RegMed Investors’ (RMi) closing bell: bag and tag ‘em, as LPS (loss-per-share) earnings define the week’s share pricing endings

November 6, 2021 10:18am

Q3 earnings of net losses and revenues mostly lag estimates

Pre-open indication results: 6 HITs and 4 MISS

The Biostage (BSTG) Chronicles: the share pricing “promote” and volume “pump” sputtered as 9,003 shares traded flat at $2.60

If you’re looking for sector intel, ideas and facts or Insight in a volatile climate, RMi defines the extenuating factors of share pricing. Who else is tracking a broad representative index of cell and gene therapy equities – the facts are supported by real numbers?

The week in review …

The Dow closed UP +203.72 points (+0.56%); the S&P closed UP +17.7 points (+0.37%) while the Nasdaq closed UP +31.28 points (+0.20%)

Henry’omics:

Indexes rallied to record levels on Friday after the October jobs report came in better than expected.

This week, the S&P 500 gained 2%, the Dow +1.4%, while the Nasdaq rallied 3.1% for its best weekly performance since early April.

Economic Data Docket: job gains for the month of October totaled 531,000. Consensus estimates called for 450,000 jobs added. The report also revised September’s disappointing number up to 312,000 job gains from 194,000 previously, and increased its August number by a similar amount.

Note: Pfizer (PFE) shares jumped +11% after the company said its Covid-19 drug, used with an HIV drug, cut the risk of hospitalization by 89%.

Note: Biostage (BSTG) was flat $0.00 with 9,003 shares traded after Thursday’s flat at $2.60 with 82 shares traded, Wednesday’s down -$0.40 to $2.60 with 1,208 shares traded, r Tuesday’s -$0.10 to $3.00 with 200 shares traded, flat again $0.00 on Monday with 80 shares traded to $3.10 after last Friday’s 162 shares traded, Thursday’s 95 shares traded and last Wednesday’s move from -$0.40 with 216 shares traded until the “pump” was turned-on with 1,676 shares traded to close +$0.10 – where is the SEC?

RegMed/Stem/Cell and Gene therapy’s 35 covered equities’ Advance/Decline (A/D) lines: what’s happening …

• Friday opened negative at 8/25, 1 flat and 1 acquired, stayed negative at the mid-day at 7/25, 2 flats and 1 acquired, ending with a negative close of 11/19, 4 flats and 1 acquired;

• Thursday opened negative at 14/18, 2 flats and 1 acquired, stayed negative at the mid-day at 12/21, 1 flat and 1 acquired, ending with a negative close of 17/16, 1 flat and 1 acquired;

• Wednesday opened negative at 19/16 and 1 acquired, flipped positive at the mid-day at 21/10, 3 flats and 1 acquired, ending with a positive close of 28/6 and 1 acquired;

• Tuesday opened negative at 10/22, 2 flats and 1 acquired, stayed negative at the mid-day at 16/17, 1 flat and 1 acquired, ending with a positive close of 24/8, 2 flats and 1 acquired;

• Monday opened positive at 31/2, 1 flat and 1 acquired, stayed positive at the mid-day at 30/1, 3 flats and 1 acquired, ending with a positive close of 29/3, 2 flats and 1 acquired;

RegMed Investors’ (RMi) pre-open: “not so fast to the sector exit on Friday but, I'm still walking instead of running. A question of what’s considered fair value.” … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/12170

Pre-open indication results: 6 HITs: < Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY +$1.70), Applied Genetic Technologies (AGTC -$0.20), bluebird bio (BLUE -$3.17), Global Blood Therapeutics (GBT -$4.02), Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA +$1.38), Bellicum Pharmaceuticals (BLCM +$0.00), > and 4 MISS <uniQure NV (QURE -$0.78), Vericel (VCEL -$2.61), Editas Medicine (EDIT -$0.32), Sage Therapeutics (SAGE -$1.53)>  

Key Metric - volume:

Sector volume MODERATELY with 5 of the 11-upside having higher than the 3-month average volume with LOW volume of 8 of 19-downside having higher than the 3-month average volume;

Stand-out Upside Volume:

• Chinook Therapeutics (KDNY) +$3.72 with 3.6 m shares traded,

Stand-out Downside Volume:

• bluebird bio (BLUE -$3.17 with 6.11 m shares traded

There are clear winners and losers

Jumping with share pricing momentum (10 of 11):

• Chinook Therapeutics (KDNY +$3.72 after Thursday’s +$1.01),
• Fate Therapeutics (FATE +$1.77 after Thursday’s -$0.73 and Wednesday’s +$2.52),
• Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY +$1.70 after Thursday’s +$12.68, Wednesday’s +$5.22, Tuesday’s +$1.29 and Monday’s +$6.80),
• Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA +$1.54 after Thursday’s -$1.87),
• AxoGen (AXGN +$0.52 after Thursday’s -$2.38),
• Regenxbio (RGNX +$0.50 after Thursday’s +$0.82, Wednesday’s +$1.15 and Tuesday’s +$0.43),
• MiMedx (MDXG +$0.17),
• Sangamo Therapeutics (SGMO +$0.08 after Thursday’s +$1.75),
• Voyager therapeutics (VYGR +$0.02),
• Brainstorm Cell Therapeutics (BCLI +$0.01 after Thursday’s -$0.06),
• Athersys (ATHX +$0.01),

Hammered in today’s market (10 of 19):

