share pricing goes as the sword of Damocles hangs overhead. An allusion to the imminent and ever-present peril faced by markets suspended from the ceiling by a middle east thread.” … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/13419  

 

Pre-open Indicators: 3 Positive < Blueprint Medicine (BPMC +$0.91), Beam Therapeutics (BEAM $0.00), CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP -$0.76)> and 1 Negative Indicators < Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE -$0.56)>  

 

Advance/Decline (A/D) Line:

  • Tuesday’s advance/decline line at the open was negative with 9 incliner, 25 decliners and 1 flat; ending with a negative close of 6 incliners, 28 decliners and 1 flat
  • Monday’s advance/decline line at the open was negative with 8 incliner, 24 decliners and 3 flats; ending with a negative close of 3 incliners, 30 decliners and 2 flats

 

Ebb and flow of MY covered sector cell and gene therapy session daily “endings”:

Q2/24: 10 negative and 2 positive closes

Q1/24:

  • March, 1 holiday, 8 positive and 12 negative closes
  • February, 1 holiday, 9 negative and 11 positive closes
  • January: 2 holiday, 12 negative and 8 positive closes

 

Key Metrics:

The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:

  • Friday, the IBB was down -0.68% and the XBI was down -0.86%
  • Monday, the IBB was down -1.34% and the XBI was down -2.05%

The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:

  • Tuesday was down -0.83 points or -4.32% at 18.40
  • Monday was up +1.77 point or +10.21% at 19.06

 

Tuesday’s Closing Down (10 of 28):

  • Vericel (VCEL -$1.18 after Monday’s -$0.82),
  • Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA -$1.11 after Monday’s -$1.35),
  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY -$0.98 after Monday’s -$0.80),
  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP -$0.76 after Monday’s -$1.95)
  • Generation Bio (GBIO -$0.57),
  • Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE -$0.56 after Monday’s -$4.13),
  • Regenxbio (RGNX -$0.52),
  • Mesoblast (MESO -$0.48),
  • Fate Therapeutics (FATE -$0.26),
  • Voyager therapeutics (VYGR -$0.26),

Flat (1):

  • Beam Therapeutics (BEAM)

Tuesday’s Closing Up (6 of 6):

  • Blueprint Medicine (BPMC +$0.91 after Monday’s -$2.07),
  • BioLife Solutions (BLFS +$0.32 after Monday’s -$0.82),
  • Sage Therapeutics (SAGE +$0.31),
  • Adverum Biotechnologies (ADVM +$0.08),
  • Harvard Apparatus RT (OTCQB: HRGN +$0.01 after Monday’s $0.00)
  • Homology Medicine (FIXX +$0.0071 after Monday’s +$0.0071),

 

Q2/24 – April

  • Tuesday closed negative with 6 incliners, 28 decliners and 1 flat
  • (4/15) Monday closed negative with 3 incliners, 30 decliners and 2 flats

 

The BOTTOM LINE: Cell and gene therapy sector equities have sold off … 5 sessions and going!

  • Last week, I wrote that I favor … caution over the next few weeks! Wednesday … proved me true, yet again, again, again and again!

 

A telling quote, "For a market reliant on immaculate disinflation, a dovish Fed reaction function, and diminishing tail risks on growth, the continuation of hot growth and inflation data can bring us to a tipping point where a tighter stock vee bond risk premium finally produces a market correction. Inflation risks are also compounded by upside risks to oil due to geopolitical developments related to Russia and risk of further escalation in the Middle East. Additionally, investor positioning is elevated, with cash allocations at historical lows." < JP Morgan's strategy team>

 

The top three (3) performing in the session:

  • Tuesday: Blueprint Medicine (BPMC), BioLife Solutions (BLFS) and Sage Therapeutics (SAGE)
  • Monday: Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE), Blueprint Medicine (BPMC) and CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP)

The worst three (3) in the session:  

  • Tuesday: Vericel (VCEL), Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA) and Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY)
  • Monday: Vericel (VCEL), Sangamo Therapeutics (SGMO) and Homology Medicine (FIXX)

 

Welcome to my world of defining the “grey’ in our universe!

  • Right up front, “I also hate to be so negative or contrarian but, this is a NO spin zone and facts are its product; I can always be WRONG but … I am mostly EARLY!”

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice. Whether information or intelligence is good, bad, or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor, and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication. Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities.

I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.