• BioLife Solutions (BLFS -$4.73 after Thursday’s +$0.14, Wednesday’s +$3.29 and Tuesday’s +$1.06),
• Global Blood Therapeutics (GBT-$4.02 after Thursday’s -$0.89 and Wednesday’s +$1.16),
• bluebird bio (BLUE -$3.17 after Thursday’s +$0.36, Wednesday’s -$0.08 and Tuesday’s +$0.568),
• CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP -$2.76 after Thursday’s -$3.88),
• Vericel (VCEL -$2.61 after Thursday’s -$1.37, Wednesday’s +$3.07, Tuesday’s +$1.12 and Monday’s -$0.18),
• Ultragenyx (RARE -$2.0 after Thursday’s -$0.26, Wednesday’s +$1.79, Tuesday’s -$1.15 and Monday’s +$2.06),
• Sage Therapeutics (SAGE -$1.53 after Thursday’s -$0.44, Wednesday’s +$3.54, Tuesday’s +$1.20 and Monday’s +$2.01),
• Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS -$0.94 after Thursday’s +$0.87),
• uniQure NV (-$0.78),

Closing Flat:

• 4 – Biostage (BSTG), Bellicum Pharmaceuticals (BLCM), Pluristem (PSTI), ReNeuron (RENE.L) and 1 - Stemline Therapeutics (STML) – acquired

Stats:

The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:

• Friday, the IBB closed down -3.02% and XBI closed down -1.412%
• Thursday, the IBB closed down -1.79% and XBI closed down -0.70%
• Wednesday, the IBB closed up +1.30% and XBI closed up +2.20%
• Tuesday, the IBB closed up +0.64% and XBI closed up +1.29%
• Monday, the IBB closed up +1.27% and XBI closed up +3.79%

The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:

• Friday was up +1.04 points or +6.74% at 16.48
• Thursday was up +0.34 points or +2.25% at 15.44
• Wednesday was down -0.93 points or -5.80% at 15.10
• Tuesday was down -0.38 points or -2.32% at 16.03
• Monday was up +0.15 points or +0.92% at 16.41

November, the second month of Q4/21:

Friday closed negative with 11 incliners, 19 decliners, 4 flat and 1 acquired

Thursday closed negative with 16 incliners, 17 decliners, 1 flat and 1 acquired

Wednesday closed positive with 28 incliners, 6 decliners and 1 acquired

Tuesday closed positive with 24 incliners, 8 decliners, 2 flats and 1 acquired

Monday (11/1) closed positive with 29 incliners, 3 decliners, 2 flats and 1 acquired

The BOTTOM LINE:  Glad the week is over as the sector totally faded while expected but, not with as many dramatic declines!

Expected Q3 earnings …

We are seeing to date, one (1) net income – Bellicum Pharmaceuticals (BLCM), twenty-one (21) net losses to date <uniQure (QURE), Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Regenxbio (RGNX), Sage Therapeutics SAGE), Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE), Voyager therapeutics (VYGR), Solid Biosciences (SLDB) and Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS), CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP), Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA) and Caladrius Biosciences (CLBS), AxoGen (AXGN), Adverum Biotechnologies (ADVM), Verastem (VSTM), Global Blood therapeutics (GBT), Fate Therapeutics (FATE) and Sangamo therapeutics (SGMO) and  Cellectis SA (CLLS) > earning’s releases that initiated Q3 earnings reporting season and beginning the tug-of-war between share pricing that is softer than usual and the usual LPS (loss-per-share) to be less than estimates and expectations.

The stem, cell and gene therapy earnings remaining with Editas Medicine (EDIT) on 11/8, Vericel (VCEL) and Applied Genetic Technologies (AGTC) on 11/9, BioLife Solutions BLFS) on 11/11 followed by Athersys (ATHX) and Brainstorm Cell Therapeutics (BCLI) coming 11/15 (to date).

Reiterating, “the stem, cell and gene therapy sector is still seen as vulnerable to extreme low volume moves in either direction, as share pricing risk stimulates their susceptibility!”

I’m STILL a “beware or the cautious man” whose focus has always been “warning analysis” … earnings’ season is NOT over … my advice, trim and skim any new highs if one can!”

WHY do I keep analyzing Biostage (BSTG): When one sees an inextricable wrong and morally repulsive scenario; it takes courage, resolve and patience to stay the course of asking the questions without response!

Who is defining the metrics for investors and keeping you notified of the sector and market fluctuations?  What I provide is a trusted source of share pricing intelligence – it’s more than opinion, I deal in the facts and numbers that back them up.

The week in review …

Monday

RegMed Investors’ (RMi) pre-open: watch sector portfolio’s six, after a disastrous sector October … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/12162

RegMed Investors’ (RMi) closing bell: waiting for the earnings ramp-up … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/12163

Tuesday

RegMed Investors’ (RMi) pre-open: time to show their cards … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/12164

RegMed Investors’ (RMi) closing bell: you say what, I say why … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/12165

Wednesday

RegMed Investors’ (RMi) pre-open: is today, a post earnings response and some more … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/12166

RegMed Investors’ (RMi) closing bell: markets and sector, the big casino … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/12167

Thursday

RegMed Investors’ (RMi) pre-open: there are sessions I am out-on-the-limb having brought a saw with me … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/12168

RegMed Investors’ (RMi) closing bell: not quite wrong and almost totally correct … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/12169

Friday

RegMed Investors’ (RMi) pre-open: not so fast to the sector exit on Friday but, I'm still walking instead of running … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/12170

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.

Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